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9291. Jordan’s Refugee Crisis

Author:
Alexandra Francis
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated endemic political, economic, and resource challenges in Jordan. As the conflict in Syria enters a protracted state and public discontent and other tensions rise, Jordan has limited its humanitarian response. Yet, the roots of the kingdom’s challenges run deeper than the refugee crisis and if left unaddressed will be harbingers of instability. If Jordan is to confront its national challenges and continue to provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees, the country will depend on increased international support.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

9292. Low-Cost Authoritarianism: The Egyptian Regime and Labor Movement Since 2013

Author:
Fatima Ramadan and Amr Adly
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Authoritarianism under military auspices has been reimposed in Egypt since mid-2013. The state has outlawed protests, strikes, and sit-ins in the public sphere and has subjected public spaces and private media to tight surveillance. It also has mounted repression of the independent labor movement. When taken together, these factors suggest that the labor movement is likely to wane in the near future. Whether this will last over the long term remains uncertain.
Topic:
Human Rights, Labor Issues, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

9293. Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals

Author:
Nathaniel Myers
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

9294. The Politics of 2 Percent: NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe

Author:
Jan Techau
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pledged in 2014 to increase their defense spending to 2 percent of their gross domestic products by 2024. It is unrealistic to assume that this goal will ever be reached by all 28 allies, and yet the 2 percent metric persists—and it has assumed a significance beyond its face value. It is about addressing Europe’s growing security vacuum and defining who will be in charge of European security.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Economics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe

9295. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System

Author:
Kawa Hassan
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

9296. Unprecedented Pressures, Uncharted Course for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

Author:
Nathan Brown and Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest opposition movement and one of its oldest, is squeezed between an unprecedented crackdown from the security state and a young generation pushing for more assertive action against the regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. As a movement that has long espoused evolutionary change morphs into one that advocates revolutionary change—and struggles with whether that means adopting a strategy of violence against the state—the implications for Egypt and the entire region are massive.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt

9297. Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Yangon/Brussels: After more than six decades of internal armed conflict, the next four weeks could be decisive for Myanmar’s peace process. The process, which was launched in August 2011, enjoyed significant initial success, as bilateral ceasefires were agreed with more than a dozen ethnic armed groups. But signing a nationwide ceasefire and proceeding to the political dialogue phase has been much more difficult. Four years on, with campaigning for the November elections already underway, a deal remains elusive. It is unclear whether a breakthrough can be achieved before the elections. Outside pressure will not be productive, but the progress to date needs to be locked in, and public international commitments to support the integrity of the process and stand with the groups that sign can now be of critical importance.

9298. Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Yangon/Brussels: After more than six decades of internal armed conflict, the next four weeks could be decisive for Myanmar’s peace process. The process, which was launched in August 2011, enjoyed significant initial success, as bilateral ceasefires were agreed with more than a dozen ethnic armed groups. But signing a nationwide ceasefire and proceeding to the political dialogue phase has been much more difficult. Four years on, with campaigning for the November elections already underway, a deal remains elusive. It is unclear whether a breakthrough can be achieved before the elections. Outside pressure will not be productive, but the progress to date needs to be locked in, and public international commitments to support the integrity of the process and stand with the groups that sign can now be of critical importance.

9299. Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China

Author:
Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power. This Council Special Report recommends placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Hegemony

9300. Sector-Specific Decision Failures in Business and Government, and Potential Solutions

Author:
Nicolas Boulgaris
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Both the public and the corporate sector will inevitably take poor decisions from time to time. Mostly, this will be explained by already well-researched cognitive predispositions. Anchoring, overconfidence and confirmation biases come to mind among many others. However, having worked for seventeen years in the private sector with an academic background in international relations, I came to realise that there are also explanations for decision-making missteps that originate directly from the specific particularities of government and business.1 As an “Executive in Residence” at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, I recently had the opportunity to exchange my personal experience in the asset management industry with the practice of senior politicians, diplomats and military officials. This short paper is a summary of my reflections on some sector- specific roots of decision-making failures of the private and public areas and an attempt to draw thought-provoking conclusions on what both entities can learn, often from each other.
Topic:
Privatization and Governance