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1. Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China is the world's leading emitter and a key player in the international community's fight against climate change, but its climate action remains underpinned by a black box of policies, actors, and international influences. As China accelerates action to achieve domestic and international climate goals, it is more important than ever to detangle these webs and peer into the black box, to develop an understanding of what motivates China's decision-makers and how climate policy choices are made. In this insightful new report, Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration, Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics Guoguang Wu conducts an in-depth investigation of China’s climate-related policies, politics, governance, and international relations. He finds that the Xi Jinping administration has paid special attention to climate action by advancing the green technology revolution and reducing energy dependence. However, at the same time, there are signs that China may be relaxing rather than strengthening its climate commitment. By conducting a deep dive into the evolving political actors and departments working on China’s climate agenda, Guoguang finds that ultra-concentrated political power and fragmented governance under Xi and the Chinese Communist Party pose obstacles to China’s climate action over the next five years.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2. The European Union can go green and lower dependencies on China

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Some Western pundits see the ongoing policy push from the European Union to de-risk supply chain dependencies on China as a threat to gains from decades of economic globalisation. Others regard Chinese industrial strengths in green technologies as unbreakable and see attempts to diversify the EU’s reliance as setting back global efforts to fight climate change. Yet, diversifying sources of critical minerals away from China and other large suppliers is a necessity in today’s volatile geopolitical climate. As well as actively pursuing new partnerships overseas to lower large dependencies on single sources, EU member states should fully harness new regulatory tools, such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, to diversify sources of critical minerals and exploit the Net-Zero Industry Act to support the production of green technologies and leverage European resources, capabilities and know-how. Contrary to conventional thinking, Europe is not starting from scratch when it comes to developing strategic supply chains in green, digital and defence technologies. Over time, there is ample potential for de-risking critical minerals to have a positive impact on the EU’s supply chain resilience and its contribution to lowering global emissions.
Topic:
European Union, Green Technology, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China and Europe

3. Embracing green tech innovation is part of a Saudi dual energy strategy

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest oil exporters with a single-source economy heavily reliant on oil income, yet it simultaniously seeks to position itself as a leader in clean energy innovation. While this may be dismissed as nothing more than ‘greenwashing’, the country’s specific green energy pathway can be understood as part of a broader redesign of the Saudi national identity.
Topic:
Oil, Economy, Green Technology, Innovation, Identity, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

4. De-risking by promoting digital solutions for green tech: Going Dutch?

Author:
Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Giulia Cretti, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the growing demand for technologies that will accelerate the green transition exposes European countries to risks. Most attention is devoted to strategic dependencies on China for critical raw materials (CRM) and components that are necessary for such technologies. However, the data-driven digital elements and applications used, for instance, to optimise energy use are also relevant, as they intensify cybersecurity and data privacy-related concerns. To de-risk Europe’s strategic dependencies in this field, adopting a balanced approach between ‘promoting’, ‘protecting’ and ‘partnering’ is essential. This Clingendael Policy Brief focuses on the ‘promote’ angle by exploring the role of the Dutch government and private sector in fostering the Dutch digital green-tech industry. With its track record in innovation within the EU, the Netherlands is well placed to boost the commercialisation of digital green technologies through procurement. Moreover, the Netherlands could lead the discussions on defining cybersecurity standards and interoperability norms at EU and international forums.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Digital Technologies, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

5. Trust and trade-offs: How to manage Europe’s green technology dependence on China

Author:
Alexander Lipke, Janka Oertel, and Daniel O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
“De-risking” is the guiding motif of the EU’s new approach to China, particularly in green technologies where Chinese companies are striving for full dominance. For Europe, these same industries are supposed to generate future prosperity, enable the green transition, and enhance security through greater energy independence. As economic growth, climate goals, and national security cannot all be maximally achieved together in these sectors, European policymakers need to weigh these up and decide which to prioritise, when, and how. Instead of individually using incentives and trade tools ad hoc, at random, and in insufficient doses, member states should revolutionise their approach with: a real push in political leadership, enhanced coordination at the EU level, and clear prioritisation backed up by credible arguments. Policymakers need to define politically where the risks are greatest and what constitutes a tolerable dependency, actively seek partners in the world to preserve competition, and communicate clearly about the necessary trade-offs. A key question for Europeans to ask immediately is whether they trust Chinese companies to form the backbone of Europe’s green transition. The answer will determine the options available to them.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Green Technology, Trust, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

6. Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The new European Commission will seek to improve Europe’s capacity to manufacture green technologies. Member states agree on this headline aim, but they are divided on how to achieve it and the level of priority to give it. Some member states want to double down on building an effective green industrial policy, others place greater priority on keeping down the costs of green technology and so believe that they need to continue to import some green technologies from outside Europe, at least for now. The EU can ill afford this diversity of approaches. To benefit from economies of scale, it needs to act as a bloc. To move the union beyond national approaches, the European Commission should spearhead a common strategic understanding of the challenge it faces, put in place a credible financial package for research and development for the next green technology wave, and prioritise a limited number of areas for innovation over the next decade.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Green Technology, European Commission, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:
Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

8. De-risking and decarbonising: a green tech partnership to reduce reliance on China

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Heather Grabbe, and Axel Källenius
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Trade in renewable energy goods is a global public good; all countries gain when others cut emissions, and all suffer from climate change if decarbonisation is delayed. Yet this trade depends on China, which controls most of the world’s production of solar panels and electric vehicle batteries, and some of the global trade in wind turbines. These supply chains are vulnerable to disruption, natural disasters and weaponisation by China, which has already exercised its dominant position in some critical raw materials to put pressure on other countries. Part of the European Union and United States response to reduce reliance on China is reshoring production, but this is economically inefficient given their limited access to critical raw materials and high production costs. Moreover, Chinese firms are far ahead of the rest of the world in green tech manufacturing and innovation, and in extraction and processing. To reduce reliance on China, incentive-aligned governments and businesses should form a green tech partnership. This would produce green tech with the aim of decarbonising faster, while ensuring greater diversification of resources and improving security of supply. Each partnership economy would use its comparative advantage within a new green-tech supply chain. The aim is to supplement, not substitute, the Chinese supply chain, since both will be needed to meet rising global demand for green tech, including in China. Although such international coordination is difficult, the partnership would offers benefits to many different countries. Emerging economies that are rich in critical raw materials and/or have moderate wages would gain economic development opportunities. The US and the EU should share technology and provide financing, as they will gain from reduced dependence on China and from sourcing than is still cheaper than reshoring. China would have more room to use its clean tech to meet its own decarbonisation targets. The partnership could be organised through a combination of trade and investment agreements, together with tech transfer and financial agreements, under some form of inter-governmental oversight. The dependence of all countries on China for green tech is so great that non-market incentives might also be needed, such as subsidies or, preferably, a system of carbon pricing within the partnership.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Risk, Renewable Energy, Supply, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

9. Navigating the Crises in European Energy

Author:
Michael Grubb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The energy crisis engulfing Europe is a crisis of both gas and electricity markets, with huge cost impacts on consumers across all European countries. In Britain, half of typical household energy expenditure arises from electricity. This paper examines how the cost of gas-powered generation feeds through to electricity bills, on the principle of marginal cost pricing, setting the price for most of the time though it accounts for only about 40% of GB generation. Combined with the steep decline in wind and solar costs over the past decade, this has resulted in an unprecedented degree of ‘cost inversion’ in the electricity system. We offer estimates of the increase of revenues across the wholesale market, and outline five principles for reform for addressing the combined challenges of energy costs and accelerating low-carbon transition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:
Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe