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171. Understanding Colombia: History and Background

Author:
Marco Palacios
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Ever more frequently, one hears that Colombia is at the point of disintegration. This concept could be developed in several ways. Let us look at two of them. A report in TIME magazine about a territory of 40 thousand square kilometers that President Pastrana marked out as a demilitarized zone in 1998, so as to proceed with peace negotiations with the FARC, claimed that: “Colombia is in danger of being divided into three parts, along lines dictated by the nation's mountain geography. The Marxist guerrillas are ascendant in the south; the government controls central areas and large urban centers; and right-wing, army backed paramilitary forces...hold sway in much of the north.” (Latin American Edition, September 28,1998).
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

172. U.S. Interests and Options in Colombia: An Alternative Framework

Author:
Cynthia J. Arnson
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the last several months, and beginning most decisively in the spring of 2002, U.S. policy toward Colombia has gone through a significant shift. Traditionally defined in terms of counter-narcotics, and then expanded under Plan Colombia to include areas of democratic and economic strengthening and peace, U.S. policy is now focused squarely on security issues: improving the capacity of the Colombian government to combat left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries; establishing an effective military presence throughout the national territory on which other state programs depend; and fighting the drug trade that finances all illegal armed groups. To illustrate the shift, consider the statements of two high- ranking U.S. officials. In August 2001, Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman told a Bogotá press conference that “we support Plan Colombia because...Plan Colombia recognizes that a negotiated settlement is the only way to achieve peace.” By March 2002, Secretary of State Colin Powell told a House subcommittee that “we have to help Colombia save its democracy from narcotraffickers and from terrorists.” The following discussion aims to understand how and why this shift came about, as well as its implications for U.S. interests and policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

173. Russian Health and Social Welfare: Limited Progress

Author:
Judyth L. Twigg
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It has become routine for Russian policy makers to characterize their various health and social problems—rising male mortality, HIV/AIDS, illegal drug use, even pension system reform—as threats to the stability and national security of their country. Russia's importance to American national interests was thrown in sharp relief by the events of September 11 and their aftermath. A stable, prosperous Russia is a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. The fact that so many of Russia's health and social indicators remain stagnant or in decline, despite limited improvement along some dimensions, should therefore be troubling to the United States.
Topic:
Government, Health, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

174. The Nuclear Dimension of U.S.-Russian Relations: Missile Defense, Arms Control and 'Loose Nukes'

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The United States and Russia are entering an important stage following the Presidential summit of May 2002. Since Presidents Bush and Putin first started getting to know one another last year, they have been declaring the onset of a fundamentally new relationship, based on a new framework for strategic cooperation. Both leaders have declared that the Cold War is over and that our two countries can exist as friends.
Topic:
Cold War, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

175. The United States and Russia in Central Asia: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran

Author:
Fiona Hill
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Before 1991, the states of Central Asia were marginal backwaters, republics of the Soviet Union that played no major role in the Cold War relationship between the USSR and the United States, or in the Soviet Union's relationship with the principal regional powers of Turkey, Iran, and China. But, in the 1990s, the dissolution of the Soviet Union coincided with the re-discovery of the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, attracting a range of international oil companies including American majors to the region. Eventually, the Caspian Basin became a point of tension in U.S.-Russian relations. In addition, Central Asia emerged as a zone of conflict. Violent clashes erupted between ethnic groups in the region's Ferghana Valley. Civil war in Tajikistan, in 1992-1997, became entangled with war in Afghanistan. Faltering political and economic reforms, and mounting social problems provided a fertile ground for the germination of radical groups, the infiltration of foreign Islamic networks, and the spawning of militant organizations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU first sought to overthrow the government of President Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan, later espoused greater ambitions for the creation of an Islamic caliphate (state) across Central Asia, and eventually joined forces with the Taliban in Afghanistan. With the events of September 11, 2001 and their roots in the terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, Central Asia came to the forefront of U.S. attention.
Topic:
Cold War and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Taliban, and Soviet Union

176. U.S.-Russian Relations Ten Months After September 11

Author:
Robert Legvold
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
When American Airlines #11 exploded into the North Tower of the World Trade Center on September 11, in one respect, it was like the neutron Enrico Fermi sent smashing into the core of a uranium atom in 1934, changing the world, but in ways only half-perceived. True, the scientific community recognized that the split atom released “nuclear energy” more powerful than a million steam engines, and so their minds turned to imagining industrial technology in a world of limitless electricity. As late as 1938, the year Fermi received his Nobel prize, thoughts were more of what Mussolini had lost in losing Fermi by way of industrial advances than, as one newspaper of the day put it, “the admittedly far-fetched potential for so-called 'nuclear bombs.' "
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

177. America and the Global Energy Challenge

Author:
Hal Harvey
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Energy is at once the lifeblood and the bane of the modern world. Fossil energy has fueled tremendous economic growth over the past 150 years. The economic history of the United States is largely the history of extracting and using coal and oil. At the same time, the profligate use of these energy sources has created the world's most pressing environmental problems, and led to major national security concerns for the United States. Energy consumption is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions, smog, acid rain, oil spills, and nuclear waste. American dependence on oil from the Middle East forces our hand on foreign policy and imposes high economic and human costs. It is becoming increasingly clear that America's—and the world's—current diet of fossil energy is not sustainable.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Science and Technology, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Middle East

178. Sustainable Growth: Do We Have a Choice?

Author:
Paul V. Tebo
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Growth has always been a driving and motivating force for people, for business and for nations. The old adage, “you are either growing or shrinking, there is no middle ground,” seems to hold up well over time. And, historically, when economic growth and environmental protection come head-to-head, economic growth usually wins. But, does this really have to be the case?
Topic:
Development, Environment, Science and Technology, and Treaties and Agreements

179. Population and the Environment

Author:
Joel Cohen
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Humans have influenced environmental changes in the past, and vice versa. The two-way interaction between people and their environments will continue in the future. In the coming half-century, the human population will probably be larger, more slowly growing, more urban, and older than in the twentieth century. No one knows whether humans will be more internationally mobile. These changes, with uncertain environmental consequences, result from human choices, individual and collective, and are therefore subject to influence by programs and policies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and OPEC

180. Free Trade and Environmental Protection

Author:
Daniel C. Esty
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
From the protests in the streets of Seattle during the World Trade Organization's 1999 Ministerial Meeting to the chaos surrounding the 2001 G-8 Summit Meeting in Genoa, the backlash against globalization is increasingly evident. One dimension of this backlash centers on environmental concerns. While economic integration and trade liberalization offer the promise of growth and prosperity, environmental advocates fear that freer trade will lead to increased pollution and resource depletion. At the same time, free traders worry that over- reaching environmental policies will obstruct efforts to open markets and integrate economies around the world. They often see environmentalists as blindly anti-free-trade and protectionist. “Trade and environment” tensions have therefore emerged as a major issue in the debate over globalization. This paper explores the contours of these tensions and argues that trade policy and environmental programs can be better integrated and made more mutually supportive.
Topic:
Development, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology