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3761. Opinion: What Is China’s Core Economic Interest in Trade War?

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The trade conflict between China and the U.S. has lasted for more than half a year. The two sides have held several rounds of consultations, but agreements were later broken and tensions have only intensified. The spat will likely be protracted, with frictions to continue and possibly escalate for a period of time, given the two countries’ diverging interests, public opinions and historical experiences. A broad range of issues are involved in the trade dispute. For example, the U.S. has pressured China on forced technology transfer, talent strategy and industrial policy issues, as well as issues the two sides have long been at odds over, such as intellectual property rights, labor, environmental protection, stateowned enterprise reform and foreign exchange rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. has targeted products and sectors that go well beyond those in which China has a competitive advantage. The U.S. tariffs also target industries that the country plans to focus on for future development.
Topic:
Development, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3762. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
Topic:
Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3763. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
Topic:
Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3764. Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening up?

Author:
Fang Cai
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China’s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years haveled to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists areobligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in thisarea has positively assessed and documented China’s successful experiences. However,theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine tojudge China’s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historicallogic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chineseexperience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on theexperiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chroniclesthe process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus betweenthem. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation andallocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms havespurred China’s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity.The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for furtherreform are discussed.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3765. How effective are pro-youth laws and policies?

Author:
Aaron Azelton, Bret Barrowman, and Lisa Reppell
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
More than half the world’s population is under 30, yet young people remain underrepresented in government and decision-making processes. There is a growing consensus among practitioners and scholars that politically and civically engaged youth are integral to a country’s economic and democratic health. As national governments, international donors, and local advocates increasingly recognize that youth participation is vital to stability and success, a variety of public measures, policy mechanisms and legal reforms aimed at promoting youth engagement have gained traction. roponents of these measures contend that pro-youth policies and reforms can increase youth participation and, ultimately, result in better policy outcomes across a range of issues. However, there has been relatively little empirical research on if, and under what conditions, these pro-youth measures improve the quantity or quality of youth participation and representation in political processes.
Topic:
Social Movement, Youth, Public Policy, and Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3766. New Assessment on Violence Against Women in Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Gabrielle Bardall and Terry Ann Rogers
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
iolence against women in politics is a substantial threat to the integrity of the electoral process, affecting women’s participation as voters, candidates, election officials, activists and political party leaders and undermining free, fair and inclusive democratic processes. Elections in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are characterized by violence and tribal politics that contribute to a high prevalence of violence against women in elections (VAWE). A new report from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) assesses VAWE in PNG following the 2017 national elections, drawing on fieldwork, research and IFES’ experiences operating in PNG. The analysis is organized into three key factors that influence the incidence and impact of VAWE
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Women, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:
Papua New Guinea and Oceania

3767. How to strengthen Europe’s Policy Brief agenda on digital connectivity

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Connectivity is high on the EU’s agenda, but its digital dimension remains underdeveloped. The short paragraph on digital in the EU connectivity strategy is telling. The EU’s distinct approach to digital connectivity – with a focus on the internal market, rule-making and development – differs from similar strategies, particularly China and its Digital Silk Road. "Now is the time to act on digital connectivity's practical as well as strategic elements of hard infrastructure and business operations." Needed, now, is a comprehensive strategic vision that spurs action on all three practical elements of digital connectivity – namely, telecommunications infrastructure, business and regulation – and gives strategic guidance in the political and even securitized sense, and not only from a market perspective. Read the full Policy Brief by Senior Research Fellow Maaike Okano-Heijmans.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, and Digital Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Europe

3768. Are the Dutch really going green? Policy Brief Climate politics in the Low Lands (part two)

Author:
Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This is the second Clingendael Policy Brief on climate policy development in the Netherlands. The first 'Are the Dutch going Green' was published in January 2019 and dealt with the political context and policy proposals made between autumn 2017 and the end of 2018. This policy brief focuses on the most recent developments until mid-September 2019. During this period the Dutch Parliament adopted a Climate Bill, provincial elections were won by a climate-sceptical party, and political agreement was reached on a comprehensive package of climate policies: the national Climate Agreement. This agreement, referred to as the ‘biggest refurbishment of the Netherlands since the Second World War’, was pre-cooked in an extensive negotiating process between government and civil society. The policies target especially the industrial, energy, transportation, housing and agriculture sectors. A key element of the societal debate focused on the costs of climate policies and how they should be allocated. In order to hammer out a political deal, the Dutch government had to change key assumptions of its constituting coalition agreement of 2017, and adjust some of the proposals developed by civil society, notably those favoured by industry. A lesson learned from the Dutch case is that setting ambitions may be relatively easy, but translating them into effective climate action is a tougher job, particularly when political decisions have to be taken on who will pay for what.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

3769. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Author:
Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

3770. Progress on implementing the Briefing note Hague Declaration on Climate and Security

Author:
Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Hague Declaration is a six-point plan covering a call for an institutional mechanism on climate and security within the UN system, for a process to develop a climate security risk assessment in Lake Chad, and for concrete action in two of the most vulnerable post-conflict countries: Mali and Iraq. It is also a commitment by a growing community of practice to systematically address security risks related to climate change - from analysis to action, built on the conviction that everyone must work together to address and manage risks and threats before they arise. This briefing note by Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda presents the outcome of a survey by the Planetary Security Initiative on the objectives with the Hague Declaration, its achievements so far, and the gaps in and challenges to progress that still need to be overcome.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Mali, Global Focus, and The Hague