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9171. The Islamic State’s Strategy: Lasting and Expanding

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The self-proclaimed Islamic State is a hybrid jihadist group with a declared goal of establishing a “lasting and expanding” caliphate. Its strategy for survival and growth blends military, political, social, and economic components. Yet the U.S.-led international intervention against it has largely been limited to air strikes. The gaps in the international coalition’s approach as well as deep sectarian divisions in Iraq and the shifting strategies of the Syrian regime and its allies are allowing the Islamic State to continue to exist and expand.
Topic:
Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

9172. Understanding the Indian Voter

Author:
Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) historic victory in India’s 2014 general election prompted declarations of a watershed in the behavior of the Indian voter. Upon closer inspection, the reality is more nuanced. On some parameters, such as voting based on economic and ethnic considerations, there were indeed discernible changes. However, the empirical evidence suggests these shifts were well under way before 2014. In other areas—namely, support for regional parties, dynastic politicians, and candidates associated with criminal activity—contemporary voters demonstrated much greater continuity with the past.
Topic:
Democratization, Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9173. Crumbling States: Security Sector Reform in Libya and Yemen

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Already-weak states in Libya and Yemen crumbled as struggles for control over their security sectors became central to transitional politics after the popular uprisings of 2011. Instead of being reformed and upgraded to enhance the fragile legitimacy of interim governments, the security sectors collapsed by 2014. Libya and Yemen are now caught in a vicious circle: rebuilding effective central states and cohesive national identities requires a new consensus on the purpose and governance of security sectors, but reaching this agreement depends on resolving the deep political divisions and social fractures that led to civil war in both countries.
Topic:
Security, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

9174. An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control?

Author:
Alexei Arbatov
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Beginning with the signing of the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963, an international arms control regime has limited existing nuclear arsenals and prevented further proliferation of nuclear weapons. But that entire system could soon unravel. Nearly all negotiations on nuclear arms reduction and nonproliferation have come to a stop, while existing treaty structures are eroding due to political and military-technological developments and may collapse in the near future. These strategic and technical problems can be resolved if politicians are willing to work them out, and if experts approach them creatively.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

9175. Managing China’s Petcoke Problem

Author:
Wang Tao
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Petroleum coke (petcoke), a by-product of petroleum refining that is high in contaminants, has quietly emerged in China as an inexpensive, but very dirty, alternative to coal. A significant share of the petcoke used in China is imported from the United States, where it is generally considered waste. The Chinese government is committed to reducing coal consumption for environmental reasons, but petcoke is not yet well-known to the country’s policymakers. Still, its use and resulting emissions must be addressed if efforts to reduce air pollution and climate change are to be effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China and East Asia

9176. Increasing Anti-Malaria Bednets Uptake Using Information and Distribution Strategies: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Senegal

Author:
Jacopo Bonan, Philippe LeMay-Boucher, Douglas Scott, and Michel Tenikue
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of information about malaria and of bednet distribution strategies on the demand for anti-malaria bednets, using a randomized experiment in the city of Thiès in Senegal. We offer two orthogonal treatments to a random sample of households. The first is a sale treatment and consists of 1) an offer to purchase on the spot a bednet at a subsidized price or 2) an offer to purchase a bednet at the same subsidized price with a voucher valid for seven days. The second is an information treatment that consists of a ten-minute information session on malaria-related issues. We find that information has no significant effect on the demand for bednets and that receiving a voucher increases purchasing by 20%. Our results suggest that selling bednets at a subsidized price and allowing for some flexibility with a short period of seven days increases purchase compared to the on-the-spot sale approach.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

9177. Geographies of Violence: A Spatial Analysis of Five Types of Homicide in Brazil’s Municipalities

Author:
Matthew C. Ingram and Marcelo Marchesini da Costa
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Objectives: Examine the spatial distribution of five types of homicide across Brazil’s 5,562 municipalities and test the effects of family disruption, marginalization, poverty-reduction programs, environmental degradation, and the geographic diffusion of violence. Methods: Cluster analysis and spatial error, spatial lag, and geographically-weighted regressions. Results: Maps visualize clusters of high and low rates of different types of homicide. Core results from spatial regressions show that some predictors have uniform or stationary effects across all units, while other predictors have uneven, non-stationary effects. Among stationary effects, family disruption has a harmful effect across all types of homicide except femicide, and environmental degradation has a harmful effect, increasing the rates of femicide, gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Among non-stationary effects, marginalization has a harmful effect across all measures of homicide but poses the greatest danger to nonwhite populations in the northern part of Brazil; the poverty-reduction program Bolsa Família has a protective, negative effect for most types of homicides, especially for gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Lastly, homicide in nearby communities increases the likelihood of homicide in one’s home community, and this holds across all types of homicide. The diffusion effect also varies across geographic areas; the danger posed by nearby violence is strongest in the Amazon region and in a large section of the eastern coast. Conclusions: Findings help identify the content of violence-reduction policies, how to prioritize different components of these policies, and how to target these policies by type of homicide and geographic area for maximum effect.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Environment, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9178. Power, Markets, and Top Income Shares

Author:
Evelyne Huber, Huo Jingjing, and John D. Stephens
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The rise of the super-rich has attracted much political and academic attention in recent years. However, to date there have been few attempts to explain the cross-national variation in the recent rise of very top incomes. Drawing on the World Top Incomes Database, we study the income share of the top 1% in almost all current postindustrial democracies from 1975 to 2012. We find that extreme income concentration at the very top is a predominantly political phenomenon, not the outcome of economic changes. Top income shares are largely unrelated to economic growth, increased knowledge-intensive production, export competitiveness, market size, financialization, and wealth accumulation. Instead, they are driven by various political and policy changes that reflect a decline in the relative power and resources of labor, such as union density and centralization, secular-right governments, and cuts in top marginal income tax rates as well as in public spending on education.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Political Economy, and Social Stratification

9179. The Electoral Basis of Ideological Polarization in Latin America

Author:
Juan Andrés Moraes
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Polarization has been always identified as a problem for Latin American democracies. Yet its determinants remain largely undertheorized and without systematic evidence. This paper tackles this shortcoming with a new explanation where polarization is conceptualized as a mobilizational tool used by parties to deliver unequivocal signals to voters about their location in the policy space. The explanation holds that Parties’ strategies depend on the electoral context in which they compete, making volatility a crucial indicator of their behavior. Low-volatility contexts inhibit parties from seeking polarization due to potential electoral punishments by voters and the internal costs of programmatic change within the party organization. High volatility, however, increases the risk of electoral survival, decreasing the costs of seeking polarization. Here, volatility makes polarization more likely. Using time-series cross-sectional regression analysis for eighteen Latin American countries for 1995–2010, this paper provides robust statistical results to support the causal link between electoral volatility and polarization.
Topic:
Democratization, Demographics, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America

9180. Democratization and Other Civil War Legacies in Central America

Author:
Fabrice Lehoucq
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of civil war on regime change. It focuses on Central America, a region where several countries underwent transitions to democracy in the wake of civil war during the second half of the twentieth century. It argues that armed conflict, not increasing levels of economic development, led to political change. Violence liquidated stubbornly resilient autocracies in El Salvador and Nicaragua, catalyzed the democratization of Costa Rican politics, and was the backdrop to regime liberalization in Guatemala. Postwar negotiations, at a time when Cold War bipolarity was ending, led to the establishment of more open, civilian regimes on the isthmus. This paper also notes that the transition from autocracy was enormously costly in both lives and economic well-being, which helps to explain why political change has given birth to low-quality democracies or mixed regimes on the isthmus, ones that also have witnessed the explosion of criminal and drug-related violence.
Topic:
Civil War, Crime, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America