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8412. Closed Borders: The impact of border closures on people on the move, with a focus on women and children in Serbia and Macedonia
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In 2015 there was a huge increase in the number of migrants, including refugees, arriving in Greece and travelling along the Balkan route on their way to destination countries further north. According to UNHCR, more than one million refugees and migrants crossed the Mediterranean in 2015. This report looks at the protection concerns of people on the move, especially women and children, in Macedonia and Serbia following the closure of the Balkan route. It is based on research and information gathered by Oxfam and its partners: the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights and Atina in Serbia, and the Macedonian Young Lawyer Association and Open Gate/ La Strada in Macedonia. The report includes recommendations on how to protect and promote their safety, dignity and human rights.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Serbia, and Macedonia
8413. Where There's a Will, There's a Way: Safe havens needed for refugees from Syria
- Author:
- Evelien Van Roemburg, Alexandra Saieh, and Daniel Gorevan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Oxfam's research shows that less than three percent of the Syrian refugee population have actually arrived in rich countries through resettlement programmes. By analysing resettlement policies and practices in eight key countries, looking at capacity (i.e. investment in staff and facilities), security procedures, resettlement criteria and the general political climate towards refugees, this paper shows why resettling at least 10 percent of the refugee population from Syria is both necessary and possible.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Resettlement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
8414. Researching the Killer Fact That Highlighted Global Economic Inequality
- Author:
- Leila Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This case study of research in practice describes how in 2014 Oxfam staff researched and developed a powerful killer fact ' that the 85 richest people owned as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion people ' and how this triggered international media coverage, political commentary, and record-level website hits.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Media, Inequality, and Economic Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8415. Understanding teenage fertility, cohabitation, and marriage: the case of Peru
- Author:
- Marta Favara, Pablo Lavado, and Alan Sanchez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
- Abstract:
- In this study, the authors used data from the Young Lives study, which investigates teenage childbearing, marriage, and cohabitation by tracking a cohort of individuals from the ages of 8 to 19 years. While the present analysis does not intend to establish causality, the longitudinal nature of the data allows the researchers to identify the combination of early circumstances and life changes that induce a higher likelihood of these events. The analysis addresses bias due both to reverse causality and to community characteristics that are usually unobserved and fixed over time, a strategy that is quite unique in studies of developing countries. About 1 out of 5 females (and 1 out of 20 males) in our sample had at least one child by the age of 19, and 80 percent of them were married or cohabiting. Early marriage/cohabitation is indeed intrinsically related to early pregnancy and largely predicted by the same factors. For females specifically, girls from poor households with an absent parent for a prolonged period have a higher risk of early childbearing. Similarly, girls whose self-efficacy and educational aspirations decrease over time are more at risk of becoming a mother during adolescence. Conversely, school attendance and better school performance predict a lower risk of early pregnancy; the analysis suggests that this is largely because it postpones the first sexual relationship.
- Topic:
- Health, Children, Sexuality, Public Health, Young Adults, and Adolescence
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Peru
8416. Poland at the Crossroads Between Authoritarianism and Democracy
- Author:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Symbolic ensembles that are often displayed in the public sphere by right-wing populists are “thick” in this sense. They include many inter-locked symbols that – in combination – allow for a narrower range of possible interpretations and thus attract a smaller, in this case right wing leaning group of people. They constitute the symbolic base of Polish thick populism, an exclusionary and polarizing political-cultural formation, that at the moment is supported by well over one third of the Polish population, controls the government, and slowly dismantles Polish liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Domestic politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland
8417. Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
- Author:
- Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Proponents of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after ten years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the United States to 13 percent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of the TPP’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model. Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. We find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full-employment models, and are negative for Japan and the United States. More important, we find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Inequality, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and Asia-Pacific
8418. Core Support for the New Economy
- Author:
- Neva Goodwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes an income guarantee that would be defined as compensation for household activities such as childcare, food preparation, care of elderly or ill persons in the home, maintenance of the home and of household vehicles and appliances, and household-based transportation. I will call it Core Support, or CS. The Core Support proposal is put forth as a way to achieve a number of important goals, including reduction of poverty and inequality, increased fairness and better old-age security, and improved possibilities for good child care and education. It could replace much of the burdensome and expensive apparatus of welfare and some other government programs. Rather than providing a handout, it would expressly reward and enable some of the unpaid work on which every society depends, validating these activities as legitimate labor. As described in this proposal, it could have a significant impact in healthy redefinition of gender norms. In addition, the proposed program would reduce the requirement for all members of society to take paid work, thus rebalancing power between employers and employees. By reducing the pressure to create jobs, regardless of their quality or their impact, it would make it easier to cease production of socially or environmentally harmful goods and services. However, it would create a not inconsiderable amount of new work in managing the program. Depending on whether there is too much, or too little, demand for labor in the macroeconomy, this could be desirable, or not. This idea builds on literature on Basic Income Guarantees (BIG), as well as on some work in feminist economics. The latter tends to be skeptical of BIG proposals. It is hoped that the CS proposal, by addressing intra-household allocations – a topic normally absent from BIG proposals – can respond to this skepticism by showing how a basic income system can be designed so as to promote deep cultural changes in gender norms and widen respect for those who do the essential core work of a society. If it is assumed that the CS funds depend on taxable income, then it would be necessary for the economy in which it is implemented to have a preexisting flow of money from the sale of privately produced goods and services; thus it would appear that this approach would not be feasible in poor countries. Hence, given a focus on the U.S. context, some attention will be paid to the question of how “wealthy” this country will be in coming decades. It is possible to imagine macroeconomic conditions in which people are “poor” because they lack money to buy needed goods and services that are in fact being produced in the economy. In this case the central bank could create money to be distributed in amounts that would enable local trade, benefiting both producers and households, and possibly leading to higher levels of output.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Poverty, Women, Inequality, and Economic Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8419. CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses
- Author:
- Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Proponents of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited official projections suggest modest GDP gains after about a decade, varying from between 0.003% to 0.08% in the European Union and between 0.03% to 0.76% in Canada. However, all these quantitative projections stem from the same trade model, which assumes full employment and neutral (if not constant) income distribution in all countries, excluding from the outset any of the major risks of deeper liberalization. This lack of intellectual diversity and of realism shrouding the debate around CETA’s alleged economic benefits calls for an alternative assessment grounded in more realistic modeling premises. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of CETA’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM). Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. In contrast to positive outcomes projected with full-employment models, we find CETA will lead to intra-EU trade diversion. More importantly, in the current context of tepid economic growth, competitive pressures induced by CETA will cause unemployment, inequality and welfare losses. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on CETA.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, European Union, GDP, and Diversity
- Political Geography:
- Europe
8420. ‘Keep Calm and Carry on’? Resilience and UK Security Policies
- Author:
- Sarah Ponesch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- In the UK context of National Security Strategies and Critical National Infrastructure Protection, resilience is understood as a result of, or an answer to, an ever changing, complex and interconnected world in which even a tiny event can have a huge impact. Resilience incorporates the need to adapt to an almost infinite variety of hazards and risks and could therefore be called an all-hazards approach in the wider realm of security. However, an analysis of UK security policy documents and qualitative in-depth interviews with a variety of stakeholders shows it is more than that. Resilience is framed as a means to address change in general. It includes not only the negative aspects of globalisation but also its opportunities. Moreover, resilience is understood as a whole-of-government, if not whole-of-nation attempt to ‘connect the dots’ and overcome the ‘silo thinking’ in order to see the ‘bigger picture’. Therefore, resilience, in the UK, is often understood as a form of culture rather than a tool, instrument, concept or approach. In order for it to ‘function’, resilience has to overcome and reach beyond simple top-down or bottom-up approaches. It has to be lived.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe