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3871. The Use of Predictive Analysis Programs in Police Intelligence: A European Comparison / El uso de programas de análisis predictivo en la inteligencia policial: una comparativa europea

Author:
Virginia Cinelli and Alberto Manrique Gan
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Nowadays, two main limitations persist in intelligence analysis: the intrinsic existence of a certain degree of uncertainty and the large volume of information available. In order to face these problems, since the end of the 90s, technology and statistics have been used in the field of security to tackle the analytical limitations of human beings, improving their performances. As a result, professionals in the crime prevention areas started using technology in investigation to calculate the probability that a (criminal) event might occur in the future. Such a phenomenon is also called predictive analysis. Today, Europe stands out both for the number and the type of predictive programs implemented in different national contexts. The main objective of this article is to analyze the phenomenon of predictive policing in the European context through a comparative analysis of 6 cases study in 5 different countries (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) to, firstly, assess the implications in the improvement of the security context of the European Union, and secondly, to detect the innovative cases within this framework.
Topic:
Crime, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands

3872. The Sea as Catalyst of Geopolitics: from Mahan to the Chinese Boom / El mar como catalizador de la geopolítica: de Mahan al auge chino

Author:
Josep Baqués Quesada
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
China is the State that has grown the most economically and militarily in the past decades. Although its armed forces are still far from the US, the enormous Chinese commercial projection and its policy of providing facilities in ports on all continents, together with the creation of a powerful fleet of the high seas, recall the path traveled years ago by other great powers. But China, unlike the United Kingdom of the nineteenth century or the USA in the twentieth century, is rather a Rimland´s power with one foot in the Heartland. Precisely for this reason, this analysis tests the Chinese capacity from the theoretical framework least favorable for her, that is, the maritime power of Mahan. The conclusion is that, despite certain deficits in purely geographical issues, many of the parameters once defined by Mahan endorse the Chinese candidacy.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Navy, Economic growth, and Maritime
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3873. Biopolitics and Necropolitics on the Northern Border / La biopolítica y la necropolítica en la seguridad ciudadana de Tijuana

Author:
R. Guy Emerson
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This article explores the functioning of citizen security. It is developed with reference to the initiatives in Tijuana, Mexico, and reveals how citizen security operates through technologies that simultaneously generate both compatible citizens and abject non-citizens. Both groups become an integral part of citizen security and operate within a logic through which one tries to ensure the life of the former (biopolitics) and the exclusion of the latter is generated (the necropolitics). From biopolitics, the population is understood through surveillance measures that allow the accumulation of information and the analysis of data. These concern the observed patterns of behavior within this population, with the aim of managing random events and populations outside of what is empirically normal. These abnormal populations are then regulated through initiatives composed of the National Program for the Prevention of Crime (PRONAPRED), with the purpose of giving them certain life skills to overcome their risk situations. On the other hand, non-citizens are treated based on an exclusionary inclusion (the necropolitics). In practice, this implies that the non-citizen population is seen as an object of hierarchical surveillance. The latter is designed to regulate movement and limit the danger that these non-citizens represent for public safety. Similarly, non-citizen individuals are marginalized to the extent that their inclusion in the PRONAPRED security programs makes possible their eventual expulsion from Mexico. Thus, the article concludes that citizen security determines and exacerbates the citizen / non-citizen distinction, a distinction that can mean life or death.
Topic:
Security, Citizenship, Biopolitics, and Necropolitics
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

3874. Terrorism in the Political Landscape of Post-peace Accord in Colombia / El terrorismo en el escenario del post-acuerdo en Colombia

Author:
Olmer Muñoz Sánchez, Julie Pontvianne, and Sebastián Álvarez Posada
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In Colombia, terrorism is not a new threat to national security. Terrorism historically has been closely linked to the existence of an internal armed conflict and to the evolution of the “method of action” (método de acción) carried out by its main and secondary actors (guerrilla fighters, drug traffickers, militiamen). This article aims to analyze the different types of terrorism that have existed in Colombia as well as the way they have affected security and, finally, present its evolution in the national political context, from the signing of the most recent peace accord to the present.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

3875. Contraband, Drug Trafficking and the Configuration of Institutional Circuits for their Protection in Mexico / Contrabando,tráficodedrogasylaconfiguracióndecircuitosinstitucionalesparasuprotecciónenMéxico

Author:
Carlos Antonio Flores Pérez
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In this article analyses the evolution, throughout the XX century, of criminal networks that had participation in illicit trafficking goods and illegal psychoactive drugs- in the Mexican states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, in the border with Texas, United States. Based on the information contained in government documents found in the General Archive of the Nation (AGN) of Mexico, federal criminal courts of the United States and newspaper sources, I show the central role played by federal and state institutional actors to consolidate these networks and their illegal activities through the guarantee of impunity. These actors, along with their partners in the business and criminal fields, set up institutional circuits to protect such traffics and allow the integration of illicit capital in the formal economy.
Topic:
Crime, Narcotics Trafficking, Economy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

3876. Modernization of the Strategic Intelligence System for National Security in Mexico / Modernización del Sistema de Inteligencia Estratégica para la Seguridad Nacional en México

Author:
Manuel Ignacio Balcazar Villareal
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Derived from the review and analysis of the production of national strategic intelligence, and its implications for National Security in Mexico, a model is proposed that systematizes and integrates the identified components, in order to provide elements that strengthen intelligence capabilities national. The proposal is the result of interviews with producers and consumers of intelligence, as well as academic and professional experience of the author, after analyzing the functioning of other systems and collegiate mechanisms.
Topic:
Intelligence, National Security, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Central America and Mexico

3877. Drug Trafficking between Latin America and Africa: A contemporary Case between Security and Global Governance / Narcotráfico entre América Latina y África: un caso contemporáneo entre seguridad y gobernanza global

Author:
Mohamed Badine El Yattioui and Claudia Barona Castañeda
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In this paper, we will analyze two regions and the relationship between them, concerning drug trafficking (excepting Morocco, a hashish producer), posing a great variability challenges for State Security and their formal cooperation and even further, a real concern of global governance matter. How to create original and international instruments adapted to fight this illegal market, which has an impact on Europe?
Topic:
Security, International Affairs, Narcotics Trafficking, Drugs, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

3878. Negotiating Security in Latin America, How Russia Regained a Foothold in the Western Hemisphere

Author:
Taylor Valley
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
What is Russia’s geopolitical game in Latin America? Since the early-2000s, we have witnessed bilateral trade spike by 44 percent, around 40 diplomatic visits by high-ranking Russian officials, and budding military cooperation through joint-naval exercises in Latin American ports. Some explain this growth as Russian efforts to create multipolarity in the western hemisphere and undermine U.S. influence in the region. This narrative of bilateral relations disregards a key element that may be driving Russia’s engagement— the role of Latin American leadership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Imperialism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

3879. Does the New Saudi Reactor Justify Proliferation Fears?

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
In early April 2019, Saudi Arabia’s progress in constructing its first nuclear reactor with the assistance of Argentine firm INVAP was the subject of considerable media attention that speculated on the dangers of this development. This was made all the more alarming given the reported nuclear technological assistance to the kingdom that the American administration approved. In fact, a cursory review of events surrounding this development reveals that there are at least two indicators that can be seen as cause for concern. First, Saudi leadership rhetoric pertaining to proliferation has not been reassuring, as crown prince Mohammed bin Salman signaled his country’s resolve to pursue the path of nuclear armament in the event that Iran, its regional rival, moves in that direction too. Second, the construction of this reactor is seen as the first step toward acquiring the knowledge and experience necessary for developing a sizeable nuclear power infrastructure that will supply the kingdom’s needs in the future. The kingdom has plans to build two large nuclear reactors to diversify its energy sources and meet its electricity needs, as well as a number of small reactors for desalination purposes. As these plans begin to materialize, the importance of Saudi compliance under a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) will become indispensable and equivocation on the matter unacceptable. Having said this, speculation that is largely focused on a handful of events reported by the media is not good at providing a clear picture. Grounding analysis in an understanding of regional politics and global nonproliferation dynamics is likely to capture a clearer picture of the situation. There are at least two factors should be grounds for concern about potential Saudi nuclear proliferation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Infrastructure, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

3880. What to Make of the Government’s Decision not to Extend its Mission in Mali

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali