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31. A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2019, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center began an effort in partnership with the United States Department of Energy to consider a fresh approach to energy in the Americas that is comprehensive in nature and targeted in its approach. Following a year-long period of engagements alongside six representative stakeholder countries participating, the resulting report: “A New US Energy Strategy for the Western Hemisphere,” was launched in March 2020 and will serve as the launch point for additional work by the Atlantic Council on energy and sustainability issues across the hemisphere.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

32. Transforming the power sector in developing countries: Geopolitics, poverty, and climate change in Bangladesh

Author:
Robert F. Ichford
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Governments across South Asia face many challenges as they seek to improve the lives of the more than 1.8 billion people that live in the region. Increasing geopolitical competition—especially between and among China, Russia, and the United States—is one factor that is affecting progress. This “great power competition,” including over the South China Sea, is intertwined with regional rivalries (e.g., India and Pakistan, India and China, and the United States and Iran) and has important economic, military, technological, and environmental consequences. Energy is a key strategic sector in this competition as China pursues its expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure and trade vision, Russia uses arms sales and nuclear energy to expand its regional presence, and the United States confronts Iran and gears up its free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy and Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy) initiative. This issue brief considers the transformation of the electricity sector in Bangladesh. It is the fourth country analysis in the Atlantic Council’s “Transforming the Power Sector in Developing Countries” series. This issue brief applies to Bangladesh the analytical framework developed in the first report in the series, which presents general challenges and strategic priorities for developing countries in the context of their implementation of electric power policies and reforms following the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

33. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region

Author:
Bina Hussein
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
Topic:
Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

34. The Western Balkans in Times of the Global Pandemic

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The global COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken by governments around the world constitute a major rupture to the “business as usual”, and this includes the Western Balkans, too. The pandemic has been overshadowing other developments while also accelerating existing trends, and it will continue to do so. This analysis establishes the COVID-19 pandemic as a critical juncture, a crisis that can permanently shake up institutions and societies. There are considerable dangers beyond the impact of the pandemic on human lives, ranging from an economic crisis which could turn out to be worse than the one in 2008/9, to a heightened crisis of democracy and a geopolitical shift. None of these developments are inevitable and some of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the Western Balkans can be mitigated. By exploring nine critical fields, this analysis will highlight ways in which the pandemic and government responses pose particular challenges: 1. The Role of the State, 2. Democracy and State Capture, 3. Geopolitical Shifts, 4. New Nationalisms, 5. Social Resilience, 6. Environmental Impact, 7. Migration and Health Care, 8. Health Care and Social Security and 9. Economic Implications. With regard to all of the critical fields, the study examines the impact and outlines possible risks and opportunities before identifying specific interventions that could prevent the worst consequences for the region. In its emergency response, the EU needs to include all Western Balkans countries in assistance and post-emergency reconstruction plans, irrespective of the status of their accession talks. The full inclusion of the region is essential so as to prevent dire economic consequences and geopolitical drift. Support to overcome post-crisis economic and social effects should be conditioned on measures to reduce state capture. The pandemic cannot be an excuse for an unlimited suspension of democracy and restrictions on civil liberties must be temporary, proportional and transparent. The EU needs to identify and monitor the restrictions concerning democratic institutions and civil liberties that are permissible during the state of emergency in the Western Balkans. After the pandemic, state-society relations need to be rebuilt and the states of the region need to prioritise communication and education of the population over excessive repression. The spread of fake news is best combatted by clear and open communication, not through restrictions and censorship. Vulnerable groups, such as the Roma, need to be given access to healthcare and be protected from discrimination. The environmental crisis in the region will not be resolved or even ameliorated and faces the risk of becoming sidelined in the interest of a quick economic recovery. The combination of reduced car traffic during the lockdown and the continued record-high lev- els of air pollution have exposed the urgency of decisive action in regulating heavy industry: many large factories keep violating environmental standards and endangering the citizens’ health. To address the economic and social consequences, governments should support SMEs in particular, while also securing food supply for vulnerable groups. Finally, a temporary universal basic income could help citizens who have lost their livelihood. There is both a short- and long-term need to improve the quality of hospitals in terms of equipment, adequate supplies of medication, and reducing overcrowding of acute hospital wards, along with a raise in wages for hospital staff to secure their retention. A joint approach by governments and EU member states is required to address the shortage of medical personnel due to emigration from the region, which puts an additional strain on health care. A careful mixture of short- and long-term measures is needed to prevent the pandemic from turning into an enduring disaster for the Western Balkans. The crisis has also given greater visibility to many structural weakness- es in the region, from the weak health care systems, low trust in the state, to weak democracy and state capture, while at the same time awakening civic consciousness and serving as a backdrop for increased solidarity among citizens. Putting a spotlight on the weaknesses can help tackle them and build more resilient societies.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, Institutions, Services, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

