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4711. The Increasing Importance of Hybrid Politics in Europe: Cyber Power Is Changing the Nature of Politics

Author:
Gabriel Cederberg and Jarno limnéll
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This paper examines the concepts of cyber politics and cyber-enabled hybrid warfare. It pays specific attention to the vulnerabilities of modern Western societies from a strategic-political perspective. The paper concludes that instead of cyber politics as such, a new kind of politics is needed – hybrid politics. Hybrid politics will be presented as a potentially winning concept for European security. Key Points: Issues related to cyberspace and its uses have risen to the highest levels of international politics, creating an area and discipline known as cyber politics. Protecting critical infrastructure and services from cyber threats is a complicated matter. The cyber domain is a central part of modern hybrid warfare, and malicious cyber-technical and cyber-psychological threats have both increased. Hybrid politics is a useful concept to describe both the importance of a holistic approach and the nature of high politics in the modern security reality. Hybrid politics is constantly changing the modern political process. The European Union (EU) should primarily understand hybrid politics as a potentially “winning concept” and take active steps to implement and sustain this understanding.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, War, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

4712. Making Enhanced CACs the Rule: A Proposed Amendment of the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act

Author:
Gregory Makoff
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The recent rise in sovereign debt litigation in the US Federal Court System is an unintended consequence of the US Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act of 1976 related to an unanticipated shift of the international sovereign debt market from a narrow loan market to a global bond market. Collective action clauses (CACs) — developed in 2003 and “enhanced” in 2014 — are, in theory, an effective contract-based tool to facilitate orderly debt restructurings and control the holdout creditor problem. However, compliance by countries is voluntary and may not be sustained. To assure sustained compliance and to reduce the future incidence of holdout creditor litigation, the US Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act should be amended to provide that only bonds with enhanced CACs will be subject to suit and enforcement in the US courts.
Topic:
Debt, Legal Theory, Credit, and Global Bond Market
Political Geography:
United States and North America

4713. Against All Odds - Decreasing the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry for Regional Hegemony through and in the Wake of the JCPOA

Author:
Bernd W. Kubbig, Marc Finaud, and Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The dangerous spiralling of the rivalry between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran for hegemony/supremacy in the Middle East/Gulf is the factor that has the most negative impact on the entire region. The authors make the case for using the specific features and successful negotiations of the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a way to downgrade this bilateral rivalry. This agreement was the focal point of (pre-)negotiations especially between the United States and Iran that de-escalated the tensions between the two enemies and turned them – at least during the administration of President Barack Obama – into adversaries with an interest in selective cooperation. The agreement is living proof that formerly incompatible interests can be overcome. It is true, however, that, despite its complexity, the JCPOA can only have a limited influence on developments in the region. This is why the authors identify the roots of the intensifying Saudi Iranian rivalry at the domestic, regional and international levels – with corresponding recommended steps to de-escalate this struggle. The prospects for such a positive scenario appear to be particularly promising if elites in both Riyadh and Tehran – especially since they are facing increasing domestic challenges to regime/government stability – opt to slow down or even reverse their countries’ current course. A more assertive population, especially among women and the youth, has become a new factor for serious change. This may incentivise these elites to pursue less costly foreign policy approaches – including finding appropriate forums for serious dialogue, with de-escalating the mutually demonising rhetoric as the first step.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

4714. From Fisheries Subsidies to Energy Reform under International Trade Law

Author:
Markus Gehring
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Economic, environmental and other international regimes are jointly facing a wicked climate problem. Climate change impacts on human activity and ecosystems have the potential to jeopardize attaining shared goals of these different regimes, and yet can only be addressed by overcoming the division and occasional conflict between their different stakeholders and areas of focus. Discussions have begun in the hallways on how trade law could best be leveraged to bring the international community together to prevent climate-related harms. This paper argues that World Trade Organization (WTO) fisheries subsidies negotiations should be a priority area for those practitioners and researchers building links between trade and climate law. It is submitted that successful fisheries subsidies reform will directly contribute to the implementation of the Paris Agreement and to the delivery of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 (“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”), given the important synergies that exist between the transformation of fisheries subsidies and climate mitigation and adaptation. Furthermore, fisheries subsidies negotiations are of crucial importance for international climate law because they can provide a case study to learn from and increase chances of success with fossil fuel subsidy reform. This paper provides a brief historical overview of trade law negotiations aiming to reduce and reform fisheries subsidies, and shows the important synergies that exist between reforming fisheries subsidies and implementing the Paris Agreement as well as the SDGs. The paper then extracts five drivers for success that can be observed from the current process of fisheries subsidies reform: leadership of key countries and of the WTO Secretariat itself; meticulous academic, scientific and policy background analysis; commitment by civil society and the private sector; the development of alternatives to those subsidies that encourage overfishing; and inter-regime learning. Lastly, the paper discusses the transferability of these drivers for success to prevent climate harms and to address more general challenges encountered in both the climate and trade regimes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, World Trade Organization, Maritime, and Fishing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4715. World table: Monitoring arms control and disarmament agreements 2018

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
GCSP's Senior Programme Advisor and Arms Proliferation Cluster Leader, Marc Finaud, together with the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), Parliamentarians for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament and the University of London (SOAS), are working on a joint project that aims to provide parliamentarians from around the world with documents and material about arms control and disarmament agreements to help them monitor the actions of their governments.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4716. Addressing Excessive Risk Taking in the Financial Sector: A Corporate Governance Approach

Author:
Steven L. Schwarcz and Maziar Peihani
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Excessive corporate risk taking by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) is widely seen as one of the primary causes of the global financial crisis. In response, an array of international reforms, under the auspices of the Group of Twenty’s (G20’s) standard-setting bodies, has been adopted to try to curb that risk taking. However, these reforms only impose substantive requirements, such as capital adequacy, and cannot by themselves prevent future systemic collapses. To complete the G20 financial reform agenda, SIFI managers should have a duty to society (a public governance duty) not to engage their firms in excessive risk taking that leads to systemic externalities. Regulating governance in this way can help supplement the ongoing regulatory reforms and reduce the likelihood of systemic harm to the public.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reform, Regulation, Risk, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4717. Climate Change Disclosure of the Financial Sector

Author:
Zachary Folger-Laronde and Olaf Weber
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
As the impacts of climate change continue to grow in severity, focus has turned toward the climate change implications associated with the products and services of the financial sector. It is estimated that the indirect carbon emissions, which are caused in the financial sector by borrowers, investees and financed projects, are 50 to 200 times larger than the direct impacts of the financial sector. It is evident that a decarbonization strategy is needed for more than the fossil fuel industry and will require significant changes to most economic sectors. This added focus toward the financial sector has led to demands for enhanced disclosure of climate change information with regard to financed clients and projects. However, there remains limited guidance in how the financial sector should disclose its carbon performance to its shareholders and stakeholders. This paper reviews the highlights from an empirical study that investigated the types of carbon performance voluntarily disclosed by banks and the type of carbon impact emissions disclosed. Policy recommendations are made that aim to facilitate and standardize disclosures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4718. Reconciliation beyond the Box: The UN Declaration and Plurinational Federalism in Canada

Author:
Sarah Morales and Joshua Nicholas
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has publicly shared a vision of a plurinational state brought about through truth and reconciliation. He has expressed hope that Canadians are ready to rectify past wrongs and undo the legacy of colonialism by using the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UN Declaration) as “a way forward” to achieve self-determination, dignity and respect for Indigenous peoples. Many have questioned the government’s commitment to reconciliation built upon nation-to-nation and government-to-government relationships. Governmental support of major development projects such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, against strong opposition from some Indigenous voices, has created skepticism. Many Indigenous leaders have expressed concerns about how changes to a number of laws currently making their way through Parliament will impact Indigenous people, and whether their concerns are being fully heard by government. With respect to the government’s rights recognition and implementation framework, some Indigenous communities argue that the focus should be on the affirmation rather than the mere recognition of rights that are already enshrined in the UN Declaration. This paper looks at the history of Indigenous treaty making in Canada, the history of the courts’ statements regarding Crown sovereignty, underlying title and legislative power, and how the UN Declaration might lead Canada and Indigenous peoples toward genuine nation-to-nation relationships.
Topic:
Energy Policy, United Nations, Colonialism, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

4719. Rethinking Industrial Policy for the Data-driven Economy

Author:
Dan Ciuriak
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper reviews industrial policy in theory and historical practice. It makes the case for a fundamental reframing based on the centrality of data to the data-driven digital economy, the various roles that data plays in this economy (as a medium of digital transactions, as intangible capital and as infrastructure of a digitized economy), and the heightened scope for market failure in the data-driven economy. A number of points to guide the formation of industrial and innovation policy in the knowledge-based and data-driven digital economy are suggested. As part of their data strategies, countries should assess the market value of data generated in the exercise of public sector governance and data generated in Canadian public space; put in place procedures to capture data and regulate its capture; and use procurement to develop new capabilities in the private sector.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Infrastructure, Governance, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

4720. The Rise of Mega-Regionalism: Revealing Canada’s Blind Spots

Author:
Jeremy de Beer
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The era of global multilateralism in international trade is coming to an end. The World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Doha Round, which sought to reduce multilateral trade barriers, has been declared “dead and buried” according to certain scholars. New WTO reform efforts may be rekindled; however, the world has shifted toward international economic regionalism. The WTO defines regional trade agreements as reciprocal preferential trade agreements between two or more partners (whether or not from the same region), of which almost 300 are in force. While these agreements can be called bilateral, free, regional or preferential trade agreements, there is a more important issue than naming.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, World Trade Organization, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America