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15981. The Pain in Spain: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Author:
Charles Powell and Federico Steinberg
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Much recent international press coverage of Spain's difficulties portrays a country rapidly approaching political, economic and social meltdown. Its economy is contracting, its unemployment rate is at unprecedented levels and its sovereign risk premium hovers at apparently unsustainable levels. Spain will undoubtedly require external financial help from its European partners, as well as more time and flexibility to achieve its fiscal targets. But it also has a number of strengths that are too often overlooked. Spending cuts and structural reforms are proceeding at a lively pace, unit labour costs are falling significantly, and exports and productivity are on the rise. In short, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Political Geography:
Spain

15982. Portugal and the Straitjacket of the European Financial Crisis

Author:
Paulo Gorja
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The austerity program negotiated with the Troika (IMF-ECB-EC) and adopted by Portugal in 2011 is having a devastating impact on the Portuguese economy. Although the Portuguese government is clearly fulfilling the measures agreed with the Troika, the final outcome of the adjustment program is not entirely in its hands, but rather awaiting further EU decisions involving measures to stimulate economic growth, mutualisation of public debt and additional steps towards a federal Europe. As time goes by, the negative repercussions – in particular social and political instability, as well as the erosion of the Portuguese democratic regime – are inevitable if there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
Political Geography:
Europe and Portugal

15983. Chavez Stays, Again

Author:
Michael Shifter and Cameron Combs
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez fended off a spirited challenge by Governor Henrique Capriles this fall. But continuing questions about Chavez's health and the country's dismal governance suggest that change may be coming soon. Looking ahead, the opposition will need to address concerns by the very poor that social spending will dry up if Chavez is no longer in office. Meanwhile, political differences and power struggles, and a sense of demoralization, risk undermining Capriles' diverse coalition. The regional scenario would look very different without Chávez. External players should restrain from meddling during this period of uncertainty. Instead, support should focus on trying to ensure that Venezuelans continue to rely on the ballot box in determining the course of a country facing so many daunting problems.

15984. What Can the WTO Teach the IMF? Dealing with Global Financial Crises Amid the Rise of Financial Regionalism

Author:
Suominen Suominen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Despite rising back to prominence during the global economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund remains under severe pressure over its lack of legitimacy and effectiveness. It is surrounded by increasingly vibrant and potentially competing systems of regional financial arrangements. But while it is feared that regional arrangements can undermine the global financial order, they can also help buttress the multilateral institutions that are struggling to manage an increasingly complex global economy. The purpose of this article is to draw on trade, exploring the decades-long efforts to ensure compatibilities between regional trade agreements and the multilateral trading system, to offer lessons to financial policymakers.

15985. Financial Regionalism in East Asia

Author:
Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This article provides an overview of the current state of financial regionalism in East Asia and discusses why and how the East Asian countries should go forward in terms of financial and monetary regionalism. It highlights intra-regional exchange rate stability as an important regional public good and makes the case for greater exchange rate cooperation. To this end, East Asian countries should gradually reduce their exposure to the US dollar and move towards currency basket regimes which would sustain relative intra-regional exchange rate stability while allowing for sufficient flexibility to accommodate idiosyncratic shocks. Against the backdrop of the global and European financial crisis, the article also urges a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of international – and regional – financial integration and calls for a further strengthening of East Asia's regional financial architecture.
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

15986. The GCC and the Arab Spring: A Tale of Double Standards

Author:
Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been confronted with increasing challenges stemming from the Arab uprisings. Internally, they have had to face popular mobilisation and discontent, triggering a mixed reaction, including economic handouts, patronage, limited political and economic reforms as well as military intervention and repression. Externally, they have actively intervened in support of the protest movements in Syria and Libya and enthusiastically facilitated President Saleh's departure from Yemen. At first sight these responses may seem schizophrenic. Upon closer inspection, however, managing instability by shoring up friendly regimes on the inside and expanding the GCC's influence outside represent two sides of the same coin.
Political Geography:
Libya, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

15987. Looking Beyond a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Is Regional Proliferation Inevitable?

Author:
Christopher Hobbs and Matthew Moran
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The past year has seen a steady rise in tensions with regard to Iran's nuclear programme. Iran's economy is being crippled by far-ranging sanctions and the threat of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities looms large on the horizon. Yet the country's nuclear programme marches on, stoking fears that Iran may indeed be seeking to cross the nuclear weapons threshold. In this context, it is timely to consider how key regional players would respond to a nuclear-armed Iran. Many argue that an Iranian bomb would prompt a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. However, a closer examination of the drivers for key regional players shows that this is not necessarily the case. There is a range of non-proliferation tools that could be applied by the West and others to offset this risk.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

15988. Seeking CSDP Accountability Through Interparliamentary Scrutiny

Author:
Jan Wouters and Kolja Raube
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) requires parliamentary accountability. At present, as CSDP-related decisions are increasingly taken in the framework of the UN or the EU, neither the European Parliament (EP) nor national parliaments are able to hold decision-makers accountable. Interparliamentary cooperation can provide added value in bringing about parliamentary scrutiny of CSDP. Nevertheless, despite an official agreement, the EP and national parliaments have different views on what such interparliamentary cooperation entails. There are five conditions – cooperation and complementarity among parliaments, conferential dialogues, coordinated agendas, and comprehensive and comparative scrutiny – that have to be fulfilled to create added value for interparliamentary cooperation on CSDP matters.
Political Geography:
Europe

15989. The Universalism of Human Rights

Author:
Vanessa Boas
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the title suggests, Friedman deals with contemporary human rights culture, which he believes to be a product of modernity. The author reasons that the rise of expressive individualism, which has paved the way for human rights consciousness, is unique to our times and to the developed world. Affluence has allowed the individual to flourish and has given rise to demands for basic rights as a kind of safety net against the perils of individualism. For the author, these trends can be observed all over the developed world, be it in the West or in Asia.
Topic:
Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia

15990. Recent Publications

Author:
Claudia Astarita, Dario Sabbioni, Maria Chiara Slucca, and Lorenzo Vai
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Discussing China's approach to global warming is not an easy task. Beijing's attitude to this sensitive issue has often appeared confusing. Alessandro Gobbicchi's book, which tries to retrace what the People's Republic has been thinking, doing and achieving in this context over the last three decades, is therefore a welcome tool.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China