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19191. Global Outlook: Dangerous Times

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The global economic outlook has worsened significantly. The latest data point to a slowdown in economic activity in the spring and summer. Our baseline forecast sees world GDP rising by 2.8% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012 (at market exchange rates). There are significant risks to global growth coming from three different fronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis, ii) the possibility that the US falls back into recession, and iii) a hard landing in the emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

19192. Eurozone finally agrees a deal but uncertainties remain unresolved

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
After protracted negotiations, Eurozone leaders finally agreed on a new package of measures last week. The outline deal has a three-pronged approach aimed at tackling the main aspects of the crisis: reducing Greece's debt burden, avoiding a credit crunch by recapitalising European banks, and preventing contagion to other countries via a boost to the EFSF.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

19193. Fostering Growth and Development in Small States through Disruptive Change: A Case Study of the Caribbean

Author:
Avinash D. Persaud
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The desks of civil servants in small states are stacked with yellowing consultancy reports from multilateral agencies on the need to generate sustainable jobs and growth, attract investment, bolster infrastructure and institutions, and improve the efficiency and reduce the expense of government. The real question is not what, but why? Why, in spite of everything we know, are many small states, especially those in the Caribbean, trapped in a zone of low growth, stagnation or relative decline? Policy makers face physical and financial constraints and implementation deficiencies, but the overriding constraint, even more so than in other countries, is political economy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Caribbean

19194. Watching While the Frog Boils: Strategic Folly in the Afghan Security Sector

Author:
Christian Dennys
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
International approaches to the Afghan security sector over the last nine years have exhibited the tendencies of security sector reform (SSR), counterinsurgency (COIN) and stabilization, and exposed the inherent tensions between them. This paper argues that while an SSR, COIN or stabilization approach may have been appropriate at the beginning of the post-Taliban period or currently, actual practice has been to attempt all three simultaneously. This leads to confusion, and the combined approaches tend to undermine one another as they attempt to address the security issues facing Afghanistan. The paper concludes that, ultimately, the lack of strategic direction and focus in the international intervention — as demonstrated by the evolution of United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions, the plethora of international missions and interventions in the security sector, and the realities on the ground — has served both Afghanistan and its international partners poorly
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

19195. CIGI'11 - An Unfinished House: Filling the Gaps in Global Goverenance

Author:
Paul Heinbecker, Barry Carin, David Runnalls, and Paul Jenkins
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
CIGI has been building a network of former and serving officials from foreign ministries, central banks, finance departments and international organizations, and with researchers at prestigious think tanks and universities from around the world. The defining objective of the network of individuals, working in independent institutions, is the cooperative development of innovative proposals for global governance to support the policy development work of the G20. The CIGI conference "An Unfinished House: Filling the Gaps in International Governance" is the initial stage in this CIGI-led G20 think tank network's cooperative effort. The background paper for the conference provides a useful collection of facts and observations about the universe of global governance arrangements. It offers a preliminary description of the critical gaps and inadequacies - to assist in thinking about the principal dilemmas and research priorities.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Governance

19196. Military Justice and Impunity in Mexico's Drug War

Author:
Kristin Bricker
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Mexican President Felipe Calderón's military deployment to combat the country's war on drugs has been strongly criticized by international human rights groups. During Calderón's administration, over 47,337 people have been killed and thousands of human rights complaints have been filed against the military. The Inter- American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) has issued several binding rulings that obligate Mexico to strip the military of its jurisdiction to investigate and try soldiers accused of violating civilians' human rights. On July 12, 2011, Mexico's Supreme Court ruled that Congress must reform the Code of Military Justice so that human rights abuse cases always fall under civilian jurisdiction.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

19197. Herbert Hoover: Father of the New Deal

Author:
Steven Horwitz
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Politicians and pundits portray Herbert Hoover as a defender of laissez faire governance whose dogmatic commitment to small government led him to stand by and do nothing while the economy collapsed in the wake of the stock market crash in 1929. In fact, Hoover had long been a critic of laissez faire. As president, he doubled federal spending in real terms in four years. He also used government to prop up wages, restricted immigration, signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, raised taxes, and created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation-all interventionist measures and not laissez faire. Unlike many Democrats today, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's advisers knew that Hoover had started the New Deal. One of them wrote, "When we all burst into Washington ... we found every essential idea [of the New Deal] enacted in the 100-day Congress in the Hoover administration itself."
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

19198. Publication Practices for Transparent Government

Author:
Jim Harper
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Government transparency is a widely agreed upon goal, but progress on achieving it has been very limited. Transparency promises from political leaders such as President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner have not produced a burst of information that informs stronger public oversight of government. One reason for this is the absence of specifically prescribed data practices that will foster transparency.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, Communications, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

19199. Social Security's Financial Outlook and Reforms: An Independent Evaluation

Author:
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Social Security is often described as a "foundational" element of the nation's social safety net. Almost all Americans are directly affected by the program and many millions primarily depend on its benefits for supporting themselves during retirement. But the program's financial condition has worsened considerably since the last recession, which began in 2007. In that year, the Social Security trustees estimated that the program's trust fund would be exhausted by 2042. The trustees' annual report for 2011 brings the trust fund exhaustion date forward to 2038. Indeed, the programs revenues fell short of its benefit expenditures in 2010 and it appears unlikely that significant surpluses will emerge again under the program's current rules. If the program's finances continue to worsen at this rate, it won't be long before the debate on reforming the program assumes an urgency and intensity similar to that during 1982-83, when imminent insolvency forced lawmakers to implement payroll tax increases and scale back its benefits.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
America and Ethiopia

19200. Insights from Bin Ladin's Audiocassette Library in Kandahar

Author:
Flagg Miller
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
As the world waits for the declassification of documents from Usama bin Ladin's Abbottabad residence in Pakistan, an earlier archive shedding valuable light on al-Qa`ida's formation under Bin Ladin is slowly being released. Acquired by the Cable News Network in early 2002 from Bin Ladin's Kandahar compound, more than 1,500 audiocassettes are being made available to public researchers by Yale University.Dating from the late 1960s through 2000, the vast majority of tapes in this collection are in Arabic and feature lectures, sermons and conversations among more than 200 speakers from across the Islamic world. At least 22 recordings feature Bin Ladin himself, only one of which has been published to date.After the tapes were reviewed by U.S. intelligence agencies shortly after their acquisition, the collection was sold to the Williams College Afghan Media Project run by American anthropologist David Edwards. This author began cataloguing and archiving the collection in 2003, as soon as the tapes arrived at the college, and is currently writing a book about the figuration of Bin Ladin's leadership and al-Qa`ida through the archive. The initial results of the findings are presented in this article.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Arabia