35. Turkey has not become like Italy. Was it science or luck?

Author:
Tülin Daloğlu
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, senior Turkish journalist Tülin Daloğlu provided an insider's perspective on Turkey's struggle with the Coronavirus. The article analyzes the measures that have been implemented since the eruption of the first COVID-19 case in Turkey and their effects on the Turkish public.
Topic:
Governance, Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

36. Ownership in the Electricity Market Property, the Firm, and the Climate Crisis

Author:
Gregory Ferguson-Cradler
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Electricity is a key area in climate mitigation. The sector needs to significantly expand while transitioning to renewable production, all in an extremely short timeframe. This paper fo- cuses on ownership and control in the electricity sector in an era of climate change. Bor- rowing substantially from classical American Institutionalism, heterodox theories and his- tories of the firm, and legal institutionalism, this paper discusses the historically constituted nature of the categories of property, capital, and the firm and how these literatures provide helpful frameworks for analyzing the recent history and possible futures of electricity sec- tors. A short discussion of the recent history of the German electricity sector, particularly the large utility RWE, will briefly illustrate the approach. Climate change mitigation will require revised notions of ownership and an updated theory of the firm, property, and cor- porate governance for the Anthropocene.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Governance, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

37. Miracle or Mirage? Gangs and Plunging Violence in El Salvador

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? In President Nayib Bukele’s first year in office, El Salvador has seen a sharp drop in what long were sky-high murder rates. While the public celebrates his well-known “iron fist” policies, the reasons for success might lie in quiet, informal understandings between gangs and the government. Why does it matter? It is a major feat to reduce killings by the three main gangs in one of the world’s most violent countries. But the precise causes of the decline are complex and often unclear. Recent outbreaks of gang violence and political mudslinging underline the fragility and reversibility of this achievement. What should be done? Sustaining violence reduction is key. The government should prioritise community-focused development, rehabilitation of jailed gang members and more sophisticated policing efforts, including internal checks on security forces. Should gangs keep violence down and cooperate with authorities during the pandemic, Bukele should consider opening channels for local dialogue with them.
Topic:
Crime, Governance, Law Enforcement, Reform, Violence, and Gangs
Political Geography:
South America and El Salvador

