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20101. A Generalized Fact and Model of Long-Run Economic Growth: Kaldor Fact as a Special Case

Author:
Daniel Danxia Xie
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between economic growth and labor's share in national income, based on a comprehensive panel data set for 123 countries from 1950 to 2004. Xie's primary finding is that labor's share follows a cubic relationship with real GDP per capita over the long process of development. At the beginning of the modern economic growth process, the share of labor in national income first decreases until an initial threshold is reached. After that, labor's share keeps increasing until the country's GDP per capita reaches a second threshold before falling again. Xie argues that these dynamics apply not only to the less developed countries in the postwar years, but also to the advanced countries like the United States and the United Kingdom during their early economic take-offs, starting in the late 18th and 19th century, respectively. Finally, he proposes a two-sector constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type growth model and simulate the model to replicate and explain the possible mechanism behind such a nonlinear pattern of movements in labor's share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

20102. Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Crisis

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Lauge Skovgaard Poulsen
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper compares the current foreign direct investment (FDI) recession with FDI responses to past economic crises. The authors find that although developed country outflows have taken an equally big hit as major developed countries have after past crises, outflows seem to be bouncing back more slowly this time. By contrast with the overall decline in recent years, inflows to emerging markets often remained stable during their past economic crises. Both patterns indicate that the global scale of the current crisis has led to a greater FDI response than after individual country crises in the past. Compared with global economic downturns since the 1970s, the current FDI recession has also been greater in magnitude. The exception is the FDI plunge in the early 2000s, despite the much smaller economic crisis at the time. The authors conclude by recommending that policymakers not just further liberalize FDI regimes—as they find was the typical pattern during earlier crises—but rather use the downturn to rethink their FDI policies with an enhanced focus on "sustainable FDI" promotion.
Topic:
Globalization, Global Recession, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis

20103. Too Big to Fail: The Transatlantic Debate

Author:
Morris Goldstein and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Although the United States and the European Union were both seriously impacted by the financial crisis of 2007, resulting policy debates and regulatory responses have differed considerably on the two sides of the Atlantic. In this paper the authors examine the debates on the problem posed by "too big to fail" financial institutions. They identify variations in historical experiences, financial system structures, and political institutions that help one understand the differences of approaches between the United States, EU member states, and the EU institutions in addressing this problem. The authors then turn to possible remedies and how they may be differentially implemented in America and Europe. They conclude on which policy developments are likely in the near future.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

20104. Current Account Imbalances Coming Back

Author:
Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper finds statistically robust and economically important effects of fiscal policy, external financial policy, net foreign assets, and oil prices on current account balances. The statistical model builds upon and improves previous explanations of current account balances in the academic literature. A key advance is that the model captures the effect of external financial policies, including exchange rate policies, through data on net official financial flows. Based on current and expected future policies, current account imbalances in major G-20 economies are likely to widen much more in the next five years than projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This paper concludes with a discussion of appropriate policies to prevent widening imbalances.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy

20105. Security Policies of India, Brazil and South Africa – Regional Security Contexts as Constraints for a Common Agenda

Author:
Daniel Flemes and Alcides Costa Vaz
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the course of the last decade, the IBSA states (India, Brazil, South Africa) have increased their weight in the shifting global order, particularly in economic affairs. Can the same be said about the IBSA states' position in the international security hierarchy? After locating the IBSA coalition in the shifting world order, we analyze its member states' willingness and capacity to coordinate their security policies and build a common global security agenda. In addition, we explore the state of and perspectives on bi- and trilateral collaboration initiatives on defense and armaments between India, Brazil and South Africa. A key reason for the mostly modest results of global security agenda coordination and cross-regional defense collaboration is that the prevailing security concerns of each country are located at the regional level. Therefore, the starting point of an assessment of the prospects of IBSA's security cooperation and its potential impact on the strategic global landscape has to be a comparative evaluation of the regional security environments, focusing on overlaps and potential synergies between the national security policies of the three state actors.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, India, and Brazil

20106. Investing in Science and Technology to Meet Africa's Maritime Security Challenges

Author:
Augustus Vogel
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The African maritime security challenge is defined by the need to monitor wide geographic expanses with limited resources. Science and technology are invaluable maritime security force multipliers. Investment in “technology” without support for “science” is unsustainable. Complementary investments in African research institutions are needed to create collaborative “anchors” to sustain the effectiveness of maritime security efforts.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Science and Technology, Maritime Commerce, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Caribbean, and Nigeria

20107. Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif's weak leadership. So far, every effort to make the administration modestly functional has come unstuck. The new leaner cabinet looks impressive on paper but, given divisive politics and the short timeframe, is unlikely to deliver significant progress on key transitional objectives, such as stabilising Somalia and delivering a permanent constitution before August 2011, when the TFG's official mandate ends. Although the Transitional Federal Parliament unilaterally has awarded itself a further three-year-extension, urgent attention needs to be given to the government's structural flaws that stymie peacebuilding in central and south Somalia. If the TFG does not make serious progress on correcting its deficiencies by August, the international community should concentrate its support on the more effective local entities, until a more appropriate and effective national government is negotiated.
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

20108. Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? – Findings from a New Database on Religion, Violence and Peace in Sub – Saharan Africa, 1990 to 2008

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the religious diversity in sub–Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, social science research has inadequately addressed the question of how and to what extent religion matters for conflict in Africa. This paper presents an innovative data inventory on religion and violent conflict in all sub–Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008 that seeks to contribute to filling the gap. The data underscore that religion has to be accounted for in conflict in Africa. Moreover, results show the multidimensionality (e.g. armed conflicts with religious incompatibilities, several forms of non‐state religious violence) and ambivalence (inter‐religious networks, religious peace initiatives) of religion vis–à–vis violence. In 22 of the 48 sub–Saharan countries, religion plays a substantial role in violence, and six countries in particular—Chad, Congo‐Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda— are heavily affected by different religious aspects of violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa

20109. Nigeria's Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The April 2011 general elections – if credible and peaceful – would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democratic trajectory. Anything similar to the 2007 sham, however, could deepen the vulnerability of West Africa's largest country to conflict, further alienate citizens from the political elite and reinforce violent groups' narratives of bad governance and exclusion. Flawed polls, especially if politicians stoke ethnic or religious divides, may ignite already straining fault lines, as losers protest results. Despite encouraging electoral preparations, serious obstacles remain. Many politicians still seem determined to use violence, bribery or rigging to win the spoils of office. In the remaining weeks, national institutions, led by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), should redouble efforts to secure the poll's integrity, tackle impunity for electoral crimes, increase transparency and bolster safeguards, including by publicising results polling station by polling station and rejecting bogus returns.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

20110. The absence of non-western IR theory in Asia reconsidered

Author:
Ching-Chang Chen
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
This paper critically examines an ongoing debate in International Relations (IR) as to why there is apparently no non-Western IR theory in Asia and what should be done to 'mitigate' that situation. Its central contention is that simply calling for greater incorporation of ideas from the non-West and contributions by non-Western scholars from local 'vantage points' does not make IR more global or democratic, for that would do little to transform the discipline's Eurocentric epistemological foundations. Re-envisioning IR in Asia is not about discovering or producing as many 'indigenous' national schools of IR as possible, but about reorienting IR itself towards a post-Western era that does not reinforce the hegemony of the West within (and without) the discipline. Otherwise, even if local scholars could succeed in crafting a 'Chinese (or Indian, Japanese, Korean, etc.) School', it would be no more than constructing a 'derivative discourse' of Western modernist social science.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, and Korea