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1881. Foreign and Security Policy in the New Malaysia

Author:
Elina Noor
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Malaysia’s foreign and security policy faces myriad challenges, but not much is likely to change under Mahathir Mohamad’s ‘New Malaysia’ framework. The return of Mahathir Mohamad to the prime ministership of the country he had previously led for 22 years has raised questions about the direction Malaysia’s foreign and security policy might take. While there may be some course-corrections in foreign and security policy under Mahathir’s Pakatan Harapan government, it will not stray far from the approach of previous administrations. Continuities will include its non-aligned status, its pragmatic dealings with both the United States and China, its focus on ASEAN centrality and Malaysia’s economic development through trade. Malaysia will revisit its earlier “Look East” policy; it has plans to upgrade its defence capabilities in the South China Sea; and it will take a more consultative approach to foreign policy-making.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia

1882. Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road and Debt Diplomacy in the Pacific

Author:
Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet. China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries. There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules. Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

1883. The Bougainville Referendum and Beyond

Author:
Ben Bohane
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As Bougainville prepares for a referendum on independence, Australia must navigate a policy response that acknowledges the history of conflict and colonialism there, Bougainville nationalism, PNG sensitivities, the principles of the guiding Bougainville Peace Agreement and new geostrategic realities to help forge a lasting solution. Bougainville is largely ‘referendum ready’ and its people are expected to vote overwhelmingly for independence in the November referendum. While Bougainville has abundant natural resources and a skilled older generation, as an independent nation it would face many challenges including fiscal self-reliance, consensus on mining issues, unity and political integrity. Australia has a significant stake in the outcome and should step up its engagement to remain a trusted peace and security broker in Melanesia. It should not oppose Bougainville’s independence if that is the result under the referendum and peace process, and should take a leading role in ensuring a peaceful resolution between the parties.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Colonialism, Conflict, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, and Melanesia

1884. Once More With Feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The rise of Asia is the central challenge of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, calling into question long-standing assumptions about Russia’s place in the world. Moscow is now more committed to engagement with the Asia-Pacific than it has ever been. This reflects belated recognition of the region’s critical importance in global affairs. Russia’s ambition to become a major player in the Asia-Pacific faces considerable hurdles. Overcoming them will depend on larger changes in its foreign policy mindset — an uncertain prospect at best.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia-Pacific

1885. Behind the Veil: Women in Jihad After the Caliphate

Author:
Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Women will be important to the resurgence and transformation of the Islamic State from governance project to global terrorist insurgency. Islamic State has expanded both the potential and the scope of the roles and functions women can play, providing additional avenues for their participation in jihad in both kinetic and non-kinetic roles. The cohort of former caliphate members of mostly women and children now held in camps pose a key challenge for counterterrorism efforts around the world. Assumptions about women and violence can obstruct an accurate assessment of the threat female IS supporters pose and an accurate understanding of their agency.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Australia, and Syria

1886. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

1887. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

1888. Politics in Indonesia: Resilient Elections, Defective Democracy

Author:
Ben Bland
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
he pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency. Incumbent President Joko Widodo is the front-runner to defeat long-time rival Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election on 17 April. Constrained by compromises and knocked off balance by the rise of identity politics, if Jokowi wins a second (and final) term, he is unlikely to make significant progress on much-needed economic, legal, and political reforms. Despite these concerns, there is hope for the future with a new generation of politicians from outside the elite now seeking to follow Jokowi’s path to national office. Indonesia’s future will depend on how far they use their electoral mandates to shake up a defective system.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

1889. 'New' Malaysia: Four Key Challenges in the Near Term

Author:
James Chin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Malaysia’s momentous regime change, the new government faces a number of challenges to implementing wholesale political reform. Malaysia’s new government will need to deal with several key issues in the next 12 months to establish itself as a ‘change and reform’ administration, namely the Malay/Bumiputra Agenda, the 1963 Malaysia Agreement (MA63), political Islam, and a clear timetable for transition of power. Each of these issues is crucial to Malaysia’s political stability in the near term and to laying the foundation for long-term institutional reforms. If these reforms are not handled properly, the new Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) administration under Mahathir may be a one-term government and the country could easily revert to the old regime.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Regime Change, Reform, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia-Pacific

1890. Rethinking Fiscal Policy: Progressive US Politics Meets Radical Economics

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Recognition of the need for greater government intervention in the economy is increasingly shaping the US political debate, with this shift paralleled among prominent economists. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign has emboldened Democratic presidential hopefuls to advocate bold platforms involving larger government. Coincidentally, some prominent economists are advocating greater government expenditure to address ‘secular stagnation’. This is unlikely to result in a radical shift away from the post-Reagan small-government policies, but the centre of gravity has shifted towards recognising a role for more government intervention.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America