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16501. Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy's Sovereign Debt

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Contagion from Greece, together with domestic political uncertainty in Italy, caused interest rates on Italian sovereign debt to spike in the second half of 2011. As shown in figure 1, the risk spread above German bunds for 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 200 basis points in early July 2011, to a range of 300 to 400 basis points after the July 21 Greek package with its new emphasis on private sector involvement. There was a second surge to the 400 to 500 basis point range in November through January, following the October 27 Greek package that insisted on a 50 percent reduction in private sector claims.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

16502. Transportation and Communication Infrastructure in Latin America: Lessons from Asia

Author:
Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In Latin America, inadequate transportation infrastructure has been identified as an increasingly important impediment to the region's further integration in global trade and a significant factor preventing countries from properly taking advantage of the multitude of regional, plurilateral, and bilateral trade agreements signed in the past decade and a half. This paper examines transport and communications infrastructure initiatives in Latin American and Asian regional trade arrangements and finds several lessons Asia can teach Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

16503. Global Imbalances and Foreign Asset Expansion by Developing Economy Central Banks

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the past 10 years, central banks and governments throughout the developing world have accumulated foreign exchange reserves and other official assets at an unprecedented rate. This paper shows that this official asset accumulation has driven a substantial portion of the recent large global current account imbalances. These net official capital flows have become large relative to the size of the industrial economies, and they are a significant factor contributing to the weakness of the economic recovery in the major industrial economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

16504. Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi

Author:
Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Prachi Mishra
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the "spillover effect." Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

16505. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:
Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia

16506. Prospects for youth-led movements for political change in Pakistan

Author:
Michael Kugelman
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the potential for two types of youth-led political change movements in Pakistan. One is an Arab Spring-like campaign, fuelled by demands for better governance and new leadership. The other is a religious movement akin to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which seeks to transform Pakistan into a rigid Islamic state. The brief discusses the presence in Pakistan of several factors that suggest the possibility of the emergence of an Arab Spring-type movement. These include economic problems; corruption; a young, rapidly urbanising and disillusioned population; youth-galvanising incidents; and, in Imran Khan, a charismatic political figure capable of channelling mass sentiment into political change.
Topic:
Political Violence, Youth Culture, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Arabia

16507. What Works for Women: Proven approaches for empowering women smallholders and achieving food security

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
What changes do we need to empower women smallholders and achieve food security? This question has been asked repeatedly over the past several decades, but transformative changes in both public policy and practice have been few and far between. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), closing the „gender gap‟ in agriculture –or increasing women‟s contribution to food production and enterprise by providing equal access to resources and opportunities –could reduce the number of hungry people in the world by 12-17 per cent, or by 100 to 150 million people.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Gender Issues, Food, and Famine
Political Geography:
United Nations

16508. The Private Sector and Humanitarian Relief

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam believes that the increasing involvement of the private sector in humanitarian relief can add to overall humanitarian capacity . The private sector brings skills and competencies, and is likely to also bring new practices and perspectives to the humanitarian aid community. Any private sector involvement in humanitarian relief must conform with the humanitarian principles embodied in the Red Cross/Crescent and NGO Code of Conduct, including impartial aid based on assessed need, accountability to beneficiaries as well as donors, reduction of future vulnerability as well as immediate relief, and coordination. Oxfam recommends that humanitarian agencies pursue long-term partnerships with private sector entities, so that the private sector's engagement in humanitarian work is strategic, and not just reactive. Partnerships can be bilateral or through consortia, via a variety of modalities. Oxfam has adopted processes for its own engagement with the private sector that it recommends to other humanitarian NGOs. These include screening potential private sector partners to address ethical concerns, potential conflicts with Oxfam's mission and humanitarian principles, and conflicts of interest for the company. Pilot projects can test the working relationship and suitability/appropriateness of contributions before projects are scaled up. These principles apply to private sector humanitarian engagement, including response to natural disasters, conflicts, and complex emergencies, as well as in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Foreign Aid

16509. Gender equality: it's your business

Author:
Lauren McCarthy, Liz Kirk, and Dr Kate Grosser
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This Briefing for Business is intended for senior managers in global and national companies, especially those retailing and producing food and fast-moving consumer goods, and which source goods or labour in developing countries. Although many companies already do much to protect human rights in their operations and value chains, there is more that they can and must do.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

16510. Within and Without the State: Strengthening civil society in conflict-affected and fragile settings

Author:
Liz Hughes
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
There is a growing sense within Oxfam that traditional approaches to working with civil society are yielding insufficient results in conflict-affected and fragile states. This global study was under taken to help develop innovative approaches to strengthening civil society in such setting sand, in particular, to identify lessons for the development of three planned pilot programmes. It was based on a review of existing literature and interviews with representatives of INGOs, academic institutions, and donors, and was complemented by a scoping exercise undertaken in South Sudan in September 2011. The main findings of the global study are as follows.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Political Activism