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821. The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 9 December 2023 to 19 January 2024, ACLED records nearly 300 political violence events and at least 726 reported fatalities in Somalia. Most political violence centered in Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab targeted security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Mudug region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 412. Lower Juba region followed, with at least 121 reported fatalities. Most of the fatalities came after battles between al-Shabaab and security forces. The most common event type was battles, with over 500 events, followed by explosions and remote violence, with nearly 180 events. Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab.
Topic:
Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa

822. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule

Author:
Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
Topic:
Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

823. Farmer Protests Across Europe

Author:
Nichita Gurcov, Nicola Audibert, and Cristian Vlas
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Farmer demands for more economic protection and less regulation have led to a surge in protests across Europe in the past thre emonths, and especially in the past three weeks. It is the largest wave since the Dutch farmers' protests against their government's plan to cut nitrogen pollution in July 2022.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Protests, Political Movements, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Europe

824. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
Topic:
Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

825. Q&A: The Worsening Trend of Violence in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Deborah Alois
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On Sunday, 18 February, intertribal violence in the remote Highlands of Papua New Guinea resulted in the death of at least 49 people. This is the worst death toll in an escalating cycle of violence and political unrest in the past year. In this Q&A, Deborah Alois, ACLED’s Pacific region researcher based in the capital, Port Moresby, suggests that the trend will likely persist.
Topic:
Violence, Tribes, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

826. Violent Escalations in Myanmar’s Rakhine State | ACLED Insight

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In Myanmar, territorial gains made by resistance groups have often led to indiscriminate airstrikes by the military junta. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for calm in Rakhine state on 19 March 2024, and ACLED data show just how widespread the phenomenon has become. From 1 November 2023 until 8 March, the military carried out 588 airstrikes across Myanmar, of which 19% were against targets in Rakhine state. Of all strikes recorded in Rakhine so far, 34% have targeted civilians. In Rakhine, military airstrikes started around November 2023 after fighting broke out between the military and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) as a part of Operation 1027, launched by the Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Junta, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Rakhine

827. One Year of War in Sudan

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities.1 In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. Targeted violence in Darfur was twice as likely to be deadly for civilians than targeted violence in other states in Sudan, with 32% of all reported civilian fatalities in the country being recorded in Darfur.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Armed Forces, Civilians, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

828. A Decade After Chibok: Assessing Nigeria’s Regional Response to Boko Haram

Author:
Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele and Chika Charles Aniekwe
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 14 April 2014, Boko Haram abducted more than 250 students, all girls, from their dormitories in Chibok, Borno state.1 Despite intensified offensives by the Nigerian military, the movement and its offshoot — the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) — have persisted as a significant threat to Nigeria and its neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. The audacious attacks perpetrated by both factions on civilians and security posts, coupled with the adverse effects of their activities on vulnerable populations, underscore their adaptability and resilience in the face of sustained national and regional military campaigns by the Lake Chad Basin Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) over the past decade.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Boko Haram, Regional Security, and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP)
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Chibok

829. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

830. Between violence, geopolitical competition, and the quest for social justice: Chad’s road to elections

Author:
Valerio Colosio
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Following three years of transitional government since President Idriss Déby’s assassination, Chad will hold presidential elections on 6 May amid tight political controls by the incumbent leader. In this guest contribution, Dr. Valerio Colosio examines political violence in Chad through two generations of Déby rule and whether the election will confirm the status quo or trigger some deeper transformations, in a moment of big geopolitical changes in the Sahel.
Topic:
Elections, Geopolitics, Social Justice, Violence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Chad, and Sahel