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351. The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and Its Implication in East Asia

Author:
Young Kwon Sohn
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
After the extended and fierce campaign, Obama finally clinched the victory in the 2012 presidential election. By gaining more than 300 electoral-college votes, which are disproportionately huge given his popular vote margin of around two percent over Romney(50% vs. 48%), he can legitimately claim national mandate for the next four year, although conservatives will be reluctant to embrace that mandate. After making a history four years ago by becoming the first black president to occupy the White House, he made another history this year by recapturing the presidency amid the still evolving Great Recession with the high unemployment rate around 7.1%. Given this historic nature of Obama’s second term, this paper aims to show how Obama was able to maintain an exceptionally competitive campaign despite the extremely bad national economic conditions. From the widely accepted consensus that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is largely determined by the economic conditions of the election year, Obama’s successful presidential campaign needs explanation in one way or another. Following that, the paper also attempts to predict what the post-election U.S. East Asia policy look like. Will the post-election U.S. policy be different from the mainline policy of the last four years? If not, what would be rationale of the policy consistency? This paper will address these questions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

352. A New Mediterranean Political Landscape? The Arab Spring and Euro-Mediterranean Relations

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has placed the Mediterranean region at the centre of the international agenda. The popular uprisings that originated in Tunisia soon expected to other countries acquiring a regional dimension. The political processses that have emerged as a consequence of the protests have so far responded to three different dynamics: revolution, repression and reforms. In the first place, in revolutionary countries - such as Tunisia and Egypt - the protests gave put an end to authoritarian regimes and made possible the beginning of a new-born political order. Secondly, repressive regimes - such as Libya and Syria- have spared no efforts to silence criticism and to disperse the protests with excessive use of force, committing mass human rights violations. In the third place, reformist governments - such as Morocco and Jordan - have adopted political reforms in a wise move, giving an evolutionary response to revolutionary demands. With such a wide range of possible scenarios, it necessary to question the validity of the concept of Arab Spring as a regional phenomenon, since it is a term that encompasses national realities of a very different nature.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Popular Revolt, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia

353. Republic of Cyprus: Parliamentary Elections of 2011

Author:
Lenka Peťková
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The UN Good Offices’ website1 featuring the latest updates on the UN-sponsored Cyprus talks currently gives the accord of 110 meetings of the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders, which translates into a frequency of one meeting in every 9 days. Yet, when the RoC celebrated its 50th anniversary in the Autumn of 2010, the island was still cut into two parts by the ceasefire line that was first marked in 1964.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Elections, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

354. Abraham Lincoln: Leadership and Democratic Statesmanship in Wartime

Author:
Mackubin Thomas Owens
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
No president in American history has faced a greater crisis than Abraham Lincoln confronted in 1861. Although sections of the country had threatened disunion many times in the past, the emergency had always passed as some compromise was found. But in 1861, Lincoln, who had won the election of 1860 because of a split in the Democratic Party, faced a rebellion “too powerful to be suppressed by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings.” By the time of his inauguration on March 4, 1861, seven states had declared their separation from the Union and had set up a separate provisional government called the Confederate States of America. A little over five weeks later, at 4:30 am on April 12, 1861, rebel gunners opened fire on Fort Sumter in Charleston harbor. In response, Lincoln issued a call for 75,000 volunteers to serve ninety days. Denouncing the president’s policy of “coercion,” four more states left the Union. The ensuing war, the most costly in American history, would last for four agonizing years. When it was over, some 600,000 Americans had died and the states of the South had suffered economic losses in the billions of dollars when measured in terms of today’s currency
Topic:
Civil War, Politics, History, and Elections
Political Geography:
United States

355. The World Responds to Iran's Elections: An Early Assessment

Author:
Andrew Boyko, Mark Lewis, and Louise Stenfors Virenfeldt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As the 2009 Iranian elections came to an end, many states and groups waited with anticipation to see who would lead Iran for the next four years. To the concern of many Western governments, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second term as president was confirmed by the Guardian Council after a questionable recount. This paper tracks reactions from countries and groups following the election and assesses their possible implications for the future. The damning exchanges between Iran and the West are reaching a level of hostility that bodes ill for a future rapprochement. If they continue to escalate, and if Iran is unwilling to scale down its nuclear programme, is the possibility of military action against this country coming closer to realization?
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Power, Elections, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

356. Japan under the DPJ: Changes in Foreign and Defense Policies

Author:
Sook-Jong Lee and Young-June Park
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On August 31, 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) landslide victory in the country’s national election brought fifty-four years of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) political dominance to an end. The DPJ won 308 of the 480 seats in the Lower House. Combined with 118 of the 237 seats in the Upper House that it won in July 2007, for the first time, the DPJ now controls both houses. By contrast, the LDP performed miserably. It managed to hold onto only 119 of the original 304 seats that it had held in the Lower House. Since its founding in 1955, the LDP had only lost power very briefly for a ten-month period between 1993 and 1994 when a non-LDP coalition came to power. The DPJ’s rise to power has been remarkable. The party was formed in 1996 during the run-up to the Lower House election of that year. The formation of the DPJ was in opposition to the LDP’s long dominance of Japanese politics and the policies of the reformist parties such as the Social Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party. The DPJ emerged as the third largest party behind the LDP and the now defunct New Frontier Party. By merging with members who had seceded from other opposition parties, such as the New Frontier Party, it would soon come to be a major challenger as it became the second largest party with the 1998 Upper House elections. However, its political influence waned and was only strengthened again through its merger with the Liberal Party, then led by the powerful Ichiro Ozawa in September 2003. This merger would also considerably boost its low public approval rating. However, it still trailed behind the LDP with a comparatively lower approval rating and a smaller number of parliamentary seats. In spite of these initial disadvantages, the DPJ’s victory was mainly due to a public backlash against the neoliberal reforms initiated during the 2001-2006 Koizumi administration and the inefficiencies of the short-lived cabinets of Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and Taro Aso. With this election victory, analysts widely expect that there will be considerable changes in Japan’s domestic and foreign policies under the DPJ. On its domestic agenda, the DPJ is likely to increase its political control over the bureaucracy and to strengthen the social safety net by providing farming subsidies and cash allowances for child-rearing families. In its foreign policy, the DPJ is expected to maintain the U.S.-Japan alliance but pursue a more independent stance than that of the LDP. At the same time, the DPJ will place greater emphasis on improving its relations with other Asian countries. This will also mean that South Korea-Japan relations will be improved as the DPJ addresses from a different perspective the controversial historical issues that have strained relations between the two countries. In general, there will not be significant changes to Japan’s foreign policy while substantial reforms will be focused on domestic political issues. Based on an analysis of the DPJ’s foreign and security policy, this commentary examines the prospects for South Korea-Japan relations as well as changes to Japan’s foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Domestic politics
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

357. Looking toward Elections

Author:
Nicholas Szechenyi and Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The debate in the Japanese Diet remained contentious this quarter as opposition parties challenged the Fukuda government on several legislative issues including the gasoline tax, a new health insurance program for the elderly, and host nation support for U.S. forces. Fukuda's approval rating fell suddenly due to public dissatisfaction with his domestic policy agenda but later rebounded enough to quell rumors of a Cabinet reshuffle prior to the Hokkaido G8 Summit in July. The arrest in early April of a U.S. serviceman charged with murdering a taxi driver in Yokosuka brought negative publicity for U.S. forces.
Topic:
Elections
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

358. PolicyWatch #1298: Democracy in Slow Motion: Oman Goes to the Polls

Author:
J. Scott Carpenter and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, around 400,000 Omani men and women are expected to vote in elections for eighty-five seats on the nation\'s Majlis al-Shura, or Consultative Council. Among the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Oman -- a key U.S. ally and exporter of oil and gas, strategically positioned opposite Iran -- is often considered to be the most politically progressive, perhaps even evolving slowly toward a constitutional monarchy. But the country remains dominated by its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, and for now, the council is limited to advice on public services and infrastructure.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Oman

359. Biélorussie 2006. Manipulation électorale dans une dictature post-soviétique

Author:
Jean-Charles Lallemand
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Lors de l'éclatement de l'Union soviétique en 1991 et de la chute du parti unique, les élites dirigeantes des quinze républiques nouvellement indépendantes semblaient converties au principe démocratique de l'élection libre et pluraliste. Quinze ans plus tard, plusieurs Etats post-soviétiques connaissent au contraire le renforcement de régimes présidentiels autoritaires. Tout en organisant des scrutins pseudo-concurrentiels à échéances régulières, les élites au pouvoir manipulent sans scrupule les élections pour renforcer leur emprise autoritaire. Parmi ces pays, la Biélorussie d'Alexandre Loukachenko est un modèle du genre : elle n'a pas connu de scrutin libre et honnête depuis 1996.
Topic:
Politics and Elections
Political Geography:
Russia and Belarus

360. Addressing Iraq in a Charged Political Environment - Winning the Debate Over the War

Author:
Matt Bennett
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
This memo describes how progressives candidates can attack their opponents’ lack of action on Iraq, characterizing them as “satisfied” with the Bush plan for a permanent US presence there and with all other aspects of the Bush administration’s leadership on the war. It goes on to lay out a number of policy ideas to help change course in Iraq and move America toward success in the war.
Topic:
Imperialism, Military Strategy, Elections, and Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America