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771. Inclusive American Economic History: Containing Slaves, Freedmen, Jim Crow Laws, and the Great Migration

Author:
Trevon Logan and Peter Temin
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper records the path by which African Americans were transformed from enslaved persons in the American economy to partial participants in the progress of the economy. The path was not monotonic, and we organize our tale by periods in which inclusiveness rose and fell. The history we recount demonstrates the staying power of the myth of black inferiority held by a changing white majority as the economy expanded dramatically. Slavery was outlawed after the Civil War, and blacks began to participate in American politics en masse for the first time during Reconstruction. This process met with white resistance, and black inclusion in the growing economy fell as the Gilded Age followed and white political will for black political participation faded. The Second World War also was followed by prosperity in which blacks were included more fully into the white economy, but still not completely. The Civil Rights Movement proved no more durable than Reconstruction, and blacks lost ground as the 20th century ended in the growth of a New Gilded Age. Resources that could be used to improve the welfare of whites and blacks continue to be spent on the continued repressions of blacks.
Topic:
Economics, Race, History, Capitalism, and Slavery
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

772. Strengthened Civil Society and Effective Cooperation in Democratic Urban Governance

Author:
Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report has been produced in the framework of the Empowering Civil Society for a More Democratic Local Governance Project funded by the scope of Republic of Turkey and European Union supported Partnerships and Networks Grant Program. TESEV is the lead, Şişli Municipality and Association of Union of Citizen Assemblies are the co-applicants, and the Checks and Balances Network is the associate of the project. The transition from the classical management approach to the governance approach, in which private sector and non-governmental organisations take on roles in determining public policies, has been the dominant discourse of politics for more than a quarter century. Instead of a hierarchical and monolithic bureaucratic process, this approach envisions a management triangle that engages other stakeholders. However, these governance principles have not been fully put into practice in Turkey and those that have been implemented have not yielded the expected results. The present study aims to test these statements at the level of local governments and politics. Its purpose is also to open up a discussion based on the findings of interviews and roundtables conducted in ten cities in Turkey and of a comprehensive survey administered to a nationally representative sample of civil society organisations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organization, Governance, Democracy, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

773. Perceptions and Reflections of the Security Crisis in the Black Sea Region

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The first reflection about the geopolitical environment that Bulgaria faced after the tectonic systemic shifts in the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s of the 20th century thirty years later is that the efforts of the country to influence the transformation of the Balkans into a regional security community were successful. The second reflection is that Bulgaria was not able to influence effectively a similar development in the Black Sea area. Both the Balkans and the Caspian Sea-Caucasus- Black Sea area were conflictual knots of relations inherited from the Cold War divide. While the traditional European great powers that polarized the Balkan system of international relations pushing the small countries one against the other and the United States had the strategic interest of pacifying the South Eastern region of Europe, the dominating great power in the Black Sea area – Russia, aimed at preserving the opportunities of coming back to the territories that the Soviet Union lost after its collapse by preserving various degrees of conflictness in the neighbouring countries. Depending on the general condition of the Russian economy and state as well as its domestic political status different opportunities were either designed or just used to preserve the profile of Russia of the empire that sooner or later will be back. What are, in this regard, the perceptions in Bulgaria of the annexation of Crimea?
Topic:
Security, International Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Empire
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Soviet Union, Bulgaria, and Caspian Sea

774. The cross-border impacts of China’s official rate shocks on stock returns of Chinese concepts shares listed on U.S. market

Author:
Dong Weijia
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper examines a new cross-border effect of an emerging country’s interest rate changes on the stock returns of its domestic firms listed overseas. First, we discover that the increase in China’s official interest rate greatly affects the NYSE-listed Chinese stocks, thereby suggesting that similar to Chinese domestic investors, the institutional investors in a mature market sometimes exhibit irrational sentiment driven by an emerging economy’s unexpected monetary policy shocks. Second, we highlight some novel asymmetric impacts of China’s official rate changes on Chinese concepts stock prices and reveal that these effects differ from the conventional nonlinear effects of monetary policies. For instance, a bull and bear regime has no statistically significant asymmetric effect on NYSE, whereas interest rate rise has different cross-border impact on Nasdaq and NYSE markets. These interesting findings are mainly driven by the smart investors in the U.S. stock market who are knowledgeable about the differences between NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed stocks and carefully analyze the different impacts of China’s official interest rate changes on the fundamentals of different types of Chinese concepts stocks.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

775. Comovement of Home Prices: A Conditional Copula Approach

Author:
Lei Hou, Wei Long, and Qi Li
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Even though housing markets in different areas are relatively localized, regional home prices have become closely correlated and tend to be simultaneously affected by many national economic factors. In this paper, through the dynamic copula model, we confirm that regional home price dependence is time-varying and the conventional time-invariant copulas underestimate the degree of dependence during economic expansions and recessions. In essence, the U.S. residential real estate market has become more integrated since the mid-1980s. Using the conditional copula model, we further identify how the dependence among regional housing markets evolves along with some fundamental economic factors such as unemployment rate and interest rate. These findings can help investors and home buyers to better identify and evaluate the systematic risk in the nationwide housing market.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, and Housing
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

776. Evaluating the impact of fossil fuel vehicles exit on the oil demand in China

Author:
Ziru Feng, Tian Cai, Kangli Xiang, Chenxi Xiang, and Lei Hou
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China's vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles under the scenarios of slow, medium, and rapid substitution. The main contribution of this paper is making a more detailed estimation on the main parameters such as the saturation level and growth rate of the vehicle ownership by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast the future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: ①The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. ②Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China's auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces in fuel demand due to the economic and demographic factors, with the expected fuel demand of 76.76, 64.91 and 63.95Mt respectively. ③Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 653, 615 and 578 Mt respectively under the scenarios of slow, medium and fast substitution. Even under the scenario of slow substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will be 94 Mt, accounting for 26.3% of China's net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this study provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

777. WTO accession, trade expansion, and air pollution: Evidence from China’s county-level panel data

Author:
Shuai Chen, Faqin Lin, Xi Yao, and Peng Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This study provides evidence that trade expansion has contributed to the degradation of air pollution in China. On the basis of different responses of counties’ trade to China’s World Trade Organization accession at the end of 2001, we exploit air pollution data from NASA to construct a difference-in-differences predicted trade as an instrument for our identification. We document statistically significant and robust evidence on trade expansion, which accounts for approximately 60% and 20% for the increase of PM2.5 and SO2, respectively, in China. Findings on trade pollution relation are robust to various tests. Deterioration in the environment is mainly driven by scale and trade in polluting sectors.
Topic:
Trade, Pollution, and WTO
Political Geography:
China and Asia

778. The Impact of COVID-19 on World Economy and China’s Role

Author:
Xu Xiujun
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Recent years have seen more countries to experience “three lows and three highs” problems. The pandemic triggered the exposure of these accumulated risks, leading to a slump in world economic growth. Given the developing trend of world economy amid the ongoing pandemic, the world may face a range of challenges for a long time to go, e.g. insufficient momentum for economic growth, increased resistance for market opening and rising debt risks. As the world economy suffers a major hit, China has been active in providing the international community with the assistance needed to combat the COVID-19 and recover the economy, while China’s economy itself has shown strong resilience and stability. In the long run, the pandemic will not change the sound momentum of China’s economic development; rather, it will provide an opportunity for China to play a significant role in the world economy.
Topic:
Economy, Global Political Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

779. Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic and Improve Global Health Governance

Author:
Lin Ren, Aizong Xiong, Guoding Wu, Chen Shen, Xu Tian, and Bo Peng
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The fast spreading of the COVID-19 across the globe points to the urgency of strengthening global health governance. As the core global health governance institution, the WHO has taken a series of actions after the eruption of the epidemic and played an important role in providing guidance and coordinating global forces to combat the epidemic. The epidemic, however, has also exposed some defects of the global health governance mechanism, especially the WHO, and posed challenge to it. The international community needs to strengthen its support for the WHO to improve its role in the global health governance.
Topic:
Health, Governance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

780. The Effects of COVID-19 For Refugees and Asylum Seekers in the European Union

Author:
Romy De Niet
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The global COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19) has disrupted the status quo in member states of the European Union (EU). With a halt on public events, closed schools, and people working from home, the lives of many have changed in a short amount of time. Refugees and asylum seekers are among the world’s most vulnerable populations, and are likely to be disproportionately affected by the pandemic. This blog post elaborates on the different ways EU member states deal with the COVID-19 crisis and the consequences for refugees and asylum seekers. Discussed are the effects of the pandemic on the processing of asylum applications, the right to health, and rescue at sea. The blog post further discusses how the practises of these states relate to international law.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Asylum, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe