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18851. What Does the Arab Spring Mean for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus?

Author:
Aigerim Zikibayeva
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The demonstrations that were sparked by Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation in protest of police corruption in Tunisia in December 2010 spread a contagion of revolutions across North Africa and the Middle East. The revolutionary spirit that spread to the neighboring countries of Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco, and Jordan, has raised the question of a possible spillover in other regions of the world. The long-term instability in Eurasia as a whole, in Central Asia and the Caucasus in particular, has caused serious concerns about the possibility of rising radical Islamic threats in these regions, as well as the possibility of similar revolutions against the existing regimes. Perceptions and responses to these events in Russia and the United States also bear impact on the "reset" policy between the two nations.
Topic:
Armed Struggle and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, and Arabia

18852. When Good Metaphors Go Bad: The Metaphoric "Branding" of Cyberspace

Author:
Adriane Lapointe
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Current cybersecurity discussions rely heavily on imaginative metaphors, models, and related rhetorical devices which initially provide insight into the challenges we face in cyberspace, but too often end up as empty labels or catch phrases used by different people to mean different things. When metaphors begin to function in this way, they can become an impediment to meaningful discussion rather than a vehicle for creative thought. This paper looks at how some of the most common cyber metaphors currently shape our discourse, considering the extent to which they do or don't contribute to a clearer vision of our way ahead, and why.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Political Theory

18853. Russian Soft Power in the 21st Century: An Examination of Russian Compatriot Policy in Estonia

Author:
Theodore P. Gerber and Heather A. Conley
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This study examines the current state of relations among Russia, Estonia, and ethnic Russians living in Estonia. The report pays special attention to the Russian Compatriot Policy, which seeks to codify the relationship of the Russian diaspora to its homeland, and to evaluate its effectiveness as a soft power foreign policy tool in Estonia. Analysis of this policy, as well as an understanding of Estonian domestic policies toward and relationships with the Russian minority within the country, has been conducted based on the results of a comprehensive survey conducted by CSIS in 2009 and 2010. The survey data were generated through interviews with over 3,000 individuals between the ages of 16 and 29, including equal numbers of Russians living in Russia, native Estonians living in Estonia, and ethnic Russians living in Estonia. This research not only helps shed light on the current state of affairs for the Russian minority in Estonia, but also gives clues as to where the situation is heading.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diaspora, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Estonia

18854. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Author:
William Thornberry and Jaclyn Levy
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) emerged from a decades-long militant Islamist tradition in Algeria. In 1998, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat, or GSPC) broke away from the Armed Islamic Group (Groupe Islamique Armé, or GIA) because of the GIA's extensive targeting of civilians. Gradually, the GSPC evolved to encompass global jihadist ideology in addition to its historical focus on overturning the Algerian state. In 2006, the GSPC officially affiliated with al Qaeda core, soon rebranding itself as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. In the following years, AQIM was able to conduct a small number of large-scale attacks, most notably its 2007 bombing of the UN headquarters in Algiers. In recent years, counterterrorism pressure and weak governance have combined to shift the center of AQIM's presence to the Sahara-Sahel region. AQIM continues to make its presence known through smuggling operations, kidnappings, and clashes with security forces in the desert. In the coming years, general instability within the region could allow AQIM to further expand its influence.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa

18855. Legislating a Rule for Monetary Policy

Author:
John B. Taylor
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In these remarks I discuss a proposal to legislate a rule for monetary policy. The proposal modernizes laws first passed in the late 1970s, but largely discarded in 2000.
Topic:
Monetary Policy

18856. A Dangerous Brew for Monetary Policy

Author:
Charles I. Plosser
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to join you at Cato's 28th Annual Monetary Conference. In preparing today's remarks, I noted that this year's topic of how monetary policy should deal with asset prices was also discussed here in 2008. The speakers at that time expressed a wide variety of views and opinions. The fact that this important question continues to resurface here and at other prominent meetings in recent years suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge.
Topic:
Monetary Policy

18857. Limits of Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice

Author:
Vincent R. Reinhart and Carmen M. Reinhart
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy casts a spell over market participants, commentators, and academics. The pages of financial newspapers parse subtle differences among the comments of Fed officials and delve deeply into potentially multiple meanings of official statements. Academic discussions argue that the path of the policy rate may (as in Taylor 2009) or may not (as in Bernanke 2010, and Greenspan 2010) have fueled a home-price bubble in the United States.
Topic:
Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

18858. The Revived Bretton Woods System, Liquidity Creation, and Asset Price Bubbles

Author:
Harris Dellas and George S. Tavlas
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In this article, we argue that the present constellation of exchange rate arrangements among the major currencies has led to the creation of excessive global liquidity, which has contributed to asset price bubbles. Although the exchange rates of many of the major currencies—including the U.S. dollar, the euro, the yen, and the pound sterling—float against each other, the currencies of many Asian emerging market economies and oil-exporting economies are pegged to the dollar. Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (2004a) labeled this system “Bretton Woods II” (BWII). The original Bretton Woods regime (BWI) lasted for about a quarter of a century. Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (DFG) argue that the present regime, despite its large global imbalances, will also be sustainable.
Topic:
Oil
Political Geography:
United States

18859. A Gold Standard with Free Banking Would Have Restrained the Boom and Bust

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
President George W. Bush famously remarked in July 2008 that during the housing boom “Wall Street got drunk . . . and now it has a hangover.” It was the Federal Reserve that spiked the punchbowl. The Fed sowed the seeds for the bust of 2007–08 by overexpanding credit, keeping interest rates too low for too long. The Fed made these mistakes despite our having been assured that it had learned from past errors and that the art of central banking had been all but perfected. A commodity standard with free banking, and no central bank to distort the financial system, would have avoided such a boom-and-bust credit cycle.

18860. U.S. Decapitalization, Easy Money, and Asset Price Cycles

Author:
Kevin Dowd and Martin Hutchinson
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In Matthew 25: 14–30, Jesus recounts the Parable of the Talents, the story of how the master goes away and leaves each of three servants with sums of money to look after in his absence. He then returns and holds them to account. The first two have invested wisely and give the master a good return, and he rewards them. The third, however, is a wicked servant who couldn't be bothered even to put the money in the bank where it could earn interest. Instead, he simply buried the money and gave his master a zero return. He is punished and thrown into the darkness where there is weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Political Geography:
United States