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8061. The Army War College Review Vol. 2 No. 1

Author:
Dr. Larry D. Miller
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Army War College Review, a refereed publication of student work, is produced under the purview of the Strategic Studies Institute and the United States Army War College. An electronic quarterly, The AWC Review connects student intellectual work with professionals invested in U.S. national security, Landpower, strategic leadership, global security studies, and the advancement of the profession of arms

8062. Military Engagement and Forward Presence: Down but Not Out as Tools to Shape and Win

Author:
Dr. John R. Deni
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Military engagement and forward-based U.S. military forces offer decisionmakers effective and efficient mechanisms for maintaining American influence, deterring aggression, assuring allies, building tomorrow’s coalitions, managing the challenge of disorder in the security environment, mitigating the risk of a major interstate war, and facilitating U.S. and coalition operations should deterrence fail. Unfortunately, significant cuts to overseas permanent presence and continuing pockets of institutional bias against engagement as a force multiplier and readiness enhancer have combined to limit the leverage possible through these two policy tools. Instead, reliance on precision strike stand-off capabilities and a strategy of surging American military might from CONUS after a crisis has already started have become particularly attractive approaches for managing insecurity in a more resource-constrained environment. This approach is short-sighted politically and strategically. Relying on stand-off capabilities and so-called “surge readiness” – instead of placing greater emphasis on forward presence and, when employed selectively, military engagement – will ultimately result in reduced American influence with friends and adversaries alike, encourage adversaries to act hastily and aggressively, and have the effect of reducing, not expanding, options available to any President.

8063. Yemen’s Question: From the Struggle for Freedom to the Struggle for Survival

Author:
Ahmed A. Al Zandani
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Abstract:
When Yemenis demonstrated almost 5 years ago, shouting “The People Want the Fall of the Regime,” they did not know how complex the situation is, and how regional and international powers will determine their future. As one of the objectives of the revolution, Yemenis deemed that by removing President Salih from power, the revolution would guarantee their freedom. But the politics of the Arab World and the Middle East proved otherwise. Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire almost a century ago, the Arab World has been subjected to the hegemony of the great powers. Thus, the real obstacle for democratic transition within the Middle Eastern countries comes from outside rather than domestic threats. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that revolutionary leader’s reliance on foreign powers to change the political system and to achieve the revolutionary objectives was counterproductive in which constituted a huge obstacle in achieving those objectives, paving the way to civil war in Yemen, turning the struggle for freedom to struggle for survival.

8064. Foreign Policy as Domestic Power Struggle: The Northern Iraq as a Battlefield Between the AKP and the TAF in 2007-8

Author:
Ali Balci
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Abstract:
The issue of rapprochement with Kurdish parties in the Northern Iraq turned a discursive battlefield between Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and the ruling Justice Development Party (AKP) after the 2005 General Elections in Iraq from which Kurdish groups emerged as a strong political actor in Iraqi politics. When the AKP government declared its policy of rapprochement with the Kurdish regional government at the beginning of 2007, the then Chief of General Staff Yaşar Büyükanıt publicly criticized and rejected this new policy. Büyükanıt declined to talk with Kurdish leaders on the grounds that they were supporting for the PKK. This exchange of statements was the part of a political snowball rolling to which other areas of the struggle were included. The rift between the AKP government and the TAF over how to deal with Iraqi Kurds started just as Turkey gears up for key presidential elections. This paper will attempt to analyze the battle over the Northern Iraq between the TAF and the AKP in order to answer the following questions: How the TAF and the AKP came face to face on the issue of the Northern Iraq? Under what conditions the Northern Iraq turned a discursive battlefield between the TAF and the AKP? What was the function of the Northern Iraq in the domestic power struggle between the TAF and the AKP?

8065. Russia’s View of Ukraine after the Crisis

Author:
Giovanna De Maio
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper reflects on the crisis over Ukraine from the Russian point of view bearing in mind the deterioration of the relationship between Moscow and Kiev and the international retaliation against Russia’s aggression. What does Ukraine represent for Russia? Did the events in Maidan affect how Russia perceives Ukraine? These questions are addressed by analysing the discourse on Ukraine by the main stakeholders of Russian society: the political and economic elites, civil society, the mass media and academia, the general public and the Orthodox Church.
Topic:
International Relations and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

8066. Why Youth Empowerment Can Sustain Tunisia’s Democratic Consolidation

Author:
Pietro Marzo
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper will focus on why the empowerment of young Tunisians is crucial to sustain the fragile democratic consolidation process in Tunisia. It will demonstrate how young Tunisians were the trigger of the Jasmine revolution and how their demands were among the main factors that guided the process of transition to democracy. Through the analysis of the involvement of young Tunisians in the transition to democracy, this paper argues that their current situation may affect the process of democratic consolidation, by strengthening or jeopardizing it. The role of the European Union is also investigated, by recommending possible policies that could play a role in assisting youth empowerment in Tunisia. The paper also puts forward a package of recommendations to the Tunisian national government

8067. Somalia: A Long Road Ahead

Author:
Rossella Marangio
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The security situation and the statebuilding process in Somalia have seen significant improvements in recent years. However, the path towards stabilisation and peace is still troubled in light of the delays in implementing many of the measures foreseen in the Somali Compact and the Federal Government’s Six Pillar programme. Al-Shabaab still constitutes a major threat in Somalia and the region, the electoral process revealed key divisions between the federal institutions and the emerging regional states, and the federalisation process has required external mediation to form most ad interim administrations. Social reconciliation has been sidelined in favour of administration-building, thus preventing the strengthening of ties both within society and between the federal and regional levels.

8068. Transfers and Transparency

Author:
Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This Update provides an overview of the international trade in small arms and light weapons in 2013. The first section of the Update reports on the total values and main categories of small arms1 transferred by top and major exporters and importers. This section also assesses changes in trade patterns from 2012 to 2013. The second section presents the 2016 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer, whose methodology and sourcing have been revised. As explained below, the Barometer now includes a new source—the Regional Report on Arms Exports, prepared by of the South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms (SEESAC).
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8069. Broken Promises: The Arms Embargo on Darfur Since 2012

Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The UN arms embargo on Darfur— imposed in 2004, expanded in 2005, and elaborated in 2010 with additional due-diligence requirements—has demonstrably failed to prevent the delivery of materiel to Darfur’s armed actors. A transnational supply chain based in locations as diverse as the remote Central African trading town of Am Dafok and the commercial centres of Dubai continues to furnish weapons, ammunition, and other military equipment to all sides in a 14-year-old conflict (see Map 1).
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Sudan, Darfur, and Central Africa

8070. Popular Struggles and Elite Co-Optation: The Nuer White Army in South Sudan's Civil War

Author:
John Young
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan is a multi-year project administered by the Small Arms Survey. It was developed in cooperation with the Canadian government, the United Nations Mission in Sudan, the United Nations Development Programme, and a wide array of international and Sudanese partners. Through the active generation and dissemination of timely, empirical research, the project supports violence reduction initiatives, including disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programmes, incentive schemes for civilian arms collection, as well as security sector reform and arms control interventions across Sudan and South Sudan. The HSBA also offers policy-relevant advice on redressing insecurity.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Reform, and UNDP
Political Geography:
Sudan and South Sudan