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7001. Russia’s Active Campaign in Ukraine

Author:
Benjamin Knudsen, Alexandra Lariiciuc, and Franklin Holcomb
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia has continued its destabilization campaign in Ukraine using its proxy forces and other means of subversion. The Trump Administration has indicated it is willing to support Ukraine as the Eastern European country faces Russian aggression. President Trump must act to strengthen the U.S.-Ukraine partnership and increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a broader campaign to deter Russian aggression globally. U.S. officials emphasized their support for Ukraine in a series of diplomatic meetings in May. U.S. President Donald Trump held separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington on May 10 during which he reportedly stressed “Russia’s responsibility to fully implement the Minsk agreements.” This rhetoric echoes previous statements by Trump administration officials. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. will maintain sanctions against Russia “until Moscow reverses the actions that triggered them.”
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

7002. The Campaign for Mosul: April 29-May 11, 2017

Author:
Patrick Martin
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) surged in northwest Mosul in a bid to clear the city prior to Ramadan, anticipated to begin on May 26. Emergency Response Division (ERD) and Federal Police (FP) units joined 9th and 15th Iraqi Army Division units in northwest Mosul on April 28. The combined forces recaptured the neighborhoods of Mushairfa and 30 Tamouz, and are fighting to seize the denser neighborhoods of Harmat, 17 Tamouz, and Hawi Kanisa as of publication. Meanwhile, Counter-Terrorism Services (CTS) recaptured three neighborhoods in western Mosul. ISF are unlikely to clear the city prior to Ramadan. ISIS claimed to launch attacks to retake two Old City gates, Bab al-Jadid and Bab al-Toub. ISIS will also continue to defend the Old City by conducting suicide attacks and attempting to draw fire on civilian gatherings. ISIS will concentrate its defenses around al-Nuri Great Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared publicly in 2014.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East

7003. ISIS Sanctuary

Author:
Alexandra Gutowski and Jesse Rose Dury-Agri
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
U.S.-backed forces continue to advance on the major ISIS-held urban centers of Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have encircled ISIS in Mosul’s Old City. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured Tabqa, a city adjacent to Raqqa that contains Syria’s largest dam. ISIS also lost terrain in southern Syria, as various factions of the Syrian opposition, including some with U.S. backing, cleared ISIS from positions in Suweida and the Qalamoun mountains. ISIS will attempt to offset these losses during its annual Ramadan offensive campaign, anticipated to begin around May 27. ISIS’s campaign in 2017 increasingly resembles its 2013 insurgent campaign; ISIS’s Ramadan plan will likely focus on synchronizing spectacular attacks across different locations for combined effect. Potential targets include religious sites, security forces, and oil infrastructure. ISIS may also conduct ground attacks in Salah ad Din, Anbar, and central Syria where ISIS retains latent combat capability.
Topic:
War and ISIS
Political Geography:
Middle East

7004. Russia’s Unrelenting Attacks On Syrian Civilians

Author:
Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia’s campaign against Syrian civilians continued undeterred by the U.S. strike on April 6 in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in southern Idlib. Local reports indicate Russia regularly used incendiary munitions and bunker buster munitions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces in order to inflict mass casualties on the population in rebel-held terrain following the U.S. strike. Russian airstrikes also targeted local civilian infrastructure from April 4 - 25, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and civil defense centers across Syria. Russia continually targeted Khan Shaykhoun, the site of the regime’s chemical attack on April 4, throughout the reporting period. Furthermore, activists claimed Russia targeted a hospital and civil defense center treating those wounded in Khan Shaykhoun immediately following the regime’s sarin gas attack. The use of chemical weapons is just one of many means the pro-regime coalition has to punish anti-Assad populations in Syria. Russia remains a principal contributor to President Assad’s purposeful campaign to target Syrian civilians. The Assad regime has a long history of violence against its own people, but the advanced capabilities Russia has brought to theater have allowed the pro-regime coalition to target civilians with even greater precision.
Topic:
Human Rights and War
Political Geography:
Russia and Syria

7005. Iraq Situation Report

Author:
Patrick Martin
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
ISIS is waging a renewed offensive campaign in recaptured areas that could exploit vulnerabilities in the Iraqi Government’s ability to respond amidst accelerating political competition before upcoming elections.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Iraq

7006. Russia and Iranian Basing In Syria

Author:
Chris Kozak, Genevieve Casagrande, and Tom Ramage
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Pro-regime basing data accurate through March 21, 2017. Syria Control of Terrain data accurate through April 3, 2017.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East

7007. ISW Analysts React to the U.S.’s Anti-Assad Strike in Syria

Author:
Institute for the Study Of War
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
“There can be no future for Assad and his regime in Syria. It is good that the Trump Administration has recognized that the regime must go in order for negotiated settlement to occur. Demonstrating American will to use military force is a necessary first step. President Trump still needs a larger strategy to achieve the outcomes that US national security and humanity require.” - Jennifer Cafarella
Topic:
War and Developments
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7008. Zombie Nato

Author:
Vibeke Schou Tjalve
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The cabinet nominations, budget proposals and stepped up force displays of the Trump administration signals a decisive militarization. Even if European NATO members also increase their military muscle, a transatlantic gap on the purpose, language and limits of military power seems looming – not least in the field of counter-terrorism.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7010. UNDRIP Implementation Braiding International, Domestic and Indigenous Laws

Author:
CIGI
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In Canada, implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) is an opportunity to explore and reconceive the relationship between international law, Indigenous peoples’ own laws and Canada’s constitutional narratives. In May 2016, Indigenous and Northern A airs Minister Carolyn Bennett addressed the Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues at the United Nations and o cially endorsed UNDRIP1 — without the quali cations attached by the previous government, which held the declaration to be aspirational and not legally binding. While this announcement did not change the legal relevance of UNDRIP in Canada, it does express the political will to begin implementation and signals that Canada may be on a path toward reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. us, the announcement also raised legal and policy questions about how the federal government intends to adopt and implement this soft law instrument.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada