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17402. Syria's Mutating Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- At a distance, Syria's conflict can resemble a slow, painful slog, punctuated by intermittent accelerations and apparent tipping points, influenced by international activity. Zoom in, and one can cast such impressions aside. Diplomatic manoeuvrings have ended up being little more than inertia masquerading as motion. The West used them to pretend it was doing more than it was; Russia exploited them to feign it backed the Syrian regime less than it actually did. Meanwhile, in Syria, one sees neither deadlock nor abrupt transformation; virtually everything has been changing but at a steady pace: the shape of the conflict; civil society dynamics; sectarian relations; and the very nature of the regime the opposition seeks to depose.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
17403. Challenges for Independent News Media in Pakistan
- Author:
- Sherry Ricchiardi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- For two years running, Pakistan has been ranked by international media monitors as the most dangerous place on earth for journalists. Media workers have been kidnapped, tortured, and beaten to death for delving into the nation's potent military apparatus and spy agencies. Bodies have been found with throats slit and flesh punctured with electric drills by Islamic militants, political extremists, and gangsters who take umbrage at what they write.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Torture, Mass Media, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
17404. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
- Author:
- Gregoire Patte
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As the cornerstone of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Mokhtar Belmokhtar was intimately involved in all aspects of AQIM's operations, its tribal relationships, its smuggling operations, and its liaisoning with other terrorist groups. This paper provides details of Mokhtar Belmokhtar's role in AQIM and the effects stemming from his possible demise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and North Africa
17405. Haqqani Network Financing: The Evolution of an Industry
- Author:
- Gretchen Peters
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this report is to understand and outline the financial architecture that sustains the Haqqani faction of the Afghan insurgency. The Haqqani network (hereafter “the network” or “the Haqqan is”) is widely recognized as a semi-autonomous component of the Taliban and as the deadliest and most globally focused faction of that latter group. What gets far less attention is the fact that the Haqqan is also appear to be the most sophisticated and diversified from a financial standpoint. This report will illustrate that the Haqqani business portfolio mirrors a mafia operation, and illustrate why an understanding of the illicit business side of the network is critical to enriching our understanding of the group. In addition to raising funds from ideologically like minded donors, an activity the Haqqan is have engaged in since the 1980s, information collected for this report indicates that over the past three decades they have penetrated key business sectors, including import-export, transport, real estate and construction in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab Gulf and beyond. The Haqqan is employ violence and intimidation to extort legal firms and prominent community members, and engage in kidnap for ransom schemes. According to investigators, they protect and engage in the trafficking of narcotics and the precursor chemicals used to process heroin (although to a much lesser degree than other factions of the Afghan Taliban). The Haqqan is also appear to operate their own front companies, many of which appear to be directed at laundering illicit proceeds. The broad range of business activities in which the Haqqan is engage suggests that the pursuit of wealth and power may be just as important to net work leaders as the Islamist and nationalistic ideals for which the Haqqan is claim to fight.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Taliban, and Arabia
17406. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Alexander Wilner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The most threatening form of US and Iranian competition takes place in the military and security arena. The areas where this competition now gets primary attention are the nuclear and missile arena, and Iranian threats to “close the Gulf.” US and Iranian tensions over Iran's nuclear program have grown steadily over the years. They now threaten to reach the crisis point as Iran produces highly enriched uranium and develops all of the technology necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and as US, European, and UN sanctions become steadily stronger.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Oil, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United Nations
17407. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas S. Yarosh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US and China face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each nation is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
17408. Saving Mothers, Giving Life: Attainable or Aspirational?
- Author:
- Janet Fleischman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Each day, nearly 800 women die around the world from complications in pregnancy or childbirth. That's one woman losing her life, every 100 seconds, every day. And while, from 1990 to 2010, global maternal mortality rates declined by roughly 47%, from about 546,000 to 287,000, the regional disparities are enormous: 85% of all maternal deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—and more than half of these occur in sub-Saharan Africa. These deaths are largely preventable with interventions and training to address complications such as hemorrhage, infection, and obstructed labor, and more broadly with increased access to reproductive health services.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Health, International Affairs, Foreign Aid, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and South Asia
17409. Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The key issue in evaluating the prospects for a successful Transition in Afghanistan is not whether a successful transition in Afghanistan is possible, it is rather whether some form of meaningful transition is probable — a very different thing. The answer is a modest form of strategic success is still possible, but that it is too soon to know whether it is probable and there are many areas where the current level of planning, analysis, and action combined to sharply reduce the chances for success.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, War, Counterinsurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
17410. Political and Social Foundations for Reform: Anti-Corruption Strategies for the Philippines
- Author:
- Michael Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Corruption in the Philippines diverts, delays, and distorts economic development, undermines the quality and credibility of democracy, and reduces the quality of life. That is so not just because of its extent but also because it comes in particularly disruptive and intractable forms. Philippine corruption is an example of the Oligarch-and-Clan syndrome—one found in countries offering significant and expanding political and economic opportunities in a setting of very weak institutions, but a pattern shaped by historical, cultural, and geographical influences specific to the country. Oligarch-and-Clan corruption is particularly disruptive, in development terms. Because of institutional weaknesses and the power of corrupt oligarchs and their followings, it often faces ineffective opposition. More than other syndromes it is closely linked to violence, and sharply limits the state's ability to perform such basic functions as revenue collection, maintenance of institutional foundations for the economy, law enforcement, conflict resolution, and dealing with security threats.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Philippines