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15991. The Long and Short of It: Cognitive Constraints on Leaders' Assessments of 'Postwar' Iraq

Author:
Aaron Rapport
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Why did the administration of George W. Bush hold so many mistaken beliefs about the costs of establishing a transformed Iraqi state after the removal of Saddam Hussein? Relatedly, why did the president and senior officials devote so little attention to plans for the postconflict phase of the war, referred to as Phase IV? According to the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), the administration had "no established plans to manage the increasing chaos" in Iraq, adding "when Iraq's withering post-invasion reality superseded [officials'] expectations, there was no well-defined 'Plan B' as a fallback and no existing government structures or resources to support a quick response." Numerous analyses of the administration's assumptions and preparations for the postwar phase of the conflict have argued that leadership in the White House and the Department of Defense grossly underestimated the cost of securing peace in Iraq. President Bush, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and other key administration figures failed to foresee the rise of sectarian violence and ignored officials working on potential postwar problems or left them under - resourced, without the necessary time or guidance necessary to plan effectively.
Political Geography:
Iraq

15992. Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining the Linkage Argument

Author:
Jeffrey W. Knopf
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Is there a connection between nuclear weapon states' policies on nuclear disarmament and the likelihood of nuclear proliferation? Article 6 of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) calls for good-faith negotiations to eliminate nuclear weapons. This has led some commentators to suggest that, unless the NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states are perceived to be seriously committed to and making progress toward disarmament, the nonproliferation regime will unravel. Other observers, in contrast, contend that nuclear weapon state actions on disarmament have no bearing on the factors that might lead to the further spread of nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons

15993. Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
James K. Sebenius and Michael K. Singh
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Since assuming the presidency of the United States in January 2009, Barack Obama has tried both outreach and sanctions in an effort to halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapons capability. Yet neither President Obama's personal diplomacy nor several rounds of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council-China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States-plus Germany (the "P5 1") nor escalating sanctions have deterred Tehran. Iran has not only continued but accelerated its nuclear progress, accumulating sufficient low-enriched uranium that, if further enriched, would be sufficient for five nuclear weapons. Consequently, as Iran makes major advances in its nuclear capabilities, speculation has increased that Israel or a United States-led coalition may be nearing the decision to conduct a military strike to disable Iran's nuclear program.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, and France

15994. Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment

Author:
G. John Ikenberry, William C. Wohlforth, and Stephen G. Brooks
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Confronting a punishing budget crisis, an exhausted military, balky allies, and a public whose appetite for global engagement is waning, the United States faces a critical question. After sixty-five years of pursuing a globally engaged grand strategy- nearly a third of which transpired without a peer great power rival-has the time finally come for retrenchment? According to many of the most prominent security studies scholars-and indeed most scholars who write on the future of U.S. grand strategy-the answer is an unambiguous yes. Even as U.S. political leaders almost uniformly assert their commitment to global leadership, over the past decade a very different opinion has swept through the academy: that the United States should scale back its global commitments and pursue retrenchment. More specifically, it should curtail or eliminate its overseas military presence, eliminate or dramatically reduce its global security commitments, and minimize or eschew its efforts to foster and lead the liberal institutional order.
Political Geography:
United States and America

15995. Debating China's Rise and U.S. Decline

Author:
Michael Beckley and Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Michael Beckley's article deserves attention for challenging the view that the United States is declining because China is rising. Its ambiguous definition of decline, how - ever, sends the wrong impression about the distribution of economic and military power between the United States and China. Without being explicit, Beckley implies that the United States is not declining because the absolute difference of economic, military, and technological capabilities between the United States and China is growing. In contrast, both theory and history suggest that it is more important that the relative distribution of economic and military capabilities between the United States and China is falling: as I propose below, decline is best defined as a decrease in the ratio of economic and military capabilities between two great powers. As a result, even if the United States maintains a large advantage in absolute capabilities, the fact that U.S. capabilities are decreasing relative to China's means that China will find it easier to advance its interests where U.S. and Chinese goals diverge, while the United States' ability to pursue its own interests in world affairs will be increasingly constrained by Chinese power.
Political Geography:
United States and China

15996. Editors' Note

Author:
Sikander Kiani and Michael Brannagan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The latest round of leadership changes at the IMF and the World Bank has generated increasingly intense criticism of the tacit Western hold on governance of these institutions. While this dynamic is indicative of global power adjustments, it also signals a paradigm shift in thought about issues and methodology of development and growth. John Maynard Keynes famously noted the influence economists exert on leaders as: “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” Perhaps it is time, especially in the field of development, to question the traditional monopoly of economists, and to effectively include scientists, anthropologists, and others to provide collaborative thought leadership.
Topic:
World Bank
Political Geography:
China

15997. Introduction

Author:
Raj M. Desai
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The best hope for the world's poor lies in the ability of private aid givers to transform the current system of foreign aid, and to develop partnerships with the public sector, to advance common good.

15998. Global Institutions and Partnerships: The Future of International Development?

Author:
Carol Lancaster and Thomas Pogge
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Touching on various tiers of the global structure-from individual donors to public-private partnerships to multilateral aid agencies-these two thinkers share their perspectives on what can be changed and initiated in the years ahead to alleviate the plight of the world's poor.

15999. Presidential Power and the Internationalization of Domestic Policy Theory

Author:
Eric P. Schwartz and Lawrence R. Jacobs
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The upcoming American presidential election will overlap with a changing political schema. The United States has begun to witness an “internationalization” of its domestic policy. How the next administration adapts to this paradigm shift will have profound implications upon the future of U.S. prominence on the world's stage.
Political Geography:
United States and America

16000. China in Sudan: The Challenge of Non-Interference in a Failed State

Author:
Andrew W. Natsios
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
China has encountered increasing difficulty maintaining its foreign policy directive of 'non-interference' in Sudan, as complex internal conflicts lend an inescapably political dimension to the superpower's economic activities within the developing African country.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Sudan