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19591. Afghanistan Ten Years After...

Author:
Slavomír HORÁK
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The article focuses on the analysis of the internal politics of Afghanistan after 2001 and evaluates the results of state- and nation-building. The emphasis on internal politics is the only possible way to understand the processes in the country and work out the strategy for the country after the planned withdrawal (or limitation) of foreign troops from the country. In this context, the fragmentation and deepening cleavages among various social strata in the country (ethnic, sub-ethnic) is considered to be a crucial determinant of the development in the country. Several power groups define diverse attitudes towards the character of the future Afghan state. These circumstances could lead to the new round of the military conflict after the removal of foreign troops which are considered as a negative factor by a large part of the Afghan elite, albeit they serve as one of the stabilization factors in the country. However, the international community has (and will have) limited tools and influence to prevent any prospective conflict in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

19592. Transformation of the German Armed Forces after the End of the Cold War

Author:
Tomás Kucera
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
In July 2011 Germany abandoned conscription. This step is the most significant part of the ongoing reform of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and by no stretch also the greatest change in the entire history of the Bundeswehr. The current reform, however, is only the last one in the long line of attempts to adapt the Bundeswehr to post-Cold-War circumstances and missions. The German Armed Forces have been undergoing an almost uninterrupted process of transformation since the end of the Cold War. In the course of the last two decades the anticipated end-state of the reform has been changing accordingly with respect to the changing perception of strategic assumptions. The strategic reasoning behind the distinct reform attempts is to be analysed in this article.
Topic:
Cold War and Reform
Political Geography:
Germany

19593. U.S. Missile Defence Site in Europe as an Aliance Security Dilemma

Author:
Lukáš KANTOR
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The main aim of this article is to provide a more solid theoretical anchor for numerous past and present debates about the various versions of American missile defence in Europe. The author claims that the neo-realism's concept of alliance security dilemma is the most appropriate framework for Czech, Polish, Romanian, and EU-wide experts'reflections and political decisions regarding the possible accepting of elements of American or NATO missile defence. Under appreciated explanatory power of the concept of the alliance's security dilemma is illustrated in the text on the case of the original Bush's plan of the so-called third pillar in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Poland, Rome, and Czech Republic

19594. Predictioneer's Game: the Collective Violence in Ecuador

Author:
Michal Mochta
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The paper analyses collective violence in Ecuador from the end of September 2010. The situation was characterized as a Coup d'état when violent clashes between hostile camps were identified. The president was attacked by rebellious units of state police that had protested against the planned cuts of benefits and salaries in the law enforcement sector. The society was threatened by local riots, temporary anarchy and violent clashes that led to the declaration of state of emergency by president Correa. On the basis of empirical data, the prediction model is designed according to the analytical tool “Predictioneer's Game“ defined by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. The prediction is aimed at the forecast of the stability of regime in the context of the events from the 30th September 2010.
Political Geography:
Ecuador

19595. The Security-Development Nexus: a Typology, History and Implementation of Changing Paradigm

Author:
Šárka WAISOVÁ
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The article is a response to the contemporary state of research of the security-development nexus and attempts to analyze the heterogeneous area of its interpretations and implementations. It analyzes the ways and describes the development of interpretations of the security-development nexus. The text also offers empirical material to enable looking at the variety of effects. It shows that despite a broad interdisciplinary debate, three general attitudes have been generated. The first one is based on the idea that security is the prerequisite of development, the second one that development is the prerequisite of security, and the third one that security and development go hand in hand. The area of concepts appears to be wide and varied as well. The contemporary concepts differ mainly in whose development and whose security they take into account, and which one from these two values (development or security) is understood as more important and how it is interpreted (what is “security” and what is “development”). On the operational level it is clear, that the security-development nexus is not only an academic and theoretical reflection or pose, but that it also influences the practice and changes the national, as well as the international politics. The presented empirical material does not say anything about the size of the change and the number of actors affected, however, it shows that it is no marginal phenomenon, because it has affected important players in the international system as well as rules governing the system.
Topic:
Security, Development, and History

