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36751. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

36752. Resolving the Security Dilemma in the Persian Gulf

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The paper is introduced by an analysis of the concept of region, followed by an application of this analytical framework to the Persian Gulf region. Several problems in this region are identified, including a seemingly open-ended arms race and a significant risk of war. As a possible remedy to these problems, the author proposes a policy of Common Security, intended to satisfy the legitimate security problems of all states in the region. As a consequence, he recommends efforts to ensure the strictly defensive nature of the military postures of regional states, to be implemented unilaterally as well as by means of arms control negotiations and regulations of the international arms trade. The paper concludes with a Postscript on the Iraqi crisis of 1997/98.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Persia

36753. Representations of Northernness — Spatial Politics and Political Spaces in a Nordic Journal

Author:
Pirjo Jukarainen
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Spatial politics is 'alive and kicking'. Human aspiration to define, represent and master spaces has not ended. Claim about 'the end of the geography', due to the decreasing importance of spatial distance or location, is thus misleading. Albeit the mode of spatial politics is obviously changing, it does not mean that it would completely loose its significance. Northern hemisphere makes no exception in this respect. An analysis of the Nordic journal, 'Nord Revy' (later called 'North') shows that spaces are actively constructed and spatial development strategies are extensively formulated also in the name of 'northernness'. 'Northernness' gets multiple meanings and becomes 'real' within various spatial representations. This analysis covers about seven years of spatial development starting from the year 1990, thus somewhat revealing the overall spatial politics of the 90's.
Topic:
Politics and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe

36754. Mediation Activities by non-State Actors: an Account of Sant'Egidio's Initiatives

Author:
Marta Martinelli
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In 1993 Bouthros Bouthros-Ghali expressed his admiration for the methods performed by a group of Catholic peace-lovers, called Community of Sant'Egidio, in their attempts at mediating a deep rooted conflict like the one in Mozambique. He said: " The Community of Sant'Egidio has developed techniques which are different but at the same time complementary to those performed by professional peace-makers. The Community has discreetly worked in Mozambique for years, towards a peaceful adjustment to the situation...It has practised its techniques characterised by confidentiality and informality, together and in harmony with the official work of international governments and inter-governmental organisations. Starting from the Mozambican experience the term "Italian formula" is used to explain this mixture, unique in its kind, of commitment to peace, governmental and not. Respect for the parties to the conflict and all those involved in the field is fundamental for these initiatives to be successful"
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Italy, and Mozambique

36755. Rival Views Of Postcommunist Market Society

Author:
Béla Greskovits
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
While reviewing various interpretations of the postcommunist transformation it is demonstrated that the manner social scientists think about postcommunism has much in common with the ideas of their predecessors who faced the emergence of capitalism over the past centuries. What explains the continuity of the major views? Why did the debate on the perspectives of capitalism and on the nature of its strengths and weaknesses reappear in the new historical case of postcommunist market society? This author argues that neither the specific historical nor the systemic context of capitalist expansion can account for the prevalence of competing interpretations. Rather the latter is the standard way social scientists think about systems and systemic change in general. But the trench-war between rival views of postcommunist market society also reflects the impact of new psychological, political, and institutional factors specific to the mass-production of social science ideas towards the end of the XXth century.
Topic:
Communism and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

36756. Building a Composite Polity: Popular Contention in the European Union

Author:
Sidney Tarrow
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
While much research has focussed on the interest group process growing up around the institutions of European union, far less attention has been given to the contentious forms of politics appearing at the base of the process of European integration. Part of the problem lies in models of integration that either focus on single levels of the European Union — states or supranational entities — or on vertical policy networks and domains. But another important part results from the difficulty of systematically analyzing the reactions of ordinary people to EU directives. This paper both reports on a new, computer-assisted method of studying European contentious politics and draws on a case study of recent industrial conflict to demonstrate how supranational actors, national political elites, domestic social actors and the press are beginning to interact to produce a composite — and contentious — European polity.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe

36757. Efficiency of the Welfare State

Author:
Pierre Pestieau and Claudine Gouyette
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
In general, when the concepts of efficiency and of welfare state are coupled, one first thinks of the effects of the welfare state, notably including the taxes it implies and the benefits it generates, on the efficiency of the economy. This topic has been widely discussed in recent works. One of the main charges addressed to modern welfare states is, indeed, that they would hurt economic performance and international competitiveness. Another charge just as widespread is that they would be inefficient in the provision of social services, and be responsible for the proliferation of transfer programs that are costly and miss their target populations. This charge is thus different from the first one, though not totally unrelated. It concerns the economic efficiency of the welfare state per se, and this is the topic of this paper.
Topic:
Government and Political Economy

36758. Conflict in Kosovo: Failure of Prevention? An Analytical Documentation, 1992-1998.

Author:
Stefan Troebst
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Not too much of inside knowledge of the Balkans was needed to realise that the winter of 1997/98 turned the formerly autonomous Yugoslav province of Kosovo inhabited predominantly by Albanians into one of the most violent-prone crisis zones in Europe. In September 1997, a massive protest movement of Albanian students gained momentum; from November 1997 on, an underground "Liberation Army of Kosovo" (UÇK)) with an estimated strength of several hundred fighters increased the number of attacks on and assassinations of Serbian officials and police officers; and the regime retaliated first by police violence, show trials, long-term sentences, and nationalist tirades, then by bringing more and more security forces into the central part of Kosovo. In January 1998, The Economist depicted Kosovo as "Europe's roughest neighbourhood”.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

36759. Perspectives From Four Continents: Solving the Global Public Pensions Crisis

Author:
Cato Institute
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
On December 8-9 the Cato Institute and The Economist cosponsored a conference on the global public pensions crisis at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London. Among the speakers were Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization; Clive Crook, deputy editor of The Economist; Carlos Boloña, former finance minister of Peru; Mukul Asher of the University of Singapore; and Peter Ferrara, chief economist at Americans for Tax Reform and an associate policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Excerpts from their remarks follow.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
London

36760. America's Maligned and Misunderstood Trade Deficit

Author:
Daniel T. Griswold
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
America's annual trade deficit, already large by historical standards, could reach a new record in 1998, fueling protectionist sentiment in Congress. Political fallout from the trade deficit numbers could impede efforts to reduce barriers to trade in the United States and abroad. Contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness at home. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment. This renders trade policy an ineffective tool for reducing a nation's trade deficit.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States