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71. The European Commission on the Policy Brief brink of a green recovery Will it be able to deliver?

Author:
Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Greening the huge Corona recovery investments and the revised Multi Annual Framework is marketed as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The European Commission is keeping its Green Deal ideas at the heart of its Next Generation EU package, but meanwhile the recovery measures of individual Member States are aimed mostly at ensuring the jobs and businesses of the grey economy. Moreover, an east-west divide is emerging over the Commissions’ green ambitions. Successful implementation will certainly depend on the steering authority the Commission might acquire. This policy brief analyses the effectiveness of key steering instruments available to the Commission. And it analyses how this effectiveness is influenced by the political context of the European Council.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Green Technology, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

72. Powering the Globe: Lessons from Southeast Asia for China’s Global Energy Interconnection Initiative

Author:
Edmund Downie
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
China’s Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) initiative presents a transformational vision for meeting the world’s growing power demand with a globally interconnected electricity grid. The concept involves ultra-high-voltage transmission lines strung across vast distances and smart grid technology tapping large-scale renewable power sources. Chinese President Xi Jinping first touted GEI’s goal to “facilitate efforts to meet the global power demand with clean and green alternatives” at the UN General Assembly in 2015. The ambition of the GEI vision is enormous, especially since there is very little cross-border trade in electricity around the world today. Regional electricity integration initiatives championed by development banks and multilateral organizations have largely struggled against the formidable political, economic and technical complications that accompany interstate electricity trade. China has seen these challenges firsthand in its participation in the Asian Development Bank’s Greater Mekong Subregion electricity trade endeavor, which has progressed fitfully since the 1990s amid regional infrastructure gaps and uneven political support from member states. This report, prepared as part of the Belt and Road Initiative series published by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, uses a case study of power trade in the Greater Mekong Subregion to assess the prospects for GEI in catalyzing energy integration around the world. It discusses why Greater Mekong Subregion integration has been slow, how GEI might help accelerate interconnection in the area, and what lessons the region offers for understanding the overall outlook for GEI. Based on this study, the author finds the following: Establishing a GEI-style global energy grid backbone by 2070 would require overcoming an extraordinary set of political challenges. The global grid outlined by GEI for the coming decades serves more as a demonstration of technical potential than a strict blueprint to be implemented. The limited scale attained thus far by the Greater Mekong Subregion project for grid integration and cross-border electricity trading demonstrates the headwinds such multinational efforts can face. Weak internal power sector development in recent decades has left some member states without the generation surpluses and robust power grids necessary to support meaningful levels of trade. In addition, power trade requires a strong degree of interstate political trust, motivated engagement by national utilities, and support from civil society players for the specific generation and transmission projects involved. Integration backers have historically struggled to build consensus across this diverse array of stakeholders. While enormous generation and transmission infrastructure projects are core components of the GEI vision and dovetail with the interests of China’s domestic proponents, considerable debate persists about their merits for fostering the renewables transition. Ultra-high-voltage transmission, a specialty of Chinese utilities, is a particular flashpoint. State interest in cross-border trade has been increasing across many regions in recent years, and more gradual gains in power trade around the world that can aid the renewable transition and bolster regional solidarity are possible. China can contribute greatly to this process: as an investor and contractor in grid projects abroad, as a member state of integration initiatives in Asia, and as an advocate of grid integration in international fora. GEI’s ultimate impact will depend in part on how advocates within China reconcile tensions between strengthening cross-border power trade and promoting domestic priorities, such as advancing the country’s own industrial policy objectives.
Topic:
Climate Change, United Nations, Infrastructure, Green Technology, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. The New “Rare Metal Age”: New Challenges and Implications of Critical Raw Materials Supply Security in the 21st Century

Author:
Frank Umbach
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
When Beijing threatened to restrict China’s export of rare earths (widely used in numerous important civilian and military technologies) to the United States at the end of May 2019, the world was reminded of China’s rare earths export disruption in the autumn of 2010 amid a maritime territorial conflict between China and Japan. In the past few years, the worldwide attention cast on the future supply security of rare earths and other critical raw materials has increased in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries owing to the global expansion of “green technologies” (including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles and batteries, and smart grids) and digitalisation as well as equipment and devices embedded with artificial intelligence. In this paper, the term “critical raw materials” (CRMs) refers to raw materials critical to industries that are also import-dependent on them, and to new technologies which often have no viable substitutes and whose supply, besides being constrained by limited recycling rates and options, is also dominated by one or a few suppliers. CRMs include rare earth elements (REEs), which comprise 17 different elements (see Figure 4). The global race for the most advanced technologies dependent on CRMs has intensified the competition for access to as well as strategic control of REEs, lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and other CRMs. This working paper analyses the global supply and demand balance of three CRMs (REEs, lithium and cobalt, the latter two being major raw materials for batteries) in the foreseeable future and whether ASEAN countries can play a role as producers and suppliers of CRMs. It also examines potential counterstrategies for mitigating and reducing the global demand for CRMs, such as substitution, reduced use of CRMs, and recycling and re-use.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Digital Economy, Green Technology, and Metals
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Asia

74. The End of ‘Business as Usual’? COVID-19 and the European Green Deal

Author:
Francesca Colli
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a clear and drastic effect on our daily lives and political priorities. But what implications does it have for the EU’s climate action and the Von der Leyen Commission’s flagship policy, the European Green Deal? The crisis may be a ‘make or break’ moment for the EU to act on climate change through its recovery plan.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Green Technology, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

75. Revisiting EU Climate and Energy Diplomacy: A Starting Point for Green Deal Diplomacy?

Author:
Franziska Petri
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One of the innovations of the new European Commission’s proposal of a European Green Deal (EGD) is to build a “Green Deal Diplomacy”. While this ambition has not yet materialized, the proposed new diplomacy does not emerge in an empty space, as the EU has already started to develop explicit climate and energy diplomacies since 2011 and 2015 respectively. As such, it will be essential for the EGD diplomacy to learn from past successes and missed opportunities of the previous attempts to formulate and implement EU external ambitions in policy areas related to the European Green Deal.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, European Union, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

76. The EU’s Green Deal: Bismarck’s ‘What Is Possible’ Versus Thunberg’s ‘What Is Imperative’

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The European Union’s Green Deal, a €1 trillion, 10-year investment plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 (relative to 1990 levels), has been hailed as the first comprehensive plan to achieve climate neutrality at a continental scale. The Deal also constitutes the Union’s new signature mission, providing it with a new raison d’etre and a shared vision of green growth and prosperity for all. Because the stakes are high, a dispassionate, realistic look at the Green Deal is necessary to assess to what extent it reflects ‘what is politically attainable’ and to what degree it does ‘what is required’ in the face of continuous global warming. This paper considers the ambition, scale, substance and strategy of the Deal. It finds that the Green Deal falls short of ‘what is imperative’ but also of ‘what is politically possible’. By choosing to make the Green Deal dependent on global finance, the European Commission itself closes down all policy space for systemic change as well as for ambitious green macroeconomics and green industrial policies, which would enable achieving climate neutrality in a socially and economically inclusive manner. Hence, Otto von Bismarck would have been as unpersuaded by the Green Deal proposal as Greta Thunberg, who dismisses it as mere “empty words”.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Green Technology, Green New Deal, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

77. Central Bank Mandates, Sustainability Objectives and the Promotion of Green Finance

Author:
Simon Dikau and Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the extent to which addressing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable finance fit into the current set of central bank mandates and objectives. To this end, we conduct a detailed analysis of central bank mandates and objectives, using the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database, and compare these to current arrangements and sustainability-related policies central banks have adopted in practice. To scrutinise the alignment of mandates with climate-related policies, we differentiate between the impact of environmental factors on the conventional core objectives of central banking and a potential supportive role of central banks with regard to green finance and sustainability. Of the 135 central banks in our sample, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while another 40% are mandated to support the government’s policy priorities, which in most cases include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affect central banks’ traditional core responsibilities, most notably monetary and financial stability, even central banks without explicit or implicit sustainability objectives ought to incorporate climate-related physical and transition risks into their core policy implementation frameworks in order to efficiently and successfully safeguard macro-financial stability.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Finance, Green Technology, Sustainability, IMF, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Sustainable Energy through Green Bonds in India

Author:
Olaf Weber and Vasundhara Saravade
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Emerging economies, such as India, will need significant international investment in climate action in order to transition toward a future that is low-carbon and climate-resilient. India needs fossil fuels at an affordable price and needs to protect itself against price fluctuations. It can meet these needs by investing in Canadian oil companies, given the country’s political stability and rule of law. As an emerging economy, India could attract greater foreign direct investment into its economy through green bonds, a climate finance debt instrument that addresses environmental and climate-related challenges. Not only are green bond issuances linearly increasing over the years, but they also seem to be driven by institutional pressure, provided in part by the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s regulation, as well as by the informal advocacy efforts of market stakeholders. These findings are consistent with institutional theory and contribute to it by introducing the regulatory perspective of the green bond market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
India and Asia

79. What do investors in electric vehicles technologies want?

Author:
Bettina Kast, Eva Bortolotti, and Joëlle Noailly
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
With 25% of worldwide emissions due to road transport, the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs), full battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles – presents many promises to mitigate climate change. Despite its rapid growth, the market share of EVs vehicle remains low in Europe. Norway leads the EV market with 10% of total vehicle stock, followed by Iceland (3.3%), the Netherlands (1.9%) and Sweden (1.6%) (IEA, 2019). This Policy Brief presents the results of a survey among European clean tech investors examining which policy instruments and design can best mobilize private investments to advance e-mobility technologies.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Green Technology, Private Sector, Transportation, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Europe, Norway, and Netherlands

80. What drives them to invest in the sustainable mobility transition ? Evidence from a conjoint experiment on European investors' policy preferences

Author:
Eva Bortolotti
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Substantial private investment is required if public policy objectives aim to increase the market share of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and prevent locking-in emissions-intensive development pathways. To maximize the effectiveness of future policies and successfully attract private capital, policy makers need to gain a better understanding of how investors behave, and of how policy design can drive investments decisions. This paper leverages an adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) method to investigate the policy preferences of 41 European investors affiliated with different investment institutions. Findings reveal that investors' characteristics as institution type and size of assets under management affect investors' preferences over different e-mobility policy attributes. Furthermore, this study shows that behavioral factors, namely investors' a-priori beliefs on the impacts of climate change and the COVID-19 crisis, play a role in determining investors' policy preferences. By providing an analysis of investors' behavior, this research can support policymakers to design more effective policy instruments to attract investments in electric mobility during and after the COVID-19 crisis.
Topic:
Environment, Green Technology, Investment, Private Sector, COVID-19, Ecology, Motor Vehicles, and Cars
Political Geography:
Europe