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7411. Meeting U.S. Deterrence Requirements

Author:
Robert Einhorn and Steven Pifer
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In conducting its Nuclear Posture Review, the Trump administration needs to consider how best to meet U.S. deterrence requirements in a changing security environment. Today’s most pressing challenges to U.S. deterrence goals come not from the threat of a massive nuclear attack against the U.S. homeland but from the possibility that nuclear-armed adversaries will use the threat of escalation to the nuclear level to act more aggressively in their regions and prevent the United States from coming to the defense of its allies and partners.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7412. Private sector cyber defence

Author:
Wyatt Hoffman and Ariel Levite
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The cyber revolution and ever-growing transfer of human activities into the virtual world are undermining the social contract between modern states and their citizens. Most governments are becoming unable and unwilling to protect citizens and private enterprises against numerous, sophisticated cyber predators seeking to disrupt, manipulate, or destroy their digital equities. Inevitably, states are focused on protecting governmental assets and national infrastructure, leaving themselves with modest residual capacity and resolve to underwrite other cybersecurity risks. Faced with this reality, private entities are reluctantly but increasingly complementing their passive cybersecurity practices with more assertive “active cyber defense” (ACD) measures. This approach carries substantial risks, but if guided by bounding principles and industry models, it also has the potential for long-term, cumulative benefits.
Topic:
International Affairs and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7413. The Summer of Our Discontent: Sects and Citizens in Lebanon and Iraq

Author:
Maha Yahya
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Lebanon’s and Iraq’s political systems are based on sectarian and ethnic power-sharing. In summer 2015, both countries faced popular protests demanding better governance. These protests began over poor service provision but escalated into opposition to the countries’ overarching power-sharing systems. These demonstrations were framed as nonsectarian, civic responses to deteriorating conditions and corrupt leadership. While protestors raised hopes that change was possible, their curtailment by the sectarian leadership underlined the challenges of political transformation in divided societies.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

7414. The Geographic Trajectory of Conflict and Militancy in Tunisia

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than six years after the revolution that ousted former president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s border regions remain hotbeds of social discontent and agitation. Aggrieved youth increasingly express their anger through fiery protests, street violence, and in some cases violent extremism. In response to this ongoing social unrest and terrorism, the Tunisian government has developed hardline security policies, whose effects often exacerbate social tensions, political violence, and militancy. Breaking this vicious cycle requires Tunisia’s government to rethink its approach to the border regions.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Tunisia

7415. Trumps National Security Strategy: A new brand of mercantilism

Author:
Salman Ahmed and Alexander Bick
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The sixteen national security strategies issued by presidents Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama reaffirmed U.S. leadership of a liberal international order, even as they acknowledged it enabled the rise of others and eroded U.S. economic dominance. President Donald Trump may decide that is no longer tenable. His forthcoming national security strategy will be closely scrutinized to understand what “America First” means for the U.S. role in the world and whether it represents a shift toward a narrower, neo-mercantile approach.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
America

7416. India’s Strategic Choices: China and the Balance of Power in Asia

Author:
Rajesh Rajagopalan
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India is a rising power, but its transformation is occurring in the shadow of China’s even more impressive ascent. Beijing’s influence will almost certainly continue to grow and has already upset Asia’s geopolitical balance. India must decide how to secure its interests in this unbalanced environment by choosing among six potential strategic options: staying unaligned, hedging, building indigenous military power, forming regional partnerships, aligning with China, or aligning with the United States. A closer alignment with Washington likely represents India’s best chance to counter China, while efforts to foster regional partnerships and cultivate domestic military capabilities, although insufficient by themselves, could play a complementary role.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
India

7417. Are India-Pakistan Peace Talks Worth a Damn?

Author:
Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The international community’s routine call for continuous India-Pakistan dialogue is not only misguided but also counterproductive. This entreaty, which often follows major Pakistani-supported terrorist attacks in India, fails to recognize that the security competition between the two nations is not actually driven by discrete, negotiable differences. Rather, the discord is rooted in long-standing ideological, territorial, and power-political antagonisms that are fueled by Pakistan’s irredentism, its army’s desire to subvert India’s ascendency as a great power and exact revenge for past Indian military victories, and its aspirations to be treated on par with India despite their huge differences in capabilities, achievements, and prospects.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
India

7418. The Nuclear Ban treaty: What would follow

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In May 2017, negotiators at the United Nations introduced a draft convention to prohibit the possession of nuclear weapons, as a way to hasten progress toward eventual nuclear disarmament, as called for in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). All the nuclear-armed states except North Korea have boycotted the negotiations, along with many U.S. allies. Unfortunately, the good motives behind the treaty do not mean it will enhance international security, prevent nuclear proliferation, or facilitate actual nuclear disarmament. It may even have unintended consequences that make these goals harder to achieve. Yet there are steps that nuclear-armed states could take, perhaps nudged along by their allies, to help heal rifts that the proposed ban treaty has highlighted.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
America

7419. When corruption is the operating system

Author:
Sarah Chayes
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In some five dozen countries worldwide, corruption can no longer be understood as merely the iniquitous doings of individuals. Rather, it is the operating system of sophisticated networks that cross sectoral and national boundaries in their drive to maximize returns for their members. Honduras offers a prime example of such intertwined, or “integrated,” transnational kleptocratic networks. This case thus illustrates core features of the way apparently open or chaotic economies are in reality structured worldwide—and some of the dynamics that are driving climate change, persistent inequality, and spiraling conflict.
Topic:
Corruption and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Honduras

7420. Official Islam in the Arab World: The Contest for Religious Authority

Author:
Nathan Brown
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
All Arab states have large, official Muslim religious establishments that give governments a major role in religious life. These establishments have developed differently, according to each state’s historical experience. Through them, the state has a say over religious education, mosques, and religious broadcasting—turning official religious institutions into potent policy tools. However, the complexity of the religious landscape means they are rarely mere regime mouthpieces and it can be difficult to steer them in a particular direction.
Topic:
Islam and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus