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341. Amérique latine -- L’année politique 2014

Author:
Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Guillaume Fleury, Andrés Gómez, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, Kevin Parthenay, David Recondo, Eduardo Rios, and Sebastián Urioste
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, History, Elections, Sports, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Central America, Venezuela, North America, Mexico, Guatemala, and Bolivia

342. Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes

Author:
Serge Nanourou and Abigal Wilson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Burundi is one of few countries in the world to have adopted a gender quota for its legislature in an effort to promote the inclusion and participation of women in the political process. As such, it presents an informative case study on the impact a gender quota can have as a catalyst for more progressive and inclusive governance. Given the International Foundation for Electoral System’s (IFES) commitment to gender equality and women’s participation in electoral processes and government, a thorough analysis demonstrating the effectiveness of quotas is a vital effort that aids IFES in supporting their use as a tool for democratic progress. As detailed in IFES’ Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes, gender quotas in Burundi, which have their origin in the 2000 Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement that marked the end of a long and bloody civil war and have been encoded in Burundi’s Constitution and Electoral Code, have led to significant increases in the number of women participating in government, which is an important initial step in ensuring meaningful participation of all members of society. Perhaps the greatest indicator of success of the gender quota policy in Burundi is the high rate of women’s representation in the legislature. In the 2010 elections, 31% of National Assembly members and 46% of senators were women. Most remarkable is the fact that provisions to ensure quota requirements, which are set at 30% minimum, did not have to be invoked in order to reach these figures. In contrast, the 30% quota was only reached after seats were added in the 2005 elections. Four years prior to that, before provisions ensuring a minimum of 30% of women’s representation in the legislature had been adopted, less than 20% of seats in both the National Assembly and the Senate were filled by women. This marked improvement from election to election is strong evidence for the efficacy of gender quotas in the Burundian context.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

343. Money and Elections in the Maldives

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The International Foundation for Electoral System’s (IFES) in close cooperation with national experts from Commerce, Development and Environment Consulting, conducted a nation-wide survey to measure the prevalence of vote buying in the Maldives during the March 2014 parliamentary elections. This is the first systematic study of its kind conducted in the Maldives and it provides statistical data on vote buying, campaign finance and other election-related issues. It reveals that 37% of the voters have personally witnessed attempts at vote buying. In addition, the Maldivian public is highly cynical of the way in which political parties and candidates spend their campaign funds. At the same time there is very strong public support for campaign finance reforms and, in particular, for combating vote buying. The methodology and sample were designed to be nationally representative with a +/- 3 percent margin of error. The report will be shared with the government, the parliament, the Election Commission, civil society, political parties and others. IFES is currently providing technical support to the Electoral Reform Working Group to formulate amendments to electoral legislation, and remains committed to supporting Maldivian institutions in improving the electoral process.
Topic:
Elections, Finance, Voting, and Campaign Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Maldives

344. Report No.6: A Transforming Arab World: Between Continuity and Change

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Almost three years after the start of the Arab uprisings, it is time to reflect on what has changed and what has not as a consequence of the recent developments in the Mediterranean. Some important steps forward have been taken, as reflected by the increasing weight of civil society organizations, the birth of independent media or the gilding of free elections. However, it is still too early to draw form conclusions on the outcomes of the transitional processes and remarkable challenges lay ahead for Southern Mediterranean countries. Economy, security, and social and political polarisation are among the most pressing priorities.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Politics, Elections, and Media
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

345. The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring

Author:
Lorenzo Vidino
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements - the most organized movements in the Arab world - became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology - even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form - remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Islam, Self Determination, Political Activism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

346. Libya: A Transition Threatened by the Jamahiriyya Legacy (Libye : une transition à l’épreuve du legs de la Jamahiriyya)

Author:
Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
In post-Qadhafi Libya, the authorities are in search of a new art of governing. Despite the legitimacy accorded them by elections, they remain very weak. Without any means of coercion, they are constantly obliged to negotiate for their survival, threatened by those who were not chosen by voters but who instead draw their legitimacy from their participation in the revolution – the militias. The challenge facing the Libyan authorities is not so much to combat these forces but to harness them. Libya has not undertaken a process of “de-Qadhafication.” But for the militias, in particular the Islamists, the presence of former officials and leaders in the state apparatus is intolerable. Thus, on May 5, 2013 they pressured the parliament into passing a law excluding from politics persons who occupied positions of responsibility under the old regime. If the revolutionary brigades continue to impose their will on the government, the fall of Qadhafi’s regime will have not brought about political change in Libya but rather the continuation of former political practices under a new guise.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Arab Spring, Political outlook, Protests, and State
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

347. Europe, the Mediterranean and the Arab Spring: Crisis as an Opportunity

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region is going through one of its most important transformations of modern times. The rise of new leaderships, the emergence of democracies and the persistence of violent conflicts represent a major challenge in one of the youngest and mos dynamic regions of the world. Against this backdrop, the Euro-Mediterranean political research community met in Barcelona to hold the EuroMeSCo Annual Conference 2012.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, International Security, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

348. Where did all the Spartans Go?

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
Well, the Greeks voted on June 17th, but I am confused. What did the voters say? Before the election, polls revealed that 80 percent of the people supported membership in the European Union and the continued use of the Euro. When they voted, those same people cast 52 percent of their votes for parties opposed to the adoption of the austerity program that Greeks feel is being imposed upon them by the more powerful members of the EU—which translates into Germany. Accepting the economic program is an essential agreement in order to remain in the Eurozone. The New Democracy Party garnered the largest vote with nearly 30 percent. The leader of the conservative party, Antonis Samaras, pledged to keep Greece in the Eurozone and to negotiate modifications to the austerity package that Greece must accept in order to receive an additional 240 billion Euros. Somehow, people find the promises of Antonis Samaras unreliable. When the New Democracy Party was in opposition against the socialist PASOK Party—which had accepted the program imposed upon Greece—he rejected it. His reversal leaves his position in doubt among Greeks and the politicians outside with whom he has to negotiate. In short, is he for the austerity package or against it?
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic politics, and Eurozone
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

349. The Return of Old Putin and the New Future of Russia

Author:
Beom-Shik Shin
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin who cautiously entered the Kremlin upon his inauguration in March 2000 is now returning to the presidential office with more craft and determination this May 2012. Going by the announcements of Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Putin received 63.75% of the votes, defeating Gennady Zyuganov (17.19%), Mikhail Prokhorov (7.82%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (6.23%), Sergey Mironov (3.85%) and others to become the next president of the Russian Federation. It had been predicted that Putin would either win by a narrow margin after the second round of voting receiving around 40% of the votes, or he would have had an easy victory receiving around 50% of the votes. His victory though was an overwhelming one, with nearly 64% of the votes. There were controversies nevertheless regarding election fraud. The international election monitoring team dispatched by Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) raised concerns over a number of issues such as questions over the neutrality of Vladimir Churov, the chair of CEC and restrictive media regulations for opposition candidates. Despite these concerns, it would be virtually impossible for opposition candidates to overturn the results. In expectation of such controversies, the Russian government made efforts to minimize criticism of election fraud by installing webcams in ballot boxes. However, rectifying the lack of a fair judgment system should be regarded as a task of utmost urgency if Russia’s election system is to develop. Still, the disputes over election fraud will go on for some time as will the street demonstrations against Putin that appeared after his victory.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Leadership, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

350. DPJ’s Broken Promise and the End of the Anti-Koizumi Era in Japan

Author:
Junghwan Lee
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The Democratic Party of Japan (hereafter DPJ) has ruled Japan since 2009 but is now at risk with Ozawa Ichiro’s departure from the DPJ only after three years. On July 2, 2012, Ozawa, former DPJ president and influential figure in DPJ intraparty dynamics, announced his departure from the DPJ with 49 fellow Diet members. He and his fellows have criticized the DPJ’s election manifesto and fundamental identity as being broken with Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko’s effort to raise the consumption tax. A split of Ozawa’s group from the DPJ seemed inescapable when Ozawa and 56 fellows voted against a bill for a consumption tax hike in the Lower House on June 26, 2012. Noda’s continued support for the consumption tax hike and Ozawa’s reactive choice to break away have increased political uncertainty in Japan. Japan may undergo Diet dissolution and a general election this fall due to the divided DPJ. How can we understand the DPJ’s endogenous collapse and what will be the impact of this political upheaval on Japan’s political future? I argue that DPJ solidarity did not have a strong foundation beyond an anti-Koizumi framework and that there was no intraparty consensus on some DPJ leaders’ new policy agenda, which is not related to the anti-Koizumi framework. When Koizumi Junichiro aggressively enhanced neoliberal structural reforms in the early 2000s, DPJ politicians were at first perplexed because Koizumi’s key agendas were well matched with their “small government” orientation. However, they soon found a solution for the anti-Koizumi framework with a doctrine for “more universal welfare without a tax hike” under the leadership of Ozawa. The DPJ’s differentiation from Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party (hereafter LDP) was successful in the 2007 Upper House election and the 2009 Lower House election. However, Kan Naoto and Noda have tried to deviate from an Ozawa-led manifesto of no tax hike since 2010 because they found that a stable universal welfare system demands sound fiscal conditions and that a consumption tax increase is the only way of relieving the huge fiscal deficit problem. When the anti-Koizumi was exhausted as a core driving force of DPJ solidarity, the DPJ had become stuck in diverging policy orientations between fiscal soundness and no tax hike—and finally split. The divided DPJ symbolizes the end of the anti-Koizumi era in Japanese politics. Koizumi’s structural reform has dominated the discourse of Japanese politics in the last decade. However, the end of the anti-Koizumi era never means the rise of new discourse of Japanese politics. Since the DPJ and the LDP lost their differences on policy orientations, the stable two-party competition structure is dwindling in Japan. The more crucial point is that Japanese political leaders do not have new visions for Japan’s future political economic model beyond Koizumi’s structural reform and the anti-Koizumi framework’s emphasis on welfare.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic politics, and Welfare
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia