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3911. From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years

Author:
Carl Bildt and Eric K. Leonard
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The EU’s foreign policy is inadequate to the task of keeping Europe safe in today’s world of great power politics and uncertainty. Over the last five years, trust between Brussels and member states dwindled, and policy came to reflect the lowest common denominator of popular opinion. The coming five years herald acute pressure on Europe, particularly as Russia, China, and the US undermine multilateral institutions and treat trade, finance data, and security guarantees as instruments of power rather than global public goods. The new high representative should move quickly to rewire European foreign policymaking to exercise strategic sovereignty. The high representative needs more support on this strategy – from deputies, special representatives, and foreign ministers tasked with specific roles. The new leadership team in Brussels needs to reoperationalise European defence, build Europe’s self-sufficiency through a strong European pillar in NATO, and consider innovations such as a European Security Council. Europe will only build greater unity by tackling controversial issues head on in the European Council and the Foreign Affairs Council. The high representative needs to play a much more active role in these debates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

3912. Paradox of power: Russia, Armenia, and Europe after the Velvet Revolution Richard Giragosian

Author:
Richard Giragosian
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution swept old elites out of power, but, unlike Ukraine’s Maidan revolution, had no broad effect on relations between Russia and the West. Armenia lacks friendly neighbours in its immediate region, and it remains heavily reliant on Russia. Russia is a dominant presence in the country but finds itself in a ‘paradox of power’: it wishes to avoid turning Armenian opinion against it, especially since 2016 revelations about Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan. The government and public wish to loosen ties with Russia, strengthen them with Europe, and improve relations with neighbouring countries, including Iran. Europe should break out of its self-imposed ‘ring of restraint’ with Armenia by increasing its technical support, something it can do without provoking Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Geopolitics, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Armenia

3913. Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky

Author:
Gustav Gressel
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Despite Ukrainians’ deep unhappiness with the corruption and inefficiency of the judiciary and security bodies, the Poroshenko administration failed to reform these services. Political interference and personal enrichment have long been part of the practice of these services, overshadowing the strong work they are often capable of and holding back reformist elements. The office of the prosecutor general and the Ukrainian Security Service need particular attention, but merely passing new laws will not be enough: replacing incumbent high-level officials should be an early step. The EU, US, and NATO have worked effectively together on encouraging reform in Ukraine, but they must now ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Government, Reform, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3914. Border games: Has Spain found an answer to the populist challenge on migration?

Author:
Shoshana Fine and José I. Torreblanca
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Spain, and Europe, need a new story about migration – there is some recognition of this in Spain but it remains to be seen how the country will put this into practice. Spaniards are relatively open towards migration, but the policy challenge for their government should be to allay, and not provoke, fears of migrant invasion. The Spanish government has called for reform of the EU asylum system, favouring solidarity and shared responsibility as opposed to simply stopping ‘secondary movements’. Spain’s migration diplomacy aspires to work with origin and transit countries rather than acting in a coercive way towards them. The Spanish experience should inform EU member states’ efforts to seek to answers to the populist challenge: they should enact comprehensive, planned, and proactive policies that see migration as normal and necessary.
Topic:
Government, Migration, Border Control, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

3915. The instinctive multilateralist: Portugal and the politics of cooperation

Author:
Susi Dennison and Livia Franco
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Portuguese people believe that their country’s fate is inextricably tied to that of the European Union. A survey carried out ahead of the Portuguese national election suggests that the Portuguese bounced back quickly from a surge in Euroscepticism linked to the strict conditions of Portugal’s 2011 bailout package. Portugal values the economic benefits of EU membership primarily, but its people believe in the EU as more than just an economic project. The Portuguese are instinctive multilateralists, and hope that the bloc can help them tackle the challenges of globalisation: from climate change to cooperation on the impact of freedom of movement on Europe.
Topic:
Climate Change, Globalization, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe and Portugal

3916. The future of EU Finances: New Own Resources

Author:
Markéta Mlčúchová
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Reform of the EU budget is not necessarily of a technical character, rather it is a response to the growing Euroscepticism and populism within EU Member States. Besides restoring the citizens’ confidence and belief in the EU, it is necessary to ascertain that the budget of the EU is prepared and sufficiently agile to react to the growing global instability, migration flows, terrorism, and ensure both internal and external security, combat climate change and the financial drop caused by the exit of the UK. Despite the fact the EU budget has gone through multiple - mostly minor - reforms, those were inefficient in keeping it up with current times. In the context of the financial and migration crises, the budget was not prepared to react to unexpected developments... This contributed, inter alia, to loss of confidence among EU citizens and caused damage to the EU credibility. Reform of the revenue side of the budget is entirely legitimate and essential yet provides only a partial solution to the situation. Revenues reform should be, in any case, accompanied by a critical re-assessment of expenditures, as was emphasized by the EU Commission in its Reflection Paper, since a close link between the expenditures and revenues exists. Although this paper focuses exclusively on the side of revenues, it is important to underline that any reform concerning revenues would not be enough for a successful reform of the EU budget. Only a complex re-design of the whole system can restore the trust and bring about the desired results.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe

3917. The challenges of the military integration in the EU: an approach to the heterogeneity of weapon system categories

Author:
Adrian Blasquez
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The subject of EU's defence has been treated as a political challenge widely covered in the media in recent years. However, less attention has been paid to the troubles it presents at the military level. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on this issue, specifically, on the challenges that multiplicity of weapon systems in Europe entail, and the potential advantages and challenges pooled public procurement and harmonization of defence entails. To this end, it will briefly review the collaborative projects that have taken place in the last decades to focus later on two initiatives launched at EU level: the PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) and the EDF (European Defence Fund). Hereinafter, it will touch upon the implications this phenomenon has for the defence market and armaments standardization.
Topic:
Military Affairs, European Union, Weapons, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

3918. An Arduous Path: Are Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania Ready to Join the Area?

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The concept of free movement between European countries anchored in the Schengen Agreement, manifested in the creation of the borderless Schengen Area, is arguably one of the great achievements of European integration. By facilitating conditions for trade, services and movement of citizens, the Schengen Area acts as one of the converging economic factors for Member States. Decision on the dissolution of state borders is generally seen as a positive step for economic development, regional integration and a sign of trust between the countries. Nevertheless, it also raises many questions and challenges, especially on the topic of security and compliance of national laws with rules and conditions set in the Agreement. This article will focus on the accession of Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen Area and discuss the main difficulties and obstacles for each country.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, and Schengen
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia

3919. MFF Negotiations: What Czechs think of the latest development

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The original goal of the previous European Commission – to finish the post 2020 multiannual financial framework (MFF) negotiations by the end of the year – is shattered. The December European Council did not reach any final decision, so the earliest deadline is the March EC meeting, with a possibility of slipping into German presidency in the second half of 2020. This would leave a very little time for preparation of partnership agreements with the member states, thus potentially leading to disruption in utilization of EU funding. As of now, it seems that the EU has still a long way to go until it reaches agreement over the future MFF. Member states are negotiating not only about the total size of the future European budgets, but also allocations to various headings or system of resources.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Financial Markets, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

3920. Serbia's state of play regarding Chapters 23 and 24: One step forward, two steps back

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The discussion on the future of EU enlargement was opened again this year. After yet another disappointment for Albania and North Macedonia at the European Council’s session in October, the discussion turned towards a revision of the enlargement methodology. The argument that the enlargement process needs to undergo a reform, put forward by France as a justification of its October veto for Albania and North Macedonia, is based on the fact that the current process is not delivering adequately. That is true especially for the current frontrunners, Montenegro and Serbia, setting a bad example for other candidate countries in the region and giving more reasons to oppose enlargement to some already sceptical EU Member States. Both countries’ progress on the accession path has recently slowed down significantly, with some suggesting that the current low number of chapters that are being opened and closed, and progress only on “technical” rather than substantial matters, is due to the serious problems both countries have in the area of rule of law and democratic standards.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia