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19721. Willing and (un)able. New Defence Policy Guidelines and Reorientation of the Bundeswehr

Author:
Ryszarda Formuszewicz and Marcin Terlikowski.
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 18 May, after two and a half months in office, defence Minister Thomas de Maizière presented updated cornerstones of the ongoing Bundeswehr reform, which has been rebranded as a “reorientation” (Neujustierung). On the same day, new Defence Policy Guidelines (DPG) were published, replacing the previous document of 2003. The core message directed to internal public opinion and to international partners both disappointed and displeased with Germany's troubled record in the security policy domain is laid out in the title of the DPG: “Safeguarding National Interests – Assuming International Responsibility – Shaping Security Together.” The DPG delivered a conceptual foundation for the armed forces' transformation process, which will now be based on defined security policy assumptions—a feature lacking in the original reform announced in 2010 under the pressure of a financial consolidation plan. The document is both an outcome of the deteriorating German stance on the international security stage and an opportunity to push Berlin on the road towards assuming a new, more visible role, as a security actor.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and Asia

19722. South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

Author:
Berenika Stefanska
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 9 July 2011, South Sudan will declare its independence from the Republic of Sudan. The independence comes after 22 years of civil war, which ended in 2005 thanks to an internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The treaty was signed by President Omar al-Bashir and the late John Garang, head of the rebel Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM). It included provisions for a referendum in January 2011 in the 10 southern states to determine their political future. People in the south voted overwhelmingly (98.7%) for independence. The result of the referendum was recognised by the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Most countries already have stated their intention to recognise the Republic of South Sudan.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa

19723. The Egyptian Revolution and its Aftermath

Author:
Mohamed Elagati (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
There is a great similarity between the Egyptian and Tunisian political changes at the beginning of 2011. Not only were there similarities between the two economies—imbalanced development and investment indicators and increasing rates of inflation and unemployment—but also in a symbolic sense in the reaction of citizens to the harsh living conditions. The very same week that a young Tunisian man, Mohamed Bou Azeezi, set himself on fire to object to the municipality's confiscation of the goods he was selling, Egyptian Hamdy Al-Senoosi lighted himself on fire as well, objecting to the confiscation of his “tuctuc”. Many analysts point to differences in the political system: In Egypt, there was allowed some space for political practices, while in Tunisia there existed a very repressive environment to the extent that human rights activists called Zine El Abidine Ben Ali “The Arab Pinochet.” That repression led to the explosion of public outrage in Tunisia. The Tunisian system is a typical authoritarian one while the former Egyptian system was a model of “electoral authoritarianism,” allowing some space of political movement via a sort of “pluralism” (even if it was a facade), a somewhat independent judiciary (even if it was subject to political pressures), something akin to freedom of expression (even if owners of media channels could not cross certain lines) and seats in parliament for the opposition (even if the majority always went to the main party).
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

19724. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel

19725. Asian Regional Policy Coordination

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses two central questions for Asia and the world: (1) What is the purpose of Asian regional policy coordination going forward? (2) Will Asian regional policy coordination substitute or complement global policy coordination? The paper examines the potential coverage and content of such policy coordination, what is meant by Asia in this context, and how Asia fits in with global policy coordination processes. Truman addresses three related aspects of Asian regional policy coordination: macroeconomic policies, reserve management, and crisis management. He concludes that while the countries in the Asian region have not completely exploited the scope for regional policy coordination, more ambitious efforts focused on close integration are not likely to bear fruit, in particular, if they are conceived and promoted under the banner of Asian exceptionalism. These conclusions are based on two main considerations: First, Asian economies differ, and will continue to differ, sufficiently in size and stage of development such that it is difficult to conceive of a successful voluntary blending of their interests. Second, the central lesson of the global financial crisis and its current European coda is that global economic and financial integration has advanced sufficiently that countries can run but they cannot hide individually or in sub-global groups of countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

19726. Rent(s) Asunder: Sectoral Rent Extraction Possibilities and Bribery by Multinational Corporations

Author:
Nathan Jensen, Edmund Malesky, and Dimitar Gueorguiev
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We argue that openness to foreign investment can have differential effects on corruption, even within the same country and under the exact same domestic institutions over time. Our theoretical approach departs from standard political economy by attributing corruption motives to firms as well as officials. Rather than interpreting bribes solely as a coercive “tax” imposed on business activities, we allow for the possibility that firms may be complicit in using bribes to enter protected sectors. Thus, we expect variation in bribe propensity across sectors according to expected profitability which we proxy with investment restrictions. Specifically, we argue that foreign investment will not be associated with corruption in sectors with fewer restrictions and more competition, but will increase dramatically as firms seek to enter restricted and uncompetitive sectors that offer higher rents. We test this effect using a list experiment, a technique drawn from applied psychology, embedded in a nationally representative survey of 10,000 foreign and domestic businesses in Vietnam. Our findings show that the impact of domestic reforms and economic openness on corruption is conditional on polices that restrict competition by limiting entry into the sector.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment

19727. Delivering on US Climate Finance Commitments

Author:
Trevor Houser and Jason Selfe
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
At the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010, the United States joined other developed countries in pledging to mobilize $100 billion in public and private sector funding to help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a warmer world. With a challenging US fiscal outlook and the failure of cap-and-trade legislation in the US Congress, America's ability to meet this pledge is increasingly in doubt. This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses the politics of a range of potential US sources of climate finance. It finds that raising new public funds for climate finance will be extremely challenging in the current fiscal environment and that many of the politically attractive alternatives are not realistically available absent a domestic cap-and-trade program or other regime for pricing carbon. Washington's best hope is to use limited public funds to leverage private sector investment through bilateral credit agencies and multilateral development banks.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, and United Nations

19728. Applying Hubbert Curves and Linearization to Rock Phosphate

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rock phosphate is a critical, nonrenewable resource for which there is no known substitute in agriculture. Cordell, Drangert, and White (2009) use Hubbert methodology (1956) to estimate the peak—the year after which production will monotonically decline—of world rock phosphate production at 2033–34. This note assesses the applicability of Hubbert's (1949) peak methodology to world rock phosphate production, based on (a) the ability of the model to produce accurate in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and stable estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves, and (b) the degree to which the rock phosphate market approximates the theoretical conditions underpinning the Hubbert model. In both respects, the application of Hubbert methodology to rock phosphate is found to be problematic.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources

19729. Do Failed States Produce More Terrorism: Initial Evidence from the Non-Traditional Threat Data (1999-2008)

Author:
Bridget L. Coggins
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Today, Americans are more threatened by weak and failed states than they are by the strong. Or so we believe. A growing developed-world consensus sees failed states as the preeminent global threat. But that consensus - and any new security policy derived from it - rests upon an uncertain foundation; insights into the nature and intensity of threats emanating from failed states remain surprisingly tentative and unsystematic. Using new panel data on state weakness, failure and terrorism (1999-2008), this study examines the relationship between internal anarchy and terror. Among the so-called non-traditional threats, terrorism has received by far the most scholarly and policy attention, but the literature is too incoherent to draw any reliable conclusions regarding internal weakness' influence on a country's likelihood to generate terrorism.
Topic:
Political Violence, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America

19730. Security Council Reform: Past, Present, and Future

Author:
Shashi Tharoor
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
Even though it has been more than a year since I left the service of the United Nations, the one question people have not stopped asking me here in India is when our country, with 1.2 billion people and a booming economy, is going to become a permanent member of the Security Council. The short answer is "not this year, and probably not the next." But there are so many misconceptions about this issue that a longer answer is clearly necessary.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and China