Search

18741. The Political Feasibility of the Istanbul Canal Project

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Popularly referred to as the “crazy” project, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Istanbul Canal Project has been debated vigorously since its proposal prior to the 2011 elections in the country. While some questioned its economic and ecological feasibility, others carried the discussion towards the Project's political implications. In addition to evaluating these debates, in this policy brief we discuss the Project through a historical perspective that includes the dynamics of the 1936 Montreux Convention. We argue that the feasibility of the Canal Project is valid only after certain changes are made in the application of the Montreux Convention. However, we conclude that this may lead to an outcome in which the signatories would question the legitimacy of the Convention under present conditions.
Topic:
Economics and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkey

18742. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece

18743. Where Do We Stand in the Field of Nuclear Disarmament: What Is Next After the New START

Author:
Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement, without any doubt, has started a new debate on whether the international community has finally entered a renaissance in the field of disarmament after a long period of stalemate. In this regard, the New START agreement, together with the New York Nuclear Safety Summit of 2010 and the NPT Review Conference of 2010, seems to be creating a rather positive atmosphere. Yet, if one examines the discussions that took place at the US and the Russian parliament's before and after the ratification of the New START, he/she will come to the conclusion that the progress on nuclear disarmament, at the levels of both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, will not be an easy one. The situation will remain unchanged unless certain contentious military issues between Washington and Moscow are somehow resolved. In this regard, the next round of the New START agreement will be crucial. This situation will not only affect the future of the US and the Russian militaries' relationships to one another, but it will also change the balance of relations among the nuclear “haves” and “have nots” of the NPT Treaty. It is, therefore, expected that the NPT's two tracks, namely disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation, will be affected either in a positive or negative way in the future, depending on the evolution of the post New START era. Within this perspective, the possibility that US and Russia will implement new disarmament agreements has gained utmost importance in the aftermath of the New START for the future implications of the US President Barack Obama's “Global Zero Policy.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and New York

18744. Ethics and the Economist: What Climate Change Demands of Us

Author:
J. A. Nelson
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Climate change is changing not only our physical world, but also our intellectual, social, and moral worlds. We are realizing that our situation is profoundly unsafe, interdependent, and uncertain. What, then, does climate change demand of us, as human beings and as economists? A discipline of economics based on Enlightenment notions of mechanism and disembodied rationality is not suited to present problems. This essay suggests three major requirements: first, that we take action; second, that we work together; and third, that we focus on avoiding the worst, rather than obtaining the optimal. The essay concludes with suggestions of specific steps that economists can take as researchers, teachers, and in our other roles.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Political Theory

18745. Investment Treaty Arbitration and Developing Countries: A Re-Appraisal

Author:
Kevin P. Gallagher and Elen Shrestha
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
There is an ongoing debate about bilateral investment treaties (BITs) – and investor-state arbitration, in particular – between those who maintain that BITs encourage investment in developing countries by providing enforceable rights and protections for investors, and There is an ongoing debate about bilateral investment treaties (BITs) – and investor - state arbitration, in particular – between those who maintain that BITs encourage investment in developing countries by providing enforceable rights and protections for investors, and those who suspect that these new rights and protections have a chilling effect on regulation for public and environmental welfare and actually hinder development. For years, both ―camps‖ have drawn heavily upon anecdotal evidence and observations to support their view, as no systematic, comprehensive study of empirical data on investment arbitrations had been undertaken. To fill this void, legal scholar Susan Franck has evaluated the criticisms of investment arbitration based on empirical studies of published or known disputes (Franck 2009; Franck 2007) . These efforts produced helpful data and initiated a productive discussion of these issues . However, the results and conclusions that can be drawn from Franck's work are more limited and warrant more nuance than Franck and others so far have taken into account. Franck's work is now widely used to support the notion that developing countries do not disproportionately ―lose‖ under the investment arbitration regime. Such a conclusion does not appear to be supported by Franck's data. This article analyzes Franck's work to show where differing conclusions emerge. We show that: 1) there is a lack of adequate sample composition and size to conduct rigorous empirical work from which an analyst could draw such bold lesson s; 2) discounting the fact that developing countries are subject to a disproportionate number of claims is not to be over looked, especially when looking at claims by the United States; and 3) relative to government budgets and in per capita terms developing countries pay significantly more in damages than developed nations do.
Topic:
Development, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment

18746. Antarctica: assessing and protecting Australia's national interests

Author:
Ellie Fogarty
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
International interest in Antarctica is rising. Major powers such as China and Russia have voiced their interest in the continent's resource potential, strongly suggesting the current prohibition of resource exploitation will be revisited after 2048. These developments pose a potential threat to the longevity of the Antarctic Treaty System as well as Australia's dormant claim to 42 per cent of the continent. Australia has limited Antarctic presence and capability, and posits its policy in terms of science and environmental management rather than national security. This raises questions about its ability to preserve its sovereignty claim.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Australia

18747. Turning the tide: improving access to climate financing in the Pacific Islands

Author:
Nic Maclellan
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits developed countries to provide assistance to 'developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation.' Despite recent commitments of 'fast-start' climate funding from donors, Pacific Island governments face significant obstacles in accessing sufficient resources to address the adverse effects of climate change on food security, water supply, coastal management and public health. Greater international coordination is required to increase access to climate finance for small island states. Without this coordination, efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 could be set back, due to the diversion of long - term development funding to disaster response and rebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Health, and Food
Political Geography:
United Nations, Australia, and Island

18748. Living with the dragon: why Australia needs a China strategy

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
If, metaphorically, Australia rode to prosperity on the back of a sheep in the last century, our skill in riding the Chinese dragon will determine our prosperity in this century. Yet despite its obvious importance, Australia has failed to grasp the full implications of China's meteoric rise or the risk of conflict in the Western Pacific. Our approach to China is fragmented, superficial, overly focused on raw - material exports, conflicted, ambivalent and under - resourced. Getting China wrong will have seriously detrimental consequences for our future security and growth.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Australia

18749. Pakistan's future policy towards Afghanistan

Author:
Qandeel Siddique
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
What factors are likely to govern the course of Pakistan's future policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan? This question has increasing relevance for regional security, especially in the light of the imminent endgame in Afghanistan and of the ongoing dialogue with the Taliban. This report probes the implications of the volatile US–Pakistan relationship and of Indo–Pak rivalry in the Af–Pak war theatre, in particular for Pakistan's reliance on militant extremist groups to secure and further its strategic interests. Developments pertaining to the role and engagement of the United States in the region and Indian ties to Afghanistan and the US affect Pakistan's perceived power status in the Indian subcontinent. The extent to which Pakistani interests are met in the process and out - come of brokering a deal with the Taliban is an additional determinant of whether Pakistan will continue with, or veer from, the status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

18750. Keeping Haiti Safe: Police Reform

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's porous land and sea borders remain susceptible to drug trafficking, smuggling and other illegal activities that weaken the rule of law and deprive the state of vital revenue. Post-quake insecurity underscores continued vulnerability to violent crime and political instability. Overcrowded urban slums, plagued by deep poverty, limited economic opportunities and the weakness of government institutions, particularly the Haitian National Police (HNP), breed armed groups and remain a source of broader instability. If the Martelly administration is to guarantee citizen safety successfully, it must remove tainted officers and expand the HNP's institutional and operational capacity across the country by completing a reform that incorporates community policing and violence reduction programs.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, and Natural Disasters