19596. Comparison of the Use of PMCs' Services by the Administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama

Author:
Vendula Nedvedická and Oldřich Bure
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The article deals with the phenomenon of Private Military Companies (PMCs) and their utilization by the United States of America (US). Its objective is the comparison of the use of PMC services by the administrations of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, respectively. It specifically focuses on the following four areas: capacity (numbers of PMCs deployed and the number of their employees), funding (costs of PMC services), regulation (its forms and laws covering PMCs), control and monitoring (supervision of PMCs and their staff by relevant public bodies). The main finding is that there have been few major changes in the use of PMCs' services, which contradicts president Obama's rhetoric both before and after he assumed office.
Political Geography:
United States

19597. Nepal's Peace Process: The Endgame Nears

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's peace process has moved into a phase of definitive progress. More than five years after the ceasefire, the parties have reached a deal on the Maoist fighters, who will leave the cantonments and enter the army or civilian life. An unofficial deal sets out power-sharing arrangements until the next election. The parties are focusing on the critical task of writing a new constitution, which promises a deep restructuring of the state to become more representative and decentralised. Challenges remain, including from continuously evolving coalition dynamics and divisions within parties. There will also have to be further discussions on the combatants. As the parties discuss federalism, which of all peace process issues goes most to the heart of ordinary Nepalis' expectations and anxieties, groups within and outside the Constituent Assembly will see their options narrow, which could strain the process. Yet, this is still the best chance the parties have had to reach formal closure on the war and to institute some of the fundamental changes they promised, provided they have the courage to make far-sighted compromises.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Nepal

19598. Islamic Parties in Pakistan

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The ability of Pakistan's radical Islamic parties to mount limited but potentially violent opposition to the government has made democratic reform, and by extension the reduction of religious extremism and development of a more peaceful and stable society, more challenging. This is a reflection of those parties' well-organised activist base, which is committed to a narrow partisan agenda and willing to defend it through violence. While their electoral support remains limited, earlier Islamisation programs have given them a strong legal and political apparatus that enables them to influence policy far beyond their numerical strength. An analysis of party agendas and organisation, as well as other sources of influence in judicial, political and civil society institutions, is therefore vital to assessing how Pakistan's main religious parties apply pressure on government, as well as the ability and willingness of the mainstream parties that are moderate on religious issues to resist that pressure.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Religion, and Governance
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

19599. Waging Peace: ASEAN and the Thai-Cambodian Border Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia that caused dozens of casualties and displaced thousands have challenged the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to finally turn its rhetoric on peace and security into action. Cambodia's successful attempt to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site came against the backdrop of turmoil in Thai politics after the 2006 coup that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai pro-establishment movements used this issue to whip up nationalist sentiments against Cambodia as they tried to topple the Thaksin-backed government. The emotionally charged campaigns halted border demarcation and sparked a bilateral conflict. In early 2011, the dispute turned into the most violent clash yet between ASEAN's members, testing its historical commitment to non-aggression and prompting it to get involved. This has raised expectations that it might live up to its stated aspiration to keep peace in its own region. As yet, however, while its engagement set important precedents, it has no significant achievements. More robust diplomacy and leadership are still needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

19600. Environmental Migration: Policy Gaps and Response Strategies

Author:
Chris Perry
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Environmental change exacerbates existing socioeconomic, political, and cultural incentives to migrate. In fact, there will be an estimated 200 million environmental migrants by 2050. As the global climate warms, people will be pushed to move by sea-level rise, drought and desertification, food insecurity, natural disasters, and conflict over scarce resources. This paper examines the links between climate change and migration and identifies gaps in the current international policy and legal frameworks for dealing with environmentally displaced persons. It recommends strategies for coping with these population movements, including better international coordination on migration issues, funding and technical assistance for at-risk countries, and innovative institutional and legal frameworks for potential migration flows.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Migration, United Nations, and Culture