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19601. Issue Brief: What Army for Haiti?

Author:
Arthur Boutellis
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
President Michel Martelly of Haiti was widely expected to make the creation of a new Haitian army official on November 18, 2011, on the anniversary of the last major battle for Haitian Independence in 1803. Instead, he announced the creation of a civilian-led commission that will have forty days to finalize a plan for the creation of the new army, which should be presented by January 1, 2012. The newly elected president has made reinstating the army, which was disbanded in 1995, a priority. A draft of the “Martelly plan,” dated August 2011, called for building an army of 3,500 troops that would be operational within three years and progressively take over as the UN peacekeeping force MINUSTAH withdraws.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Caribbean

19602. Know Your Enemy: An Overview of Organized Crime Threat Assessments

Author:
Mark Shaw
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
There is increasing awareness within police forces and international organizations that organized crime is a growing threat to security. However, due to a lack of data and insufficient knowledge about illicit activities, criminal justice experts are often left chasing shadows. To rectify this problem, more attention has been devoted to developing and using organized crime threat assessments in recent years, particularly for use in vulnerable states that are less resistant to infiltration by criminals. This paper briefly considers the history of organized crime threat assessments, the process in which they have been produced and used, and criticisms that have been leveled against them. Finally, it considers their applicability to fragile and postconflict countries and the kind of requirements that would need to be fulfilled for threat assessments to be an effective tool against organized crime in such contexts.
Topic:
Security, Crime, International Law, and International Affairs

19603. The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention: A Primer

Author:
Paul Romita
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
At a recent conference on conflict prevention attended by over fifty UN member states, a UN official remarked, “we are living in a conflict prevention moment.” In recent years, there has been a surge of interest and activity related to conflict prevention in the UN system, at the regional level and among member states. While the UN has made great strides in refining peacekeeping doctrine and strategy, it has also made significant progress in its political response and preventive activities in recent times. In 2007, the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) established a mediation support unit “to plan and support mediation efforts in the field.” In late 2008, DPA also secured member-state support to create forty-nine additional posts; it now has approximately 270 staff members. While this was less than half of the number of new posts requested by the department, it did help desk officers to more substantially engage on conflict prevention and good-offices work in their portfolio countries. The UN Office in West Africa (UNOWA) has played a critical preventive role in recent crises in Mauritania and Guinea. A UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) was also established in March 2011 to “assist member States and sub-regional organizations in consolidating peace and preventing future conflicts.” In recent years, the African Union (AU) has been an influential mediator in high-profile cases, notably in Kenya (2008) and Sudan (2010–2011). Among the UN membership, especially among African member states, statements calling for the need to strengthen conflict-prevention tools are now consistently voiced. The Security Council, which now holds monthly “horizon scanning” sessions to discuss emerging and ongoing crises, appears to be a part of this trend.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Kenya, Guinea, and Mauritania

19604. Termites at Work: Transnational Organized Crime and State Erosion in Kenya

Author:
Peter Gastrow
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The threat posed by organized crime is not confined to serious crimes such as racketeering, the global drug trade, or human trafficking. For many developing countries and fragile states, powerful transnational criminal networks constitute a direct threat to the state itself, not through open confrontation but by penetrating state institutions through bribery and corruption and by subverting or undermining them from within. Governments that lack the capacity to counter such penetration, or that acquiesce in it, run the risk of becoming criminalized or “captured” states. This paper examines whether Kenya faces such a threat.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Government, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

19605. Making UN Peacekeeping More Robust: Protecting the Mission, Persuading the Actors

Author:
Patrice Sartre
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The debate about robust peacekeeping pits the enthusiasm of “diplomats,” who believe in peacekeeping but worry that it might not succeed in violent situations, against the scepticism of the “military,” who see its failures as proof that the proper role of military forces is war fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

19606. Algeria at the Crossroads, Between Continuity and Change

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria is the only country in North Africa which seems to be relatively immune to the so-called “Arab spring”. Popular protests did erupt in Algeria at precisely the same time as they were enveloping neighbouring countries, but the demands of the protesters never reached a popular consensus calling for the demise of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Drawing on the country's extensive monetary reserves, the Algerian authorities have responded by implementing a series of economic and social reforms, which have further weakened the resolve and unity of the protesters. After repealing the emergency laws in late February 2011, the government appeared to have regained the upper hand, but strikes and demonstrations have continued. Algeria still faces the real prospect of future popular unrest if the government fails in its promise to enact wide ranging political and economic reforms by early 2012. Given the country's geostrategic importance at both regional and international levels, the international community and in particular the EU must do more in order to ensure that Algeria is set on a sustainable path for the future.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa

19607. Good Governance and Bad Neighbors? The Limits of the Transformative Power of Europe

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel and Vera van Hüllen
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The EU\'s Eastern Enlargement is considered to be one of the (few) successful experiments of promoting good – both effective and legitimate – governance. By contrast, the EU\'s transformative power appears to be weak or non-existent vis-à-vis its (old) neighbors in the South and its (new) neighbors in the East. Both are not only marked by \'bad governance\' but also lack a (credible) membership perspective. While the Western Balkans and Turkey have made significant progress towards good governance, both with regard to government effectiveness and democratic legitimacy, the European Neighborhood Countries (ENCs) appear to be stuck in transition or never got that far in the first place. Even when the effectiveness of their governance institutions has improved, they remain well behind the other regions and especially their democratic legitimacy is still wanting or even in decline. The paper shows that there is a correlation between an EU membership perspective and the successful transformation of neighboring countries. Therefore, it has been argued that the ineffectiveness of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is due to the lack of this \'golden carrot\'. However, we argue that the prospects of EU membership stabilizes rather than drives the move towards effective and legitimate governance in candidate countries. Thus, a membership perspective is unlikely to either turn around negative or speed up positive developments in the EU\'s neighborhood. Even if the ENCs received a membership perspective, it would be unlikely to push them significantly towards democratic and effective governance as long as there is no endogenously driven process of change. Given the EU\'s preference for stability and state-building, the ENP does not provide an alternative for promoting good governance either. The ENP clearly lacks transformative power and where it might have some domestic impact, it risks consolidating rather than undermining authoritarian regimes by helping to strengthen their capacities for effective governance.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

19608. Mechanism-Based Thinking on Policy Diffusion. A Review of Current Approaches in Political Science

Author:
Torben Heinze
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Despite theoretical and methodological progress in what is now coined as the third generation of diffusion studies, explicitly dealing with the causal mechanisms underlying diffusion processes and comparatively analyzing them is only of recent date. As a matter of fact, diffusion research has ended up in a diverse and often unconnected array of theoretical assumptions relying both on rational as well as constructivist reasoning – a circumstance calling for more theoretical coherence and consistency. Against this backdrop, this paper reviews and streamlines diffusion literature in political science. Diffusion mechanisms largely cluster around two causal arguments determining the desires and preferences of actors for choosing alter¬native policies. First, existing diffusion mechanisms accounts can be grouped according to the rationality for policy adoption, this means that government behavior is based on the instrumental considerations of actors or on constructivist arguments like norms and rule-driven actors. Second, diffusion mechanisms can either directly impact on the beliefs of actors or they might influence the structural conditions for decision-making. Following this logic, four basic diffusion mechanisms can be identified in mechanism-based thinking on policy diffusion: emulation, socialization, learning, and externalities.
Topic:
Education, International Affairs, Political Theory, and Sociology

19609. Organizing Regulatory Convergence Outside the EU Setting Policy-Specific Conditionality and Building Domestic Capacities.

Author:
Julia Langbein
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Why is regulatory convergence towards EU rules more successful in some policy fields than in others within one EU neighboring country? By comparing Ukraine\'s convergence towards EU rules in the field of shareholders\' rights and technical standards, I challenge prominent explanations for policy change outside the EU that empha¬size misfit and adaptational costs, the institutionalization of EU rules or policy-specific conditionality. In order to deal with the shortcomings of these explanations, it is necessary to disaggregate incentives and capacities of various domestic actors within the particular policy fields. I argue that regulatory convergence in EU neighboring countries is more likely if external actors combine the application of policy-specific conditionality, such as access to the European market, with multiplex capacity-building measures that diversify demand among domestic state regulators and firms and empower them to make their claims.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

19610. You Make Us Do What We Want! The Usage of External Actors and Policy Conditionality in the European Neighborhood

Author:
Esther Ademmer
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In academic and public debates, external actors have been considered to promote their rules most effectively in third countries in cases of high and asymmetric interdependence. Hence, high interdependence of European Neighborhood Countries (ENC) with Russia has been discussed as a major constraint to EU rule transfer. The case of migration policies, however, represents an odd one out: high degrees of interdependence of the ENC and Russia are coupled with compliance with EU rules, whereas lower degrees of interdependence correlate with shallow and selective compliance. The paper investigates the de facto impact of Russia and the EU on the implementation of the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) in this highly interdependent policy field and argues for a change in perspective: adopting a stronger bottom-up perspective on power-based approaches of external governance cannot only account for varying compliance records, but also shows how domestic actors can use multiple external opportunity structures to promote their own agenda.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe