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20501. Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Analysis of Public Opinion Surveys on Ratification

Author:
Wonchil Chung
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
There was a lot at stake for the Korean Congress in August 2011, and one of them was the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). Regarding this bill, the two main parties have been pitted against one another. The Grand National Party (GNP) asserts that the FTA bill has at least to be submitted to the Standing Committee; while the Democratic Party (DP) suggests the 10+2 renegotiation proposal (see Appendix 1) for the KORUS FTA that impose restrictions on the arrangement. If the DP's proposal is agreed upon by the National Congress, ratification becomes impossible, since the proposal will allow the negotiation of the FTA, in progress for more than four years (2006 to February 2011), to be taken back to square one. It is true that the KORUS FTA has a lot to offer when it comes to economic aspects, as the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) pointed out in its analysis (see Appendix 2). With that in mind, the GNP risks its political position, as public opinion displays distrust and dissatisfaction over the imbalance between Korea and the United States shown during the progress of the negotiation (see Appendix 3).
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

20502. Weibo and “Iron Curtain 2.0” in China: Who Is Winning the Cat-and-Mouse Game?

Author:
Jongpil Chung
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
At the 2008 Chinese Internet Research Conference, Lokman Tsui, in his paper titled “The Great Firewall as Iron Curtain 2.0,” argued that the Great Firewall metaphor obscures and limits our understanding of Internet censorship in China. The term, combining “great wall” and “firewall,” is used to describe the Chinese government’s efforts to control the Internet while at the same time drawing on the Cold War term “iron curtain.” Yet the phrase “Great Firewall of China” gives outsiders the wrong impression, suggesting that in order to bring freedom of speech to the Chinese people, the wall should be pulled down to enable all good things, such as democracy, from the outside to get in. The reality, however, is much more complicated. The Chinese Internet censorship system that filters or blocks external websites from internal view is only one part of a complex set of mechanisms. The Chinese government also uses cyber police and legal regulations to censor online content, and implements various types of surveillance and punitive actions to bring about self-censorship. Most entities in the private sector in China employ people to read and censor content manually, and can be warned or shut down by the Chinese government if they violate rules of acceptable content. There are also Chinese blogs, emails, social networks, and text messaging services that have opened up new forums for exchanging ideas, and these have created new targets for censorship. Since China has never had mechanisms to accurately detect and reflect public opinion, blogs and BBS (bulletin board system) have become an effective route to form and communicate society’s public opinion. We should not underestimate the extensive consequences that the Internet has brought to every realm of global affairs. The Internet has enhanced the capabilities of traditional actors such as the state and firms, but these technologies have also empowered less privileged groups by providing information and facilitating participation in policy-making procedures. The Internet and other networking technologies have facilitated change in the dynamic between the Beijing regime and the people in China. Who is winning the cat-and-mouse game? I argue that the Internet, more specifically Weibo (微博), the Chinese version of Twitter, and the microblogging system, have strengthened both the government and the people in China. Weibo has more functions than Twitter, such as commenting on others’ posts, turning a message into a conversation, and transmitting photographs and other files with posts. More recently, a great deal of politically sensitive material survives in the Chinese blogosphere provided by blog service providers such as Sina (新浪), Tencent (腾讯), Sohu (搜狐), and so on. The Chinese government is learning to adapt to these new circumstances, and becoming more responsive. Instead of strictly monitoring every posted comment on the Web, the Chinese government is selectively tolerating Internet expression “to provide a safety valve for the release of public anger” and improve its governance. This article is organized into four sections: a debate concerning the political impact of the Internet in the context of Chinese state-society relations; an examination of how Chinese leaders censor the people’s use of the Internet and Weibo, and how their citizens use Weibo to gather information, exchange views, and organize protests and rallies; and a brief conclusion.
Topic:
Cold War, Hegemony, State Violence, and Censorship
Political Geography:
China and Asia

20503. From Preponderance of Power to Balance of Power? South Korea in Search of a New North Korea Policy

Author:
Jihwan Hwang
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The global and East Asian orders of power are now represented by China's economic, military, and diplomatic rise and America's decline. The result is often called Chimerica or G2, leading to U.S.-China competition in every aspect of the international agenda. After the Bush administration's foreign policy in the first years of the millennium, when many scholars and policy makers focused on U.S. unipolarity or at least its preponderance of power after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the current state of affairs is a great change. While U.S.-China relations represent a set of the most important variables in world politics, the meaning of China’s rise is much greater in the East Asian regional order. The Korean Peninsula, of course, cannot escape from the influence of its neighbors. Although the world order of the 1990s saw the unprecedented economic prosperity and overwhelming military power of the United States, the recent order has been characterized by the relative decline of the United States and the fast and strong rise of China. The Chinese economy has grown more than 10 percent per year for the last thirty years and is now the world's second-largest economy. Although the Chinese GDP is still only one-third that of the United States, as TABLE 1 shows, it is not at all unheard of to say that China may economically catch up with the superpower by 2030. Moreover, China's trade with Northeast Asian countries is much larger than that of the United States. As TABLE 2 shows, China's exports and imports with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are almost twice as large when compared with those of the United States. Given America's economic recession and China's incessant growth, the gap between the two is likely to get much larger. China's increasing economic interdependence with regional powers will have a great effect on the changing balance of power in the region, and will have a much greater effect on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China has also made every effort to build up its military capability. Supported by its strong economic growth, Chinese military spending has been hugely increased, more than 10 percent per year on average. China spent 40 billion U.S. dollars in 2001, but it spent 119 billion in 2010, an increase of almost three times in ten years. TABLE 3 indicates that Chinese military spending is still less than one sixth compared to the American figure, but one must recognize that while the United States plans to cut its military spending in the next decade due to its budget deficit, China is certain to keep increasing its, unless its economy falls into deep trouble in the near future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Military Strategy, and GDP
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

20504. Russia’s “Return” to Asia: How Should South Korea Respond?

Author:
Beom-Shik Shin
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On August 24, 2011, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il held a joint summit in Eastern Siberia, the first such meeting between the two countries since 2002. After the summit, many speculated upon the impact this meeting would have upon the current stalemate on the Korean Peninsula over North Korea’s nuclear program. Although some experts viewed Kim Jong-il’s visit to Russia as merely a form of begging bowl diplomacy, such analysis underestimates recent efforts by Russia to engage Northeast Asia. Moreover, the strategic significance of the summit is reflected in the agreement reached between the two leaders which would imply that the summit could be a watershed moment in bringing about new dynamics on the Korean Peninsula and among neighboring countries. Particularly, the proposed Trans-Korea Gas Pipeline Project would have a strong impact on the political geography of Northeast Asia. In November 2011, South Korea and Russia held their own summit in St Petersburg where the Trans-Korea Gas Pipeline project was reconfirmed. Moscow even expressed its willingness to build the pipeline, passing through North Korea, at its own expense. Such a very active participation from Russia though could provoke certain competition with China in the region. The future course of this project is expected to be decided during the negotiation process between Russia’s Gazprom and South Korea’s KOGAS. Yet in South Korea, domestically, this issue of building a gas pipeline could be controversial in many ways. There are concerns regarding security matters related to North Korea as well as a lack of trust in Russia. At the same time, the responses from the United States and China must be taken into account. As 2012 is the year of leadership change for many countries in the region, it is also possible that the project will become unnecessarily politicized and eventually jeopardized. Therefore, South Korea should carefully prepare an action plan for realizing this project in order to take advantage of this opportunity amid changing dynamics in the region. In recent years there has been much talk of the United States “returning” to Asia, but Russia is also making its own return. This gas pipeline project shows how Russia intends to use its vast energy resources to facilitate its ambition to play a new role in Northeast Asia. This Issue Briefing addresses the impact of Russia’s reengagement and how South Korea should respond by considering both the positive and negative effects.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and South Korea

20505. After the Busan Forum: Transformation of the International Development Aid Regime

Author:
Taekyoon Kim
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (HLF-4) was held in Busan, South Korea from November 29 to December 1, 2011. This forum was the last of the four High Level Forums which were arranged to enhance the effectiveness of foreign aid from major donor countries led by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-Development Assistance Group (OECD-DAC). Following the first HLF, the 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness which contains specific action plans was endorsed at the second HLF. Then in 2008, the international development aid regime was finally institutionalized with the third HLF in Accra. The fourth HLF in Busan was expected to evaluate the progress made by the previous forums and to seek a comprehensive expansion of the existing international “aid” regime into a new international “development” regime. Considering that the deadline for the UN Millennium Development Goals is 2015, the Busan HLF-4 held particular significance as a rearrangement of international governance on aid effectiveness. Moreover, the Busan Forum was also a testing ground for South Korea’s soft power diplomacy which was related to the “development issues” that Seoul, during its presidency of the G20 in 2010, presented as a scheme to reduce the gap between developed and developing countries. In this context, it is important to evaluate the significance of Busan HLF-4 from the following three perspectives. Firstly, the agenda promoted most vigorously by the Busan Forum was to undertake a paradigm shift in development aid. This shift from “aid effectiveness” to “development effectiveness” encourages a multi-dimensional change in the international development aid regime. The shift reflects the international society’s efforts to desist from the conventional method of aid provision centered only on traditional donors, and to extensively and comprehensively embrace more development issues as well as a wider variety of aid providers as part of a more long-term development plan. This new concept of “development effectiveness” can also be found in the draft of the Busan Outcome Document (BOD) that was published after four successive meetings of the OECD-DAC “aid effectiveness” work team. However, if the sprawling concept of “development effectiveness” is not refined with apt and concrete principles, the Busan HLF-4 runs the risk of merely reiterating the five pillars of the Paris Declaration. Secondly, the forum was an attempt to integrate and restore the governance function of the international aid regime which is divided between the OECD-DAC-centered body of donors and the Non-OECD-DAC Donors (NODDs) that are pursuing an independent path. The so-called South-South Cooperation, consisting of NODDs such as China, India, and Brazil is widely welcomed by fragile states in Africa and East Asia for their focus on constructing infrastructure and prioritizing mutual respect and equality. This can however, disrupt the established international aid framework. The debate on aid effectiveness in 2010 predominated by the Paris Declaration regime was very much confined to the standard model of aid provision centered on DAC and its member states. Therefore, making the participation of emerging donors in the aid effectiveness commitments compulsory was a task of utmost significance at the Busan HLF-4. The involvement of the leading NODDs such as China in the Busan Forum elicited tentative hopes for an expansion of the international aid regime, and the proposition of traditional donors for South-South-North Triangular Cooperation during the forum also succeeded in expanding the point of compromise. Thirdly, another distinctive feature of the Busan HLF-4 was that it took place under the slogan of “Inclusive Partnership,” pursuing change that encourages the participation of diverse actors in the field of international development at the forum. This stood in contrast to previous forums where only the traditional donors of OECD-DAC were invited. For example, at the HLF-1 in Rome and the HLF-2 in Paris, only OECD-DAC member states, major multilateral organizations, and some partner recipient countries were invited to the forums. Civil Society Organizations (CSO) only came to be recognized as independent partners in the field of development assistance at the HLF-3 in Accra, but their proposals were still not reflected in the forum’s outcome to any substantial degree owing to the perfunctory level of their participation. The Busan HLF-4, however, embraced a much more extensive range of participants from the NODDs to civil sector participants such as CSOs and multinational corporations. This broader participation was possible because South Korea itself has experienced a successful transition from a recipient country to a donor country. With this background, South Korea could bridge the gap between recipients group and donors group. Moreover, CSOs led by Better Aid, a global organization for development cooperation, organized the “Open Forum for CSO Development Effectiveness” in the run-up to the Busan Forum. The CSOs strived to apply their policies on human rights, gender equality, and creation of healthy jobs to the Busan Outcome Document (BOD). Whether the inclusion of a diverse range of participants can bear substantive results depends on how well the demands of these actors can be reflected and translated into effective policies in the final draft of the BOD.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20506. Friend not Foe: Opening Spaces for Civil Society Engagement to Prevent Violent Extremism

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, Linda Gerber-Stellingwerf, George A. Lopez, Eliot Fackler, and Joshua Weaver
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
One of the less known aspects of the tragic 9/11 events and the subsequent global war on terror is the chilling impact counterterrorism measures have had on civil society and citizens’ agency. Ten years later the phrase ‘war on terror’ is no longer used officially, but measures that curtail the operational and political freedoms of civic organizations worldwide in the name of countering terrorism continue to be real, tangible, and strongly counterproductive.The report by David Cortright et al, Friend not Foe: Opening Spaces for Civil Society Engagement to Prevent Violent Extremism, gives a comprehensive and vivid account of the challenges that civil society groups continue to face worldwide in protecting and expanding their political voice and operational space. The first edition of this report focused primarily on the e8ects of counterterrorism measures on civil society in the Global South. This updated version places the closing of civil society space in a wider global context of securitization of aid, de-funding of civil society, and civil military cooperation. It gives a crystal clear account of the persistent shift in international cooperation policy from sustainable development as an intrinsic public good to development as an instrument for national and geopolitical security and economic goals.
Topic:
Civil Society, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20507. Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The economic crisis has caused millions of migrant labourers from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to lose their jobs in the boom economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. Remittances that kept their relatives afloat have plummeted and many migrants have returned home to certain destitution, putting weak Central Asian governments under severe strain. In Tajikistan half the labour force is without work, while Kyrgyzstan suffers from massive rural unemployment. Before the crisis hit, up to five million people from these countries left home for Russia and Kazakhstan to take on poorly paid and unskilled jobs, often the unpleasant tasks that local people no longer wished to do. Yet at home they were viewed with respect: the most daring members of their society, who were willing to take a jump into the unknown to pull themselves and their families out of poverty. Remittances also boosted their home countries' economic data, allowing governments with little ability or interest in creating jobs to claim a modest degree of success. By 2008 remittances were providing the equivalent of half Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP), a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's GDP, and an eighth of Uzbekistan's.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

20508. Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia

Author:
Oeindrila Dube and Suresh Naidu
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Does foreign military assistance strengthen or further weaken fragile states facing internal conflict? We address this question by estimating how U.S. military aid affects violence and electoral participation in Colombia. We exploit the allocation of U.S. military aid to Colombian military bases, and compare how aid affects municipalities with and without bases. Using detailed political violence data, we find that U.S. military aid leads to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries (who collude with the military), but has no effect on guerilla attacks. Aid increases also result in more paramilitary (but not guerrilla) homicides during election years. Moreover, when military aid rises, voter turnout falls more in base municipalities, especially those that are politically contested.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

20509. Security Sector Reform: A Case Study Approach to Transition and Capacity Building

Author:
Sarah Meharg and Aleisha Arnusch
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Failing and failed states are not able to provide equitable safety, security, and justice to their people through the traditional state mechanisms of police, judiciary, courts, and penitentiaries. In such situations, state mechanisms are ineffective, predatory, or absent. Security sector reform, commonly referred to as SSR, emerged as an activity in the 1990s in recognition of the changing international security environment and the limitations of reform approaches among interveners working in failing and failed states. SSR is a relatively new discipline in the context of peace and stability operations, whether these operations are United Nations (UN)-led or otherwise managed and supported. The coherence of strategies is improving, but the 1990s and 2000s have been witness to unsustainable and inconsistent security sector reforms in places like Kosovo, Liberia, and Haiti, among others. As time passes, the meta-narratives of legitimacy, accountability, efficiency, and effectiveness influence SSR activities within the international community of states involved with such reforms.
Topic:
Security, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
Kosovo, United Nations, and Liberia

20510. "Dreams Don't Come True in Eritrea": Anomie and Family Disintegration due to the Structural Militarization of Society

Author:
Nicole Hirt
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes contemporary Eritrea's acute crisis within the framework of the theory of anomie. It is based on the hypothesis that militarization, forced labor, mass exodus, and family disintegration can be interpreted as the consequences of two incompatible norm and value systems: the collectivist, nationalistic, and militaristic worldview of the former liberation front and ruling party People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), and the traditional cultural system of Eritrea's society. In 2002 the regime introduced an unlimited "development campaign," thereby forcing large parts of the society to live as conscripts and perform unpaid labor. This has caused a mass exodus of young people and a rapid process of family disintegration. The article is based on empirical fieldwork and evaluates the ongoing developments, which have led to rapid economic decline and the destabilization of the entire fabric of society.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Migration, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Eritrea