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16071. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE

Author:
Joe Stork
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

16072. United Arab Emirates

Author:
Christopher Davidson
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Formed in 1971 following Britain's departure from the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a federation made up of seven monarchies, each of which retains traditional powers alongside more formal emirate-level and federal governments. With the bulk of the UAE's hydrocarbon reserves in the largest emirate of Abu Dhabi, the latter's ruling family continues to dominate UAE politics. Although a semi-elected consultative council exists, this is far from being an effective parliament, and since the 2011 “Arab Spring” there have been strong calls for greater democracy, which have led to the imprisonment of more than 50 activists. Externally, Iran remains the most significant threat to the UAE regime, having occupied three UAE islands since 1971 and continuing to alarm the UAE with its nuclear programme. Although the UAE is a wealthy country, often suffering from “voluntary unemployment” among its nationals, there is a serious wealth distribution problem, with poorer parts of the country experiencing poverty. Hydrocarbons remain the mainstay of the UAE's economy, although there have been some spirited attempts to diversify into other sectors, especially in Dubai, which is the UAE's most business-friendly emirate.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Britain and Dubai

16073. Regional security co-operation in the smaller Gulf states

Author:
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This overview paper examines the challenges facing regional security co-operation in the five smaller Gulf States. It demonstrates the resilience and durability of intra-regional differences, particularly scepticism of Saudi Arabia's greater size and regional objectives. With the notable exception of Bahrain, differences of outlook have continued into the post-Arab Spring period as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman hold significant reservations about moving toward a closer Gulf union. The Arab Spring has injected urgent new domestic considerations into a regional security complex hitherto marked by external instability. Yet the bold political action and longer-term planning that is needed to address these issues is lacking, because ruling elites prioritise short-term policies designed to ensure regime security in a narrower sense. This means that security remains defined in hard, “traditional” terms and has not evolved to include the security of individuals and communities rather than rulers and states. The future of regional security co-operation is therefore uncertain and bleak, and the closing of ranks may yet herald a closer Gulf union as rulers come together to deal with the pressures generated by the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

16074. The threat of growing extremism in Punjab

Author:
David Hansen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
During the last few years Punjab has experienced a deep social crisis in which Islamist organisations have been able to challenge the Pakistani authorities' power – as certain Islamist organisations, including extremist ones, increasingly are filling the role of welfare providers to the people. Punjab is experiencing a shift from the traditional Barelvi (Sufi) Islam towards more orthodox interpretations of the faith – often in quite radical variants. Some of the most important extremist Islamist organisations instrumental in this reorientation have become involved in criminal activity and in settling scores between competing bodies at the local level. Local judiciary, police and politicians often function as enablers for the extremists. This is not only troublesome for Pakistan: rising radical Islamist tendencies can be witnessed in Norway among certain Norwegian-Pakistanis. This policy brief describes some initial findings regarding the potential consequences of Punjab's social crisis, its patterns of extremism and the reorientation of religion in the province. It argues that in addition to being problematic for Pakistan, this development may have an adverse effect on diaspora communities living in the West.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

16075. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios

Author:
Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

16076. Negotiating disarmament and demobilisation in peace processes: what is the state of the evidence?

Author:
Robert Muggah and Matthias Rieger
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report considers the extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) and related concepts are accounted for in peace processes and peace agreements. It focuses on the scale and scope of provisions for disarmament and demobilisation in peace agreements, the nature of their sequencing and inclusion in such agreements, and the types of security mechanisms intended to promote confidence among parties. It finds that key provisions for DDR are present in over half of all comprehensive peace agreements (numbering 37 in total) and fewer than 5% of all related peace accords, protocols and resolutions (numbering 640 in total). This review does not discern clear patterns of where key concepts are located or distributed in peace agreements. In reviewing negotiating experiences, however, it finds that “disarmament” and “demobilisation” are often relegated to the end of talks and/or left ambiguous in peace agreements themselves. Mediators or parties to a conflict thus seldom regard disarmament and demobilisation as preconditions for negotiations. They are nevertheless central to wider questions of security sector transformation and transitional justice in the aftermath of war.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and War

16077. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"

Author:
ees van der Pijl
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo ˘gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

16078. Brazil: an emerging peacekeeping actor

Author:
Per M. Norheim-Martinsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As the presence of Western states in UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually decreased, new states have been filling the resultant void, although these operations remain wedded to Western ideas and standards of how such interventions should be carried out. However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now taking the lead on the ground, the question that this report seeks to shed light on is how this is starting to affect the way in which the UN carries out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It shows that rather than being a “transmission belt” for a traditional Western model of military intervention, Brazil's lead in MINUSTAH has had an added value, building on Brazilian experience with urban conflict, which is an area with which the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact, several states, including the U.S., have started to look to Brazil when developing and adapting concepts for urban and anti-crime operations. This shows that as Brazil has become a more active participant in UN PKOs, it has also gradually begun to set the agenda for how the UN runs such operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

16079. Disarmament and demobilisation in comparative perspective: patterns and policy recommendations

Author:
Madhav Joshi and J. Michael Quinn
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Disarmament and demobilisation (DD) programmes are vital components of strategic peacebuilding. DD provisions govern the collection and disposal of arms and ammunition, and oversee the discharge of active-duty combatants from the state's armed forces, rebel groups, or both. Using data from the Peace Accords Matrix database, this report compares the five most recent cases of DD implementation: Nepal (2006), Liberia (2003), Macedonia (2001), Indonesia-Aceh (2005) and South Sudan (2005). A comparative analysis reveals several common patterns in the kinds of provisional and operational choices associated with efficient DD implementation. Having a definite timeline and largely completing the process prior to the first elections creates an incentivised environment for a timely DD process while diminishing the risks of election-related violence. Economic incentives associated with the process of cantonment can increase the duration of DD programmes. External actors with a strong mandate can solve problems faster and have been instrumental in achieving a swift DD progression. Disarmament programmes must be realistically matched to conflict settings. This can include the use of mobile collection units, which have proved to be successful in cases where a primary centralised site is not sufficient.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Nepal, Macedonia, Liberia, and South Sudan

16080. Who rules Nigeria?

Author:
Inge Amundsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Nigeria has experienced military coups, a civil war and very poor economic development, and its population is more impoverished today than at independence. Behind this lies the “oil curse”. The ruling elite has captured the rents generated from oil for personal enrichment and power purposes. Nigeria's elite formation has three distinct characteristics. It is based on a fusion of elites, with the military dominating. It is consolidated through power diversification (with the conversion of political power into economic power as the most important), and it is enriched through economic extraction (where the usurpation of the country's oil wealth is pivotal).
Topic:
Civil War, Corruption, Democratization, Oil, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria