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17491. Renewable Resource Shocks and Conflict in India's Maoist Belt

Author:
Devesh Kapur, Kishore Gawande, and Shanker Satyanath
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Is there a causal relationship between shocks to renewable natural resources, such as agricultural and forest lands, and the intensity of conflict? In this paper, we conduct a rigorous econometric analysis of a civil conflict that the Indian Prime Minister has called the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by his country, the so-called Maoist conflict. We focus on over-time within-district variation in the intensity of conflict in the states where this conflict is primarily located. Using a novel data set of killings, we find that adverse renewable resource shocks have a robust, significant association with the intensity of conflict. A one standard deviation decrease in our measure of renewable resources increases killings by 12.5 percent contemporaneously, 9.7 percent after a year, and 42.2 percent after two years. Our instrumental variables strategy allows us to interpret these findings in a causal manner.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

17492. Nepal's Constitution (I): Evolution not Revolution

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's peace process was to end with a new constitution. Yet, after four years of delays and disputes, the country's main political parties were unable to agree on federalism, a core demand of large constituencies. On 27 May 2012, the term of the Constituent Assembly, which also served as parliament, ended without the new constitution being completed. The parties must now decide what to do next: hold an election for a new assembly or revive the last one. This will be hard. Obduracy on federalism, bickering over a unity government, a changing political landscape and communal polarisation make for complex negotiations, amid a dangerous legislative vacuum. The parties must assess what went wrong and significantly revise the composition and design of negotiations, or risk positions hardening across the political spectrum. Talks and decision-making need to be transparent and inclusive, and leaders more accountable. The public needs much better information. None of this will necessarily mend the deep social rifts, but it would reduce space for extremists and provocateurs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia

17493. Nepal's Constitution (II): The Expanding Political Matrix

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process and stalled constitution writing exercise, in particular the debate about federalism, have expanded Nepal's political matrix. Identity politics is a mainstream phenomenon and new ethnic-based and regional political forces are coalescing. Actors who want a federal structure that acknowledges Nepal's many identities have allied, overcoming other political differences. The Maoist party has split. Once centrist forces have moved to the right. All parties are grappling with factional and ideological divisions. Old monarchical forces are more visible. How these political shifts will settle depends on the parties' decisions on resuming constitution writing and future electoral calculations. The Constituent Assembly has been dissolved after failing to deliver the new constitution on the 27 May deadline. The constitution was to establish federalism and address the demands of marginalised groups. Social polarisation over these issues compounds constitutional uncertainty and the legislative vacuum. The tensions around federalism and fluid political equations threaten to provoke volatile confrontations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia

17494. The Euro Area Crisis and Turkey in the First Half of 2012

Author:
Evrydiki Fotopoulou and Erdal Tanas Karagöl
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
It has been almost four years since the global financial crisis started in 2008 and it has become an inherently European affair. One after another, weaker European economies seeing their growth plummeting have become unable to recover on their own and are resorting to loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Union (EU). Already, Ireland, Greece and Portugal have requested full bailouts with Southern Cyprus as the newcomer, still under negotiation, while Spain has requested only partial assistance not acknowledging it may soon need full support. Many experts predict that Italy will follow suit as it is quite possible that it will be the next which without any access to credit markets to finance its needs. This policy analysis sheds some light on the current status of these countries: how the crisis was brought about, what measures they took, how have they performed thus far and what are the prospects for them. The role of the European Union is also being discussed in reference to the hesitant way it has addressed the problem and the cracks that appeared in the European establishment due to lack of mutual understanding and cooperation. In contrast to the weaker European economies, neighboring Turkey has managed to recover fast and exhibit positive signs that the economy is moving towards more sustainable growth rates while dealing with domestic vulnerabilities. This comparison serves as a reminder to reconsider both the usefulness of the single currency as well as whether Turkey's economy would benefit from closer ties with it, given that Europe faces a continued slowdown at least until 2014.
Topic:
Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

17495. Election Reform in Pakistan

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The stabilisation of Pakistan's democratic transition will depend to a considerable extent on the manner in which the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) conducts the next general elections. These are due when the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led coalition government ends its fiveyear term in March 2013, or earlier if it so decides. Rigged elections and distortions of the process by military regimes or military-controlled governments have left the ECP in an advanced state of institutional decay. If the next elections are to result in the smooth transfer of power from one elected government to another and be widely perceived as legitimate and democratic by all stakeholders, it is imperative that the ECP be truly independent, impartial and effective.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

17496. Arctic Sustainability: The Predicament of Energy and Environmental Security

Author:
Erica M. Dingman
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Acquisition of Arctic hydrocarbon deposits is a strategic priority of Arctic states and numerous non-Arctic states alike. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the area north of the Arctic Circle holds 13 percent of undiscovered global oil reserves and 30 percent of undiscovered gas reserves, with the expectation that 84 percent of these reserves will be found offshore. Increasing global demand for energy, attributed primarily to population and income growth, alongside technical advancements and financial incentives will likely accelerate the rate at which stakeholders seek out these presumed Arctic hydrocarbons.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States

17497. Fergana as FATA? Central Asia after 2014 - Outcomes and Strategic Options

Author:
Ted Donnelly
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
After more than a decade at war, the world's most powerful military withdrew its combat forces from Afghanistan. Having variously pursued counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategies, the invading force had not been victorious, but neither had it been defeated. The superpower left behind a friendly Afghan government and reasonably well-trained and well-equipped Afghan security forces. It also left behind insurgents, including not only local Afghans but also foreign Islamists, whose capabilities had been disrupted and degraded but not defeated. The superpower continued to support its Afghan government allies, rendering financial support, military training, and technical assistance to address the insurgency. However, after two years, new political and fiscal realities forced the superpower to cease its support. Afghanistan descended into civil war, in which Islamic extremists prevailed. In return for their support, the new Islamist government repaid its foreign jihadist allies with safe haven, which they used to train and plan attacks against the United States, among others. They also destabilized Afghanistan's neighbors, creating conditions in which violent extremism thrived. To the north of Afghanistan, violent extremist organizations focused their attention on the Fergana Valley, a region that lies at the heart of Central Asia and is shared by three states.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

17498. Strategic Thinking about Future Security

Author:
Marian Kozub
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The reality that we face at the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century renders security issues, and in particular the ways of providing security, central to international attention, both in its present and future aspects. The reasons for this centrality are not only the revolutionary changes in science and technology, but also perhaps even more importantly the characteristics of the already diagnosed and existing threats and predicted challenges for the global security environment for which we have not yet found sufficient responses. This essay focuses on the notion of challenges and opportunities created by the world in transition that we undoubtedly face, instead of relying on the "language of threats" and the responsive, symptomatic approach towards them that has characterized the discourse of the strategic community in the past. Discussing a new security environment requires a new set of terms.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe

17499. NATO's Cooperation with Others: A Comprehensive Challenge

Author:
Agata Szydelko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
What defines NATO when it is compared to the United Nations and the European Union? Is NATO an "institution of doing" (task-oriented), or an "institution of being" (identity-based)? While trying to define the role and reasons for NATO's existence in comparison to the United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) and trying to answer whether NATO is an identity-based or task-oriented institution, it is worthwhile to reach out to the sources and find out when and why these three international institutions were established in the first place and what is the primary driver of their decision making.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

17500. Assessing the Arab Spring in Libya and Syria: A Compilation of Varying Statements from Key Actors

Author:
Charles Simpson
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The situations in Syria in February 2012 and in Libya in 2011 have provided the two most recent case studies in assessing a wide variety of international topics including NATO's future role in global security, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as a normative guide, the role of the League of Arab States (LAS) in the post-Arab Spring world, and the role of emerging powers on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Given the rapid proliferation of academic and professional examinations of the 2011 Libya and 2012 Syria cases, there appears a need for a compilation of the varying policies, resolutions, actions, and statements made by all relevant actors in both scenarios. The table below attempts to provide such a compilation in a concise and clearly structured format.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Arabia, United Nations, and Syria