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1251. The End of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: Causes and Expected Consequences

Author:
Mariam Macharashvili
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
On November 7, 2023, Russia formally withdrew from the Convention on Arms in Europe (CFE), and in December, NATO suspended the agreement, leading to the collapse of one of the largest arms control treaties since the Cold War. The main goal of the treaty was to ensure security and stability in Europe through conventional arms control; through periodical monitoring, information was shared and trust was built between the parties. The new reality, emerging right after the cancelation of the agreement, has become the subject of active discussion in political and academic circles. Our paper aims to analyze the essence and meaning of the CFE agreement, the reasons for it being cancelled, and the expected results
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Russia, and Convention on Arms in Europe (CFE)
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

1252. The BRICS Expansion: Prerequisits and Anticipated Threats

Author:
Mariam Macharashvili
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
On January 1st, 2024, BRICS officially expanded. Initially, it was expected that six new states would become members of this club representing the “Global South” - Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and Argentina. However, Argentina changed its mind at the last minute due to the election of Javier Milei as president. Unlike his predecessor, Alberto Fernandez, Milei is changing the vector of the country’s foreign policy from the «South» to the «West». Despite predictions of its breakup due to heterogeneity, the BRICS bloc has lasted longer than anticipated. During its time, the number of BRICS members has doubled, and there are still many countries interested in joining. As the BRICS countries strengthen their massive economy and even bigger goals, their ability to influence the world order increases, which may ultimately pose a threat to the entire Western free world. This paper will seek to provide brief answers to the following questions within the frame of expert opinion: 1. What is BRICS? 2. What events led to its expansion? and 3. What threats should we expect from the strengthening of the bloc?
Topic:
Alliance, BRICS, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

1253. Political Challenges and Current Threats of Internet Fragmentation

Author:
Vladimer Svanadze
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The positive process of rapid development of the Internet and Internet technologies is accompanied by certain risks that pose a threat to the unity and security of the global Internet network, its stability and sustainable growth. Although the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet are important issues acknowledged by countries within the United Nations framework, some nations persist in creating a national-level Internet policy. This policy aims to control both domestic and external users of the Internet space, seeking to gain an advantage at the international level in using the Internet space as a tool of enforcement. This approach contributes to the fragmentation of the Internet into distinct parts, posing obstacles to its unity and stability. The article aims to demonstrate the political influence of individual countries on Internet fragmentation and, consequently, the potential threats such fragmentation poses to the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet. To begin, when addressing the unity, security, and stability of the global Internet network, it is essential to reference the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) convened by the Secretary-General of the United Nations. This forum was preceded by the adoption of the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society in 2005, which played a pivotal role in shaping the discourse. The agenda notably defined the term “Internet governance” and acknowledged the collaborative involvement of stakeholders in various capacities. Specifically, the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society states, “Internet governance is the development and application by governments, the private sector, and civil society of their roles, common principles, norms, rules, decision-making procedures, and programs that shape the evolution and use of the Internet” (Tunis Agenda for the Information Society, 2005).
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Internet
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1254. Overview of the Russia-Ukraine War: Strategies and Expectations of the Conflict Parties

Author:
Mamuka Zhvania
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Non-objective and confusing viewpoints on the ongoing war in Ukraine often reverberate within the information sphere, and consequently in society, contributing to the dissemination of disinformation. Common suggestions include the notion that the West is weary of supporting Ukraine, Russia’s defeat is not advantageous for them, and that the West is endeavouring to compel Ukraine towards negotiations. The given article aims to elucidate the ongoing developments in the war and present a persuasive response to pertinent questions regarding the dynamics of hostilities and the strategies employed by the parties involved. The following is an analysis of the current stage of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its potential duration, the resources available to each party for conducting warfare, reasons for the delayed assistance from the West, and projections for the future.
Topic:
Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

1255. Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Changes in Russian Politics from the 1990s to 2024

Author:
Mamuka Komakhia
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the post-Soviet period, the Kremlin’s policy regarding the separatist regions of Georgia, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, underwent several stages of transformation. In the 1990s, Moscow positioned itself as a neutral mediator between the conflicting parties. However, following the August 2008 war and the subsequent recognition of the “independence” of these separatist regions, as well as the deployment of armed forces, Moscow became their main ally and security guarantor. Since 2022, after the onset of full-scale military aggression in Ukraine, Moscow has intensified efforts to increase its influence on these occupied regions, aiming for their full integration into Russia’s political, economic, and legal space. The article discusses the stages of transformation in Russian policy towards the occupied regions of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region from the 1990s to 2024, detailing and analysing changes at each stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Separatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Abkhazia, and Tskhinvali

1256. Where Georgia's U-Turn Comes from and Where it is Heading

Author:
Kakha Gogolashvili
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
For 30 years, Georgian governments have pursued European integration, reflecting the will of the majority. They have implemented European standards and reforms, culminating in 2022 with the ‘European Perspective’ and EU candidate status in 2023. Then, unexpectedly, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party began to ignore EU recommendations, prioritizing state sovereignty and independent decision-making. This stance, reminiscent of Putin’s “sovereign democracy,” led to controversial actions like resisting judicial reforms and improving the election code. Instead of aligning with the EU, the government began strengthening its economic ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. The most notable action was adopting the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, mirroring Russia’s 2012 law aimed at controlling civil society and the media. This provoked protests, divided society, and alarmed international partners, increasing Georgia’s isolation from the democratic world and its vulnerability to authoritarian powers, especially Russia. Thus, the key questions are: Why has GD chosen this risky path? With most Georgians supporting European integration, how should the EU and the international community respond to GD’s policies steering the country away from Europe?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

1257. Exploring the Application of AI in the Public Sector: The Case of Estonia and Lessons for Georgia

Author:
Salome Abramishvili
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming societies globally, offering unprecedented opportunities across sectors. The integration of AI into the public sector promises enhanced service delivery, efficiency, and significant decision-making improvements. Nations worldwide recognize AI’s strategic importance and are adopting National AI Strategies (NASs) to guide its development and deployment. This paper explores AI’s evolution and impact in the public sector, focusing on applications and strategic frameworks using Estonia as an example—a pioneer in AI governance within the EU. Estonia’s approach serves as a model for Georgia, a country with post-Soviet roots and EU integration aspirations. By examining Estonia’s National AI Strategy and its implementation, this paper identifies key lessons and recommendations for Georgia to develop its tailored strategy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Public Sector, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Estonia, and Georgia

1258. The Weimar Triangle's Path to Leadership Moments and Future Prospects

Author:
Nino Macharashvili
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In two separate speeches—one at the Sorbonne University in April and the other during his visit to Germany at the end of May—French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe is “fighting to the death” (Macron 2024). Indeed, Europeans who are caught between Xi Jinping’s China, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and the future possibility of Donald Trump’s USA, are the ones who most need unity at this point, but it is precisely because of this sense of insecurity that European unity is eroding. Macron’s last visit to Germany (Scally 2024) showed that Franco-German relations were only a facade manifestation of friendship and solidarity, and that the French and German governments are no longer able to independently decide on the geopolitical direction of Europe. Moreover, even if they can agree on a specific agenda, it is unlikely that it will be shared by the rest of the European Union. The solution to this dilemma is to strengthen the Franco-German union and add Poland as a third member. This makes sense, given that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced the differences in the three states’ perceptions of European security, and renewed the Weimar format for collaboration in the interest of peace and security in Europe. In our article, we will try to briefly answer the following questions: 1. What is the Weimar Triangle? 2. What political factors led to its activation? and 3. What changes might it undergo in the future?
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Weimar
Political Geography:
Europe

1259. Tracking the Trend of Quinoa Price in Bolivia: Structural Breaks and Persistence of Shocks

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann, Ignacio Garrón Vedia, and María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Quinoa has evolved considerably in the past decades, becoming consolidated as a fundamental pillar for Andean farming communities and emerging as a prominent actor in the global superfood market. Despite this, prices of this grain have been characterized by complex dynamics, with substantial fluctuations that directly affect smallholder income. The goal of this research is to analyze Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, identifying both the main events and factors that caused structural breaks in the price trend and the persistence of shocks in time. The approach employed combines, on the one hand, an analysis of the structural breaks by means of the Bai and Perron contrast, together with estimates of long memory using the 2ELW estimator. Also evaluated was the influence of exogenous variables that affect prices, for which the world commodity activity index (Index of Global Real Economic Activity), the Oceanic Niño Index and world quinoa production were considered. The findings show multiple structural breaks in the quinoa price series, related to certain key events. Among the latter are for example changes in research and development, the production and sales boom, and the boost prompted by State initiatives and international cooperation. These breaks are also related to different degrees of persistence in the shocks under the different regimes identified. Although the exogenous variables show no significant short-term effects, it is understood that they may have a relevant influence in different periods. The present study shows the complexity of Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, characterized by several structural breaks. To take proper advantage of this market, producers and policy makers must implement flexible strategies, as well as continuous monitoring of the sector’s progress, considering the key factors that induced price trend changes over the years.
Topic:
Markets, Memory, Price, Quinoa, and Structural Breaks
Political Geography:
South America, Bolivia, and Andes

1260. Current Situation and Prospects of the Quinoa Sector in Bolivia

Author:
Rubén Collao P. and Beatriz Muriel Hernández
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We analyze the quinoa sector situation and prospects in Bolivia, based on both secondary and primary information sources (i.e. surveys of producers and interviews to key actors). The quinoa sector has sustainability problems in production, market shares and price volatility. However, this grain – specifically the royal quinoa from the Southern Altiplano – has great potential to remain in the world market within niches that value organic or regenerative production, as well as to increase national consumption. In this regard, we believe that it is necessary to impulse the quinoa transformation with greater diversification, productive complementation and coordination between the various stakeholders. In this productive dynamics, small quinoa producers can insert themselves into the value chain, which requires the strengthening of their hard and soft skills, as well as greater technical assistance. Finally, the quinoa sector sustainability requires a comprehensive approach that includes good agricultural practices caring the environment, as well as more conscious consumption.
Topic:
Markets, Sustainability, Value Chains, and Quinoa
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia