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3482. The Contributions of Socioeconomic and Opioid Supply Factors to Geographic Variation in U.S. Drug Mortality Rates
- Author:
- Shannon Monnat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades deaths from opioids and other drugs have grown to be a major U.S. population health problem, but the magnitude of the crisis varies across the U.S., and explanations for widespread geographic variation in the severity of the drug crisis are limited. An emerging debate is whether geographic differences in drug mortality rates are driven mostly by opioid supply factors or socioeconomic distress. To explore this topic, I examined relationships between county-level non-Hispanic white drug mortality rates for 2000-02 and 2014-16 and several socioeconomic and opioid supply measures across the urban-rural continuum and within different rural labor markets. Net of county demographic composition, average non-Hispanic white drug mortality rates are highest and increased the most in large metro counties. In 2014-16, the most rural counties had an average of 6.2 fewer deaths per 100,000 population than large metro counties. Economic distress, family distress, persistent population loss, and opioid supply factors (exposure to prescription opioids and fentanyl) are all associated with significantly higher drug mortality rates. However, the magnitude of associations varies across the urban-rural continuum and across different types of rural labor markets. In rural counties, economic distress appears to be a stronger predictor than opioid supply measures of drug mortality rates, but in urban counties, opioid supply factors are more strongly associated with drug mortality rates than is economic distress. Ultimately, the highest drug mortality rates are disproportionately concentrated in economically distressed mining and service sector dependent counties with high exposure to prescription opioids and fentanyl.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Inequality, Macroeconomics, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- United States
3483. Finance in Economic Growth: Eating the Family Cow
- Author:
- Peter Temin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- It is hard to fit finance into the measurement of national product and of economic growth, and similar problems bedevil efforts to include other intangible investments as well. I describe how our current accounts deal with these problems, and I argue that existing NIPA data fail to describe the future path of growth in our new economy because they lack output data on financial, human and social capital investments. They fail to show that the United States is consuming its capital stock now and will suffer later, rather like killing the family cow to have a steak dinner.
- Topic:
- Economics, Finance, Economic growth, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- United States
3484. Cross-Border E-Commerce: WTO discussions and multi-stakeholder roles – stocktaking and practical ways forward
- Author:
- Michael Kende1 and Nivedita Sen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- E-commerce has long been recognized as a driver of growth of the digital economy, with the potential to promote economic development. The benefits come from lower transaction costs online, increased efficiency, and access to new markets. The smallest of vendors can join online marketplaces to increase their sales, while larger companies can use the Internet to join global value chains (GVCs), and the largest e-commerce providers are now among the most valuable companies in the world.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Science and Technology, World Trade Organization, Digital Economy, Economic growth, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Switzerland, and Global Focus
3485. The Evolution and Current Status of De Facto Stare Decisis in International Trade and Investment Tribunals: How to Understand the Present by Looking into the Past
- Author:
- Chanya Punyakumpol
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- Is there a doctrine of 'stare decisis' in international trade and international investment law? From a positive law perspective, the answer is a definite no. However, as many scholars have observed, in practice, there has been a strong level of deference from the Appellate Body to its previous rulings, but less so from investment tribunals. Using social network analysis to assess actual citations from the Appellate Body Reports and investment arbitrations from the inception to the current time, this paper examines the evolution and 'status quo' of citation networks in international trade and international investment arbitrations. It asks, not only whether there is a 'de facto' rule of precedent in the two regimes, but also when it occurs and how the development links with the institutional design of dispute settlement. The results show how the doctrine of 'stare decisis' diverges in international trade and international investment, as well as the importance of institutional design in shaping and constraining the behaviors of tribunals.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Law, Finance, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3486. Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment
- Author:
- Ricardo Perez Truglia, Matias Giaccobasso, Guillermo Cruces, Rodrigo Ceni, and Marcelo Bergolo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in collaboration with Uruguay’s tax authority to address this question. We sent letters to 20,440 small- and medium-sized firms that collectively paid more than 200 million dollars in taxes per year. Our letters provided exogenous yet nondeceptive signals about key inputs for their evasion decisions, such as audit probabilities and penalty rates. We measured the effect of these signals on their subsequent perceptions about the auditing process, based on survey data, as well as on the actual taxes paid, based on administrative data. We find that providing information about audits had a significant effect on tax compliance but in a manner that was inconsistent with Allingham and Sandmo (1972). Our findings are consistent with an alternative model, risk-as-feelings, in which messages about audits generate fear and induce probability neglect. According to this model, audits may deter tax evasion in the same way that scarecrows frighten off birds.
- Topic:
- Economics, Global Political Economy, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Argentina, and Global Focus
3487. Construction of an Extended Environmental and Economic Social Accounting Matrix from a Practitioner’s Perspective
- Author:
- Onil Banerjee, Martin Cicowiez, Renato Vargas, and Mark Horridge
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- In 2014, the United Nations published the first International Standard for environmental economic statistics, known as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA).. As more countries adopt and implement the SEEA, the availability of consistent environmental and economic information increases the need for analytical tools that can use this data to respond to policy relevant questions. In this paper, we present a workflow to develop an environmentally extended social accounting matrix, which can serve as the basic database for the development of environmentally-extended computable general equilibrium models. To illustrate, and given its comprehensive implementation of the SEEA, we apply this workflow to the Guatemalan case and the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform.
- Topic:
- Economics, United Nations, Basic Data, Accountability, Economic Policy, and Statistics
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, Guatemala, and Global Focus
3488. Demand-Driven Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence from Mongolia
- Author:
- José Galdo, Bayarmaa Dalkhjavd, Altantsetseg Batchuluun, Soyolmaa Batbekh, and Maria Laura Alzúa
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- Because of its high incidence and potential threat to social cohesion, youth unemployment is a global concern. This study uses a randomized controlled trial to analyze the effectiveness of a demand-driven vocational training program for disadvantaged youth in Mongolia. Mongolia, a transitional country whose economic structure shifted from a communist, centrally planned economy to a free-market economy over a relatively short period, offers a new setting in which to test the effectiveness of standard active labor market policies. This study reports positive and statistically significant short-term effects of vocational training on monthly earnings, skills matching, and self-employment. Substantial heterogeneity emerges as relatively older, richer, and better-educated individuals drive these positive effects. A second intervention that randomly assigns participants to receive repetitive weekly newsletters with information on market returns to vocational training shows positive impacts on the length of exposure to and successful completion of the program. These positive effects, however, are only observed at the intensive margin and do not lead to higher employment or earnings outcomes.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Labor Policies
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia and Asia
3489. Living with the Neighbors: The Effect of Venezuelan Forced Migration on Wages in Colombia
- Author:
- Leonardo Peñaloza Pacheco
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to estimate the causal effect of the migration of Venezuelans to Colombia on the Colombian real wage, since 2016. In the second semester of 2016, the borders between Colombia and Venezuela were reopened after a year of being closed due to a political crisis between the two countries; this re-opening is exploited as an identification strategy. Using data from the Unidad Administrativa Especial de Migraci´on Colombia and the Registro Administrativo de Migrantes Venezolanos in Colombia, it is estimated that the migratory flow of Venezuelans to Colombia increased the Economically Active Population of the border areas of La Guajira and Norte de Santander by approximately 10% and 15%, since its reopening. Differences-in-differences methodology and Synthetic Control Method are implemented and the results show that the increase in labor supply in these regions that resulted from the migratory flow generated a decline in real hourly wages of approximately 6%-9% on average. This decrease in real wages appears to be greater for men as compared to women. There is also evidence of a greater drop in real wages among people with lower levels of qualification and in conditions of informal employment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Employment, and Income Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, and Venezuela
3490. Gender Gaps in Labor Informality: The Motherhood Effect
- Author:
- Mariana Marchionni, María Edo, Dolores de la Mata, Lucila Berniell, and Inés Berniell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- Recent work has quantified the large negative effects of motherhood on female labor market outcomes in Europe and the US. But these results may not apply to developing countries, where labor markets work differently and informality is widespread. In less developed countries, informal jobs, which typically include microenterprises and self-employment, offer more time flexibility but poorer social protection and lower labor earnings. These characteristics affect the availability of key inputs in the technology to raise children, and therefore may affect the interplay between parenthood and labor market outcomes. Through an event-study approach we estimate short and long-run labor market impacts of children in Chile, an OECD developing country with a relatively large informal sector. We find that the birth of the first child has strong and long lasting effects on labor market outcomes of Chilean mothers, while fathers remain unaffected. Becoming a mother implies a sharp decline in mothers’ labor supply, both in the extensive and intensive margins, and in hourly wages. We also show that motherhood affects the occupational structure of employed mothers, as the share of jobs in the informal sector increases remarkably. In order to quantify what the motherhood effect would have been in the absence of an informal labor market, we build a quantitative model economy, that includes an informal sector which offers more flexible working hours at the expense of lower wages and weaker social protection, and a technology to produce child quality that combines time, material resources and the quality of social protection services. We perform a counterfactual experiment that indicates that the existence of the informal sector in Chile helps to reduce the drop in LFP after motherhood in about 35%. We conclude that mothers find in the informal sector the flexibility to cope with both family and labor responsibilities, although at the cost of resigning contributory social protection and reducing their labor market prospects.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Political Economy, and Women
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Chile