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18351. The JRTN Movement and Iraq's Next Insurgency

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The stabilization of iraq has become wedged on a plateau, beyond which further improvement will be a slow process. According to incident metrics compiled by Olive Group, the average monthly number of insurgent attacks between January and June 2011 was 380. The incident count in January was 376, indicating that incident levels remained roughly stable in the first half of 2011. One reason behind this stability is the ongoing virulence of northern and central Iraqi insurgents operating within Sunni Arab communities. Five predominately Sunni provinces and western Baghdad were responsible for an average of 68.5% of national incidents each month in 2011.
Topic:
Insurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia

18352. Cutting the Link between Crime and Local Politics: Colombia's 2011 Elections

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Deeply entrenched connections between criminal and political actors are a major obstacle to conflict resolution in Colombia. Illegal armed groups seek to consolidate and expand their holds over local governments in the October 2011 governorship, mayoral, departmental assembly and municipal council elections. The national government appears more willing and better prepared than in the past to curb the influence of illegal actors on the elections, but the challenges remain huge. The high number of killed prospective candidates bodes ill for the campaign, suggesting that the decade-old trend of decreasing electoral violence could be reversed. There are substantial risks that a variety of additional means, including intimidation and illegal money, will be used to influence outcomes. The government must rigorously implement additional measures to protect candidates and shield the electoral process against criminal infiltration, corruption and fraud. Failure to mitigate these risks would mean in many places four more years of poor local governance, high levels of corruption and enduring violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

18353. Governance and Corruption

Author:
Alina Mungiu-Pippidi
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Romanian Journal of Political Science
Institution:
Romanian Academic Society
Abstract:
Romania and Bulgaria encounter today problems in joining the visa-free Schengen area. The main one in the public eye is corruption. Both countries pledged to improve their rule of law when signing their accession treaties in 2005, yet little progress is perceived by observers or captured with governance measurements relying on perception, such as CPI and World Bank Governance indicators. This paper explores real policy, with fact-based indicators, to trace progress in the area – or lack of it – since 2004 to the present.
Topic:
Corruption
Political Geography:
Bulgaria and Romania

18354. Palestinian Reconciliation: Plus ÇA Change...

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Hamas and Fatah surprised all with their announcement of a reconciliation accord. What had been delayed since Hamas took over Gaza in 2007 and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas asked Salam Fayyad to form a government in the West Bank was done in Cairo in hours. Shock was matched by uncertainty over what had been agreed and the course it would take. Would the factions produce a national strategy and unify fractured institutions? Or would the agreement codify the status quo? Even some of the more pessimistic scenarios were optimistic. Reconciliation stumbled at its first hurdle, naming a prime minister – though that is not the only divisive issue. Neither side wants to admit failure, so the accord is more likely to be frozen than renounced, leaving the door slightly ajar for movement. Palestinian parties but also the U.S. and Europe need to recognise that reconciliation is necessary to both minimise the risk of Israeli-Palestinian violence and help produce a leader- ship able to reach and implement peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arab Countries

18355. Turkey and Greece: Time to Settle the Aegean Dispute

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Normalisation between Greece and Turkey has come far since tensions in the Aegean Sea threatened war three times between the NATO allies. Trade, investments and mutual cooperation and tourism have taken off, sidelining issues like the Cyprus problem, which first stirred up the Aegean dispute in the early 1970s. Frequent bilateral talks and Turkey's unofficial 2011 suspension of military over-flights of Greek islands suggest that the time may be ripe for a solution to that dispute. Turkey's strong new government elected in June is interested in further asserting itself as a responsible regional power, solving problems in its neighbourhood and clearing obstacles to its European Union (EU) accession. With Athens in the midst of a financial crisis and needing any economic lift and increased security it can find, this unnecessary and still potentially dangerous conflict should be resolved. A good strategy would be a synchronised set of steps to prepare public opinion on both sides, leading to a bilateral agreement and including, if needed, eventual re- course to international adjudication.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

18356. How Neopatrimonialism Affects Tax Administration: A Comparative Study of Three World Regions

Author:
Christian von Soest, Karsten Bechle, and Nina Korte
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Neopatrimonialism is a concept that has predominately been applied to describe governance in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, though, it has also been used to describe states from other world regions. However, scholars have rarely attempted to systematically compare neopatrimonial rule in different regional settings. This paper aims to narrow this gap by examining the effect of neopatrimonialism on the tax administration as a core state function in six countries from three different world regions: Argentina, Venezuela, Indonesia, the Philippines, Kenya and Zambia. We conclude that neopatrimonialism is a valuable concept for comparative area studies with the potential to foster dialogue on the "state in operation" across the regional divide. However, several indicators are more valid for some world regions than for others. We find that there is no systematic relationship between neopatrimonial trajectories and the strength of tax administration. Individual actor decisions influence the outcomes of neopatrimonialism substantially.
Topic:
Post Colonialism and Governance
Political Geography:
Kenya, Indonesia, Asia, Argentina, Philippines, Latin America, Venezuela, and Zambia

18357. Strangers at Home: North Koreans in the South

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the number of defectors from North Korea arriving in the South has surged in the past decade, there is a growing understanding of how difficult it would be to absorb a massive flow of refugees. South Korea is prosperous and generous, with a committed government and civil society, and yet refugees from the North almost all fail to integrate or thrive. Part of this is the change in the people coming; it is no longer just senior officials and fighter pilots who were useful and privileged propaganda tools. Nowadays many are women who have endured terrible deprivation in the North and abuse on their way to the South. Reconfiguring programs for defectors to take account of this change is essential if new defectors are to find a place in their new home.
Topic:
Communism, Human Rights, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
North Korea

18358. Mission-Wide Strategies for the Protection of Civilians

Author:
Cedric De Coning, Andreas Øien Stensland, and Walter Lotze
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The protection of civilians (PoC) has received increasing levels of attention in United Nations (UN) mandated peacekeeping operations over the course of the past decade. Since 1999, eleven UN peacekeeping operations have been provided with increasingly robust protection of civilians mandates, and the UN System has over the past years focussed increasing levels of attention on the protection of civilians, not only in peacekeeping operations, but indeed across the range of activities undertaken by the UN in support of conflict management, resolution and transformation efforts. Although the wording of the clauses that address the protection of civilians in UN Security Council resolutions has been quite similar to date, the ways in which different missions have implemented these mandates have varied. Because missions operate within differing contexts, each mission is required to develop a unique strategy through which to achieve the common principles and aims of protecting civilians in conflict situations according to the unique setting in which it operates.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

18359. Service Innovation and the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off Model of Trade and FDI

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper introduces service innovation in the proximity-concentration trade-off model of trade and FDI (Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple, 2004). The idea is that innovation will have two main effects on service firms' choice between exports and FDI. First, innovative firms will on average have higher productivity levels than non-innovative enterprises. Secondly, innovators will have to pay a higher relational distance cost for undertaking export activities, and they will therefore prefer to avoid (or reduce) these costs by choosing a FDI strategy instead. We test the empirical relevance of this idea on a new survey dataset for a representative sample of firms in all business service sectors in Norway. The results show that firms are more likely to choose FDI rather than export the greater their productivity level and the higher the relational distance costs they face.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

18360. Securing the trade supply chain

Author:
Nazery Khalid
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:
The recent report on the staggering value of cargos stolen in Malaysia may have triggered “Shiver me timbers!” expressions of surprise among many . It seems jarring for a progressive country like Malaysia to be ranked unfavorably in terms of the security of its trade supply chain, the network of resources, information and capital that links importers and exporters.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Malaysia