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17171. Bahrain and the global balance of power after the Arab Spring

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

17172. Yemen: Enduring Conflicts, Threatened Transition

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As messy as it has been and unfinished as it remains, Yemen's transition accomplished two critical goals: avoiding a potentially devastating civil war and securing the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the impoverished country for over three decades. It also cracked the regime's foundations, while making it possible to imagine new rules of the game. Still, much remains in doubt, notably the scope and direction of change. The nation essentially has witnessed a political game of musical chairs, one elite faction swapping places with the other but remaining at loggerheads. Important constituencies – northern Huthi, southern Hiraak, some independent youth movements – feel excluded and view the transition agreement with scepticism, if not distain. Al-Qaeda and other militants are taking advantage of a security vacuum. Socio-economic needs remain unmet. The new government must rapidly show tangible progress (security, economic, political) to contain centrifugal forces pulling Yemen apart, while reaching out to stakeholders and preparing the political environment for inclusive national dialogue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Yemen and Arabia

17173. Is it all about territory? Israel's settlement policy in the occupied Palestinian territory since 1967

Author:
Leila Stockmarr
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Changing with rapid speed, the current political geography of the occupied Palestinian territory has de facto come to undermine a two-state solution and is turning the official aim and end point of international negotiations at best into a naïve mirage for policymakers and at worst into a façade for a very different political game playing out in the occupied territory of the West Bank and Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem: that of Israel's ongoing territorial expansion into Palestinian land. The study shows how the settlement policies inside what are internationally-recognised Palestinian territories are not merely undermining the realisation of the two-state solution: the territorial claims put forward and pursued in practice and their anchoring in strategies of legitimisation reach far beyond international legal standards. This reveals a very different political narrative embedded at the core of the conflict from that projected by those images often appearing in the mainstream media and policy circles: a narrative of an ongoing struggle over land detached from any 'Peace Process' measures.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

17174. Europeanising labour migration policies and pursuing national objectives

Author:
Katrine Borg Albertsen
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The EU Blue Card scheme offers skilled labour migrants access to, and onward mobility within, the EU labour market. Due to its justice and home affairs opt-out Denmark is cut off from participation, and instead pursues national schemes for high-skilled labour migration. It is in the best interests of both Denmark and the EU to pursue fully integrated strategic goals aimed at producing a competitive joint policy on economic migration.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

17175. Unfinished Business: A Framework for Peace in the Great Lakes

Author:
Rigobert Minani Bihuzo
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Landmark peace agreements signed in 2002 by 11 African governments and various nonstate armed groups were meant to end 7 years of war that had ravaged Africa's Great Lakes region. A decade later, instability, tightly intertwined with regional geopolitics, persists. Recurring conflict has killed tens of thousands, mostly civilians, and displaced millions of others. The extended instability has also led to a collapse of basic social services and economic activity in parts of the DRC, resulting in manifold more deaths due to malnutrition, lack of access to basic healthcare, and scarce livelihood opportunities.Amid this breakdown, barbaric forms of violence have emerged. During one 4-day period in the summer of 2011, nearly 400 women, men, and children were raped by militia fighters. Since 1996, there have reportedly been more than 200,000 rapes, which are mostly attributed to armed militias.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

17176. How Indonesian Extremists Regroup

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Almost ten years after the Bali bombing that brought terrorism in Indonesia to international attention, the country's violent extremists are weak and divided but still active. In the face of strong police pressure, they are finding ways to regroup on the run, in prison and through internet forums, military training camps and arranged marriages. In many cases, the same individuals keep reappearing, using old networks to build new alliances. The fact that they have been singularly inept in their operations in recent years does not mean that the danger of attacks is over. There are signs that at least some are learning lessons from past failures and becoming more sophisticated in recruitment and fundrais-ing. Better understanding of how extremists regroup could lead to more effective counter-radicalisation programs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

17177. Biometrics as security technology: Expansion amidst fallibility

Author:
Katja Lindskov Jacobsen
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Biometric technology has been afforded a central role in the security architecture that Western governments have forged since the events of 9/11 2001. With biometrics the body becomes the anchor of identification. In a security architecture centred on identification of persons of interest and determination of their status as friend or foe, biometrics has come to be praised for its supposedly exceptional capacity to identify reliably.
Topic:
Security, Government, Science and Technology, and Biosecurity

17178. Diaspora groups and development in fragile situations: Lessons learnt

Author:
Nauja Kleist and Ida Vammen
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Migrants send remittances three times worth official development aid to developing countries, reaching an estimated 325 USD Billion in 2012. Transnational migrant and diaspora organizations support social service, infrastructural and reconstruction projects – such as schools and hospitals – in their erstwhile home regions. Finally diaspora professionals contribute to reconstruction and development processes through temporary or long-term return. How can donors partner with them and support their contributions?
Topic:
Development, Migration, Foreign Aid, Immigration, Infrastructure, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Europe

17179. Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although it should provide development opportunities, renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents a real threat to stability in a still vulnerable post-conflict country. Exploration has begun, but oil prospecting is nurturing old resentments among local communities and contributing to border tensions with neighbouring countries. If oil reserves are confirmed in the east, this would exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics in the Kivus. An upsurge in fighting since the start of 2012, including the emergence of a new rebellion in North Kivu and the resumption of armed groups' territorial expansion, has further complicated stability in the east, which is the new focus for oil exploration. New oil reserves could also create new centres of power and question Katanga's (DRC's traditional economic hub) political influence. Preventive action is needed to turn a real threat to stability into a genuine development opportunity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

17180. Organized Crime, Conflict, and Fragility: A New Approach

Author:
Rachel Locke
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Transnational organized crime (TOC) is a global challenge posing serious threats to our collective peace and security. But in conflict-affected and fragile states the threats of transnational organized crime present particular and insidious challenges requiring new and innovative responses. Not only does TOC undermine the strength of the state, it further affects the critical and often contested relationship between the state and society. In fragile and conflict-affected states it is precisely the degraded nature of this relationship that often prevents progress toward greater peace and prosperity. While there is now an established correlation between conflict and state fragility, much less is understood about the relationship between transnational organized crime, conflict, and fragility. This report examines the dynamics between conflict, state fragility, and TOC, demonstrating how the three fit together in an uneasy triumvirate, and it presents ideas for a more effective response.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Crime, Development, Poverty, and Fragile/Failed State