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61. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

62. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

63. Politics in Indonesia: Resilient Elections, Defective Democracy

Author:
Ben Bland
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
he pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency. Incumbent President Joko Widodo is the front-runner to defeat long-time rival Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election on 17 April. Constrained by compromises and knocked off balance by the rise of identity politics, if Jokowi wins a second (and final) term, he is unlikely to make significant progress on much-needed economic, legal, and political reforms. Despite these concerns, there is hope for the future with a new generation of politicians from outside the elite now seeking to follow Jokowi’s path to national office. Indonesia’s future will depend on how far they use their electoral mandates to shake up a defective system.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

64. Rethinking Fiscal Policy: Progressive US Politics Meets Radical Economics

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Recognition of the need for greater government intervention in the economy is increasingly shaping the US political debate, with this shift paralleled among prominent economists. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign has emboldened Democratic presidential hopefuls to advocate bold platforms involving larger government. Coincidentally, some prominent economists are advocating greater government expenditure to address ‘secular stagnation’. This is unlikely to result in a radical shift away from the post-Reagan small-government policies, but the centre of gravity has shifted towards recognising a role for more government intervention.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

65. Drivers of Violence in Israel-Palestine

Author:
Nathan Stock, Khaled Elgindy, and Muna Shikaki
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted panel discussion surrounding the release of MEI scholar Nathan Stock's paper, "There Is No "Status Quo": Drivers of Violence in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict." In his paper, Stock examines surges of violence within the sociopolitical context of continued occupation, Israel’s unwillingness to recognize Palestinian statehood, and the absence of a strong, representative Palestinian leadership. The report highlights trends such as the Trump administration’s radical reduction of aid to Palestinians, the absence of a plan to elect a Palestinian leader to succeed President Abbas, and the tense political environment in Israel as worrying indicators of increased violence on the ground. Nathan Stock was joined in conversation with Khaled Elgindy (Brookings Institution) to explore the key themes of his paper and their relevance to policymaking. Muna Shikaki, correspondent for Al-Arabiya News Channel, moderated the conversation.
Topic:
Elections, Occupation, Conflict, Violence, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

66. Elections that will shape the EU more than ever befor

Author:
Augustin Palokaj
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
European elections this year, to take place on 23-26 May, are considered to be one of the most important in the history of the European Union. This might sound exaggerated or at least something that has been heard before. But there are many reasons why this time things are different. The EU is at the crossroads, performance, record low unemployment and fewer member states find themselves in economic difficulties or excessive deficit. Trust in the EU and support for membership is increasing among citizens in most member states. However, the general picture remains mixed and any flaw is widely exploited by with mixed picture on the state of the union: divided more than ever on core issues such as common values, solidarity, migration, free movement and the rule of law. On the positive side, however, there is a pretty good economic eurosceptic forces. Many challenges will have to be addressed urgently, starting immediately after the European elections. The results, which will most probably confirm a decline in support for traditional mainstream parties, will affect the election of a new President of the European Commission, a new President of the European Council and other key figures in EU institutions. This time it will not be easy, since many national leaders have questioned the automatic respect for the principle of “Spitzenkandidat” (the lead candidate put forward by the political group able to create a majority in the European Parliament, that becomes the President of the European Commission) and will try to return this power to elect the Commission’s President to the heads of states and governments, with the Parliament expected to rubber-stamp their choice. The Parliament could fight back and this may create a politically motivated power struggle between two major EU institutions.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe and Brussels

67. Understanding Bolivia's Nightmare

Author:
Gabriel Hetland
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Debate continues to swirl around the questions of what led up to Morales's resignation and what has happened since.
Topic:
Social Movement, Elections, Democracy, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

68. The Future of the European Union: Scenarios for the Start of the New Legislature

Author:
Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A few months after the European Parliament elections, and a few weeks before a new European Commission is fully operational, the European Union is facing old and new challenges, both domestic and international. Internally, the EU will soon be testing these new institutions. In the recently elected European Parliament, nationalist and Eurosceptic political forces are a minority, but pro-European mainstream parties, which have the numbers to control the proceedings of the Parliament, have not been able to consolidate a stable and comfortable majority. The new European Commission has encountered setbacks in the confirmation procedure of three of its members and will therefore fully assume its responsibilities with some delay on 1 December.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, Politics, Elections, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, United States of America, and European Union

69. The Israeli Election Results and Israel's Foreign Policy

Author:
Nimrod Goren and Merav Kahana-Dagan
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Benjamin Netanyahu won Israel’s election and declared he would form a new rightwing government. This will affect diverse aspects of Israel’s foreign policy. This document includes commentaries by Mitvim Institute experts regarding the election results and their possible foreign policy implications: Dr. Ehud Eiran argues that while Netanyahu presented himself ahead of the election as a super-diplomat, he also proved he is part of the global populist wave; Dr. Nimrod Goren claims that Israel’s right-wing government will have more leeway to implement its policies given weak domestic and foreign opposition; Dr. Roee Kibrik foresees increased tensions between Israel and leading global democratic forces; Dr. Lior Lehrs explains why the new government will face the threat of flare-ups at several Israeli-Palestinian flashpoints; Dr. Moran Zaga points out why Netanyahu constitutes an obstacle to promoting ties with Gulf States, as does the lack of a broad Israel strategy on relations with the Arab world; Former Ambassador Michael Harari claims that renewed peace process with the Palestinians is needed to take advantage of global and regional opportunities; Kamal Ali-Hassan assesses that Israel’s Arab population is losing trust in the state establishment and will seek to promote regional ties on its own; Dr. Eyal Ronen urges the new government to deepen its partnership with the EU rather than to continue its efforts to weaken and divide it; Yael Patir argues that Israel’s crisis with the US Democratic Party could deepen, especially as the 2020 presidential election draws near.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

70. The European Parliament Elections Results: Possible Significance for Europe and Israel

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, Emanuele Giaufret, Omer Gendler, Noga Arbell, Ariel Shafransky, Eran Etzion, and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
A policy roundtable on the 2019 European Parliament elections results and their possible significance for Europe and Israel took place on 30 May 2019 at Tel Aviv University. It was organized by the Israeli Association for the Study of European Integration (IASEI), Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, the EU Studies Program at Tel Aviv University, and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The event featured EU Ambassador to Israel H.E. Emanuele Giaufret, Ariel Shafransky and Noga Arbell from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Maya Sion of IASEI, Dr. Nimrod Goren of the Mitvim Institute, former diplomat Eran Etzion, and Omer Gendler of the Open University.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Israel