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8561. How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Long considered unlikely, the prospect of South Korea and Japan getting nuclear weapons and China and North Korea significantly ramping up their arsenals has become the next big worry. This June, CIA Director John Brennan testified that nuclear proliferation was “a blinking red light” and spotlighted North Korea’s nuclear misbehavior as a key concern.1 His testimony came only weeks after a The New York Times interview of Donald Trump in which the Republican presidential hopeful emphasized the inevitabil- ity and possible benefits of Japan and South Korea going nuclear.2 Since then, the question of whether or not it is in Washington’s interest to push nonproliferation in East Asia has been a hot topic in and outside the Beltway.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
East Asia

8562. SERIOUS RULES FOR NUCLEAR POWER WITHOUT PROLIFERATION*

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski and Victor Gilinsky
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
In this chapter, we try to step back from the day-to- day struggles in Washington, DC, over nuclear non- proliferation policy to ask what measures we would need to have in place to be reasonably confident that expanding nuclear power globally will not increase the number of nuclear weapons-armed states. We recognize that, since the start of the Atoms for Peace Program in the mid-1950s, the United States has sup- ported worldwide use of nuclear power. It also has op- posed the spread of nuclear weapons and supported measures to control the nuclear weapons proliferation risks inherent in spreading nuclear technology for civilian purposes. The principal administrative ele- ments of this nonproliferation effort are the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the associated in- spection activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as various national and inter- national export controls.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8563. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures

Author:
Shane Smith
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
On February 12, 2013, North Korea’s state media announced that it had conducted a third nuclear test “of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power…demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified.”[1] Since then, there has been renewed debate and speculation over the nature and direction of North Korea’s nuclear program. Can it develop weapons using both plutonium and uranium? How far away is it from having a deliverable warhead and how capable are its delivery systems? How many and what kind of weapons is it looking to build? These are not easy questions to answer. North Korea remains one of the most notoriously secret nations, and details about its nuclear program are undoubtedly some of its most valued secrets. Yet, the answers to these questions have far reaching implications for U.S. and regional security.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
North Korea

8564. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES New kid on the block The European Commission and European defence

Author:
Dick Zandee
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The newly launched European Defence Action Plan (EDAP) opens the door to EU spending on defence. This Policy Brief analyses why the EDAP has been launched, what it is and how it will work in practice. It argues that the plan is a step change in the European Commission’s growing involvement in defence and a potential game changer in solving the problem of European military shortfalls. European capitals should therefore embrace the new kid on the block and make full use of the potential offered by the EDAP.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Political Economy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

8565. Medium-sized states in inter- national cyber security policies

Author:
Sico Van Der meer
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Some medium-sized states play varying, yet important roles in international cyber-security policies. In this policy brief author Sico van der Meer offers a concise overview of five medium-sized states with such a prominent position: Australia, Estonia, Israel, the Netherlands and South Korea. How did these states attain these positions, and what are the benefits and challenges? The analysis shows that these positions are not easy to acquire or to maintain. Whilst the will to continuously invest and to develop an integrated (whole-of-government) approach seems to be an obvious key requirement for success, cyber security as a policy area is very broad. Remaining in a lead position may require looking for ‘a niche within the niche’.
Topic:
Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8566. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES EU Strategy and European Defence What Level of Ambition?

Author:
Luis Simon
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The global proliferation of precision-strike systems and the concomitant emergence of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities challenges the foundations of Western global military-technological supremacy. What does this mean for current EU debates on military ambition? This policy brief argues that the assumption of the freedom of (military) access and movement, which has guided European strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War, is no longer valid. Europeans should get to grips with the new military-strategic paradigm and translate this into an updated ambition level and related capabilities.
Topic:
International Affairs, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

8567. Promoting green growth in Colombia: A post-conflict opportunity?

Author:
Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief addresses the opportunities for and impediments to green growth and energy security in Colombia. As a result of renewed international activity and high vulnerability to the effects of climate change, Colombia has embraced ambitious green growth objectives and climate change mitigation goals. Rapid economic growth and rising peak demand centres for energy may well go hand in hand with clean energy uptake. Most Colombian citizens are highly aware of the need for a low-carbon growth trajectory and the country has already invested substantially in renewable energy development. However, dominance of private sector interests within the state, resulting from a powerful transnational alliance of extractive industries, may hamper long-term green growth efforts to succeed. Greening the private sector in a post-conflict Colombia may prove to be one of the crucial steps in consolidating Colombia’s low-carbon growth trajectory.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Colombia

8568. Kenya: A green growth utopia?

Author:
Ries Kamphof
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief addresses the opportunities for and impediments to green growth and energy security in Kenya. It is part of a two-year research project on energy security and green growth in middle income countries by means of political economy analysis. Other project outputs can be found here. Kenya has taken a leading role in the region on several fronts, including its ambitions to address climate change and boost green growth while improving the country’s energy security. Efforts have been underway to realise this goal. Most vividly illustrated by the execution of large-scale geothermal, hydro and wind power projects. Yet, not all is straightforward. Constitutional reform has led to a new institutional framework which presents both opportunities and obstacles to green growth implementation. Moreover, the presence of oil and coal reserves and the ambition to exploit these threaten efforts to build a low-carbon economy. Kenya is currently at crossroads, and decisions taken today may influence its green growth potential for the decades to come.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Kenya

8569. Energy security and green growth in Indonesia

Author:
Xander van Tilburg, Gustya Indriani, and Santiago Villaveces-Izquierdo
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Still a long way to go - Energy security and green growth in Indonesia This policy brief addresses the opportunities and impediments of green growth and energy security in Indonesia. Over the past 20 years, Indonesia has witnessed substantial economic growth along with a process of democratisation and decentralisation. This has resulted in a rapidly rising energy demand, which is expected to triple by 2030. Responses so far have mostly focussed on tapping into the nation’s large fossil fuel reserves while also increasing energy imports. There are opportunities for Indonesia to couple energy security with green growth objectives. For instance by exploiting its enormous geothermal energy potential and by coupling financial and efficiency gains to green growth implementation. However, as this policy brief outlines, major challenges need to be overcome if Indonesia is to embark on a green growth trajectory. This policy brief is part of a two-year research project on energy security and green growth in middle income countries by means of political economy analysis. Other project outputs can be found here.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Indonesia

8570. European defence core groups

Author:
Margriet Drent, Anne Bakker, and Dick Zandee
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The why, what & how of permanent structured cooperation The deteriorating security situation around Europe and the burgeoning messages from Washington that Europe has to take more responsibility for its own security call for a step change in European defence cooperation. So far, progress has been too slow. This policy brief argues that permanent structured cooperation (Pesco) offers the option to take a more ambitious and more productive route by member states willing to move forward more quickly, set more demanding objectives and commit themselves more strongly. This would end the well-known ‘voluntary basis’ which has often been used as an excuse for doing little or nothing at all.
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, International Security, International Affairs, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
America and European Union