38. Unknown Suburbs: Azerbaijani Settlements of the Gardabani Municipality

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since declaring its independence, the Georgian state has been struggling with the integration of its ethnic minorities. The regions densely populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis and Armenians have been passively involved in the social and political processes in Georgia. The combination of the legacy of Soviet ‘national policy,’ an ineffective educational system and socio-economic problems hinder the integration of these regions. This paper will be devoted to the Gardabani municipality, an administrative entity with a significant Azerbaijani population. Several factors have determined the choice of this region for this study. Firstly, geographically speaking, the region represents a suburban area of the cities of Tbilisi and Rustavi. It can be considered as a part of ‘greater Tbilisi/Rustavi’ or a ‘Tbilisi-Rustavi agglomeration.’ Secondly, despite its proximity to Georgia’s political and economic center, the Azerbaijani community in this region has been leading a parallel life and is disconnected from the country’s social and political dynamics. Simultaneously, very little is known about this region and very little research has been carried out on its multi-ethnic population. Unlike the neighboring Marneuli municipality, which has been receiving increasing attention from academia, the media and the non-governmental sector, the Azerbaijani population in Garbadani remains neglected by academic and non-governmental bodies. For instance, there is no comprehensive academic research on the linguistic, historical, ethnologic, social and religious parameters of Azerbaijanis in Gardabani. The absence of reliable works leads to myths and uncertainties regarding Georgia’s Azerbaijanis. Thirdly, the Gardabani municipality has been an artificially fabricated landmass with at least two culturally and geographically unrelated regions which leads to the lack of interaction between the ethnic Georgian and the Azerbaijani population. Nevertheless, the Gardabani municipality has a significant potential due its strategic geographic location. Several strategic pipelines and the Georgian railway cross the region. In addition to infrastructural and economic development, using the potential of human resources is crucial in regional development. Incorporating the Azerbaijani population of the region in Georgia’s domestic socio-political dynamics and removing the ethnic boundaries will reinforce the development of the region. This paper will discuss the economy, religion, education, women’s rights, organized crime, politics and inter-ethnic relationships in the Gardabani municipality. This paper is a first endeavor to describe this region’s Azerbaijani population. I hope that this paper will become a source of guidance for practitioners, scholars, journalists and NGO activists and assist them to implement their projects in this region. I also hope that it will lead to more comprehensive research on this region.
Topic:
Education, Religion, Governance, Minorities, Women, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

39. The Spread of COVID-19 in the Middle East - Problems and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The novel coronavirus (COVID 19) and its side-effects have transformed the contemporary world. Since the pandemic is just now starting, no one really knows what the world will be like after the virus. However, we can confidently say that there will be serious changes as a result of which our planet will no longer be what it was prior to the spread of this virus. These changes naturally concern the Middle East as well. Much like the majority of other states, Middle Eastern countries were also mostly unprepared to meet the pandemic. Many of the governments in the region could not or did not take the impending threat seriously when the virus was spreading in China. Due to this, at the initial stage many governments simply covered up or ignored the facts of the virus spreading in their countries. A little later these governments were forced to admit the existence of the problem, yet they mostly blamed their political rivals for the creation and spreading of the virus. Such an attitude was facilitated by the fact that conspiracy theories are rather popular among Middle Eastern societies and governments. Covering up and disregarding the problem later produced a boomerang effect for these countries and their citizens. Most of the Middle Eastern governments went on to introduce radical measures (closing places of prayer where mass gatherings take place). However, in many cases these measures were already too late in coming – the coronavirus had spread throughout the entire Middle East. At the same time, the spread of the virus in the Middle East is further facilitated by the faulty healthcare system, the lack of doctors, the low level of education, unending civil wars, conflicts and a large number of refugees as well as the desire of governments to hide the actual data as much as possible (for example, according to the official Syrian statistics, only one person was infected with the novel coronavirus before March 25 while the Assad regime introduced a curfew in the capital city of Damascus in order to combat the illness. According to independent sources, the novel coronavirus has already spread all over Syria and there are casualties, too). At the same time, many Middle Eastern states lack sufficient medical equipment in order to analyze and fully document persons who have contracted the virus.
Topic:
Health, Governance, COVID-19, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Middle East

40. Strengthened Civil Society and Effective Cooperation in Democratic Urban Governance

Author:
Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report has been produced in the framework of the Empowering Civil Society for a More Democratic Local Governance Project funded by the scope of Republic of Turkey and European Union supported Partnerships and Networks Grant Program. TESEV is the lead, Şişli Municipality and Association of Union of Citizen Assemblies are the co-applicants, and the Checks and Balances Network is the associate of the project. The transition from the classical management approach to the governance approach, in which private sector and non-governmental organisations take on roles in determining public policies, has been the dominant discourse of politics for more than a quarter century. Instead of a hierarchical and monolithic bureaucratic process, this approach envisions a management triangle that engages other stakeholders. However, these governance principles have not been fully put into practice in Turkey and those that have been implemented have not yielded the expected results. The present study aims to test these statements at the level of local governments and politics. Its purpose is also to open up a discussion based on the findings of interviews and roundtables conducted in ten cities in Turkey and of a comprehensive survey administered to a nationally representative sample of civil society organisations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organization, Governance, Democracy, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East