JONATHAN BENJAMIN-ALVARADO and GREGORY A. PETROW examine Gallup World Poll data from Cuba to evaluate both the level of Cuban regime approval, as well as its causes. They conclude that Cubans are satisfied overall with their leaders, and that part of this satisfaction stems from equating the regime with the state.
JOSHUA W. BUSBY and JONATHAN MONTEN analyze opinion polls, focusing on the degree of congruence between Republican elites and the general public on foreign policy. They find Republican elites to be consistently more internationalist than the public on most dimensions.
If perfect policies and complete foresight are beyond us, perhaps we can at least minimize mistakes and reduce uncertainty. These are the objectives of the two books under review. Of course this is not new, and the fact—if it is a fact—that things have not gotten much better might lead us to wonder if even these somewhat-modest objectives can be reached. General Carl Von Clausewitz's comment may still apply: “We know more, but this makes us more, not less uncertain.”
Thomas Christensen has written a superb book that will be of value to scholars of both international relations theory and East Asian security. Refining theories of alliances to explore when and under what conditions weakly coordinated alliances lead to miscalculation, and when and why tightly coordinated alliances might also lead to miscalculation, Christensen provides a number of insights into the complexities of international relations. Christensen argues that while it may seem that facing a united and coordinated set of enemies may appear to be dangerous, it may be just as dangerous to face a set of enemies that are uncoordinated and internally divided. This is because engaging in successful coercive diplomacy with divided enemies is more difficult. Furthermore, internal divisions can lead to mixed signals and contradictory diplomacy, both of which can increase the possibility for miscalculation.
Writing about the rise of China and what this means for the rest of the world has become a cottage industry outside of China. Virtually all of these books, however, have been written by non-Chinese, not that one has to be Chinese to be able to understand contemporary China and engage in informed speculation about that country's future and its implications for the planet. Nevertheless, the opinions and ideas of most Chinese authors on these subjects tend to be inaccessible to non-Chinese speakers. The Brookings Institution has done a great service by selecting some of the most interesting and influential Chinese intellectuals and translating their writings into English in its “Chinese Thinkers Series.”
President Ronald Reagan's firing of more than 12,000 illegally striking air traffic controllers in August 1981 is widely considered a defining moment both for Reagan's presidency and for American organized labor. For Reagan, it was the first of many lines in the sand he drew during his presidency. For organized labor, it marked an assault from an anti-union president determined to prevail against a Democratic constituency.
After more than 20 years of major market reforms that followed a foreign exchange crisis in 1991, India's stunning economic growth has enlarged its international profile. But unlike China, India's security challenges and perspectives on foreign policy remain largely unknown to the rest of the world. What kind of great power does India aim to be?
There was a brief period during the past four months –16 days to be precise – when it looked like a breakthrough was possible in the longstanding nuclear stalemate with North Korea; then Pyongyang reverted to form. Shortly after pledging to freeze all nuclear and missile tests, Pyongyang announced a satellite launch, pulling the rug out from under Washington (and itself) and business as usual (or unusual) returned to the Peninsula. The announcement also cast a shadow over the second Nuclear Security Summit hosted by Seoul while providing additional rationale for Washington's “pivot” toward Asia.
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Washington, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang
There is an old Japanese saying that no one should be prepared “to wait even three years sitting on the rock” (“ishi no ue ni mo sannen”). After three tumultuous and frustrating years as the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) tried to find its sea legs, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko finally made the first official visit to Washington of a Japanese prime minister since the spring 2009. Noda had his hands full this quarter: pursuing an increase in the consumption tax, trying to convince a wary public to support some continuation of nuclear power, cobbling together domestic support to move ahead with Japanese participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, and facing the perennial struggle to make progress on relocating Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa. By the time of his Washington visit, Noda had started to line up support for the consumption tax backed off temporarily on TPP, and waited on restarting nuclear plants. However, he did manage to complete an agreement to move ahead with de-linking the move of about 9,000 US Marines to Guam and other locations in the Pacific and setting aside (but not give up on) the Futenma Relocation Facility (FRF). That announcement was a rare victory and set a positive tone for the summit and the joint statement Noda and President Obama made pledging to revitalize the US-Japan alliance. The prime minister returned home on May 1 facing the same stack of difficult domestic political challenges, but with an important if limited accomplishment in foreign policy.
China's next leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to the US for a visit that went smoothly and laid a foundation for a strong bilateral relationship after the 18th Party Congress this fall. Senior US and Chinese officials delivered speeches to mark the 40th anniversary of Nixon's 1972 visit to China, highlighting the progress made and the importance of the bilateral relationship while recognizing the deep mutual strategic mistrust. The third Asia-Pacific Consultation was held to manage suspicious and enhancement cooperation. President Obama met Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit and coordinated planned responses to North Korea's satellite launch. Friction increased with the filing of a complaint with the WTO that charged China with manipulating prices of rare earth elements. Beijing angered the Obama administration at the UN Security Council by vetoing a resolution that called for Syria's president to step down. But as the violence worsened, the Council passed a resolution that authorized observers to monitor the ceasefire. China rebuffed US entreaties to reduce tis oil imports from Iran and the US imposed sanctions on a Chinese company for selling refined oil to Iran. A Chinese dissident sought assistance by entering the US Embassy, creating potential new challenges for the relationship.
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea