Search

1181. Forecasting Chinese expansion into Central Asia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In early April 2024, China signed a two-year enhanced security cooperation agreement with Uzbekistan, which was reached during a meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Interior Minister Pulat Bobojonov in Tashkent. Some believe this pact was prompted by escalating international and regional competition for Central Asia, mainly because it came amid moves by international and regional powers in the five countries. Moreover, as China expands activities in this region to capitalize on cooperation potentials and opportunities, its influence in the five Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is steadily rising, mainly encouraged by Moscow's preoccupation with its war in Ukraine. The development is raising questions about the future of China's presence in Central Asia in the coming years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Asia

1182. The role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The use of artificial intelligence technologies in various armed conflict arenas, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli war in Gaza, has sparked numerous discussions about their nature, risks to international and regional security, and the sustainability of the conflict. These experiments have shown that weapons supported by artificial intelligence can be more accurate than those directed by humans, which can potentially reduce collateral damage, including civilian casualties, damage to residential areas, and the number of soldiers killed or injured. However, it also raises concerns about the possibility of committing disastrous mistakes.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1183. What Future Awaits Pakistani-Afghan Relations?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan rejected, on May 12, 2024, a scheduled visit from a Pakistani military delegation to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada. The visit aimed to discuss border management and the Pakistani branch of the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP). The cancellation of the visit followed Islamabad's drone and missile attacks on Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan. Earlier, on March 18, 2024, Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes on the Afghan provinces of Khost and Paktika in response to a deadly attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban's security forces in North Waziristan. This indicates the ongoing tension marring relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Borders
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

1184. Could the Territorial Dispute Ignite Conflict Between Venezuela and Guyana?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On May 5, 2024, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the presence of US military and intelligence bases in the Essequibo region, a disputed territory between Venezuela and Guyana. This announcement marks a new escalation in the ongoing dispute over the region, which has gained significant importance following recent major oil discoveries.
Topic:
Security, Oil, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, Guyana, and Essequibo

1185. Motives for the Resurgence of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Sadrist Movement has recently increased its activities throughout Iraq, hinting at a possible return to the country's political landscape. This development follows the movement's vow to boycott the political process in July 2022.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1186. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1187. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
Topic:
Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1188. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:
Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

1189. What are the Potential Consequences of the Current Crisis in Bangladesh?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The sudden collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government after 15 years in power has left a dangerous void in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The long-standing Prime Minister resigned following violent demonstrations and fled to neighboring India after protesters stormed her official residence. The situation on the ground has become volatile amidst the power vacuum. The military has since appointed a caretaker government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, who was previously considered an opponent by Hasina's Awami League government and was accused of corruption. The conviction, however, was overturned by the court following the collapse of the Awami League's rule and Hasina's escape. The key question now is whether the military will play a role in the country's future or if Yunus, in collaboration with the nascent student movement, can tackle the political, economic, and regional challenges facing Bangladesh—especially since the economist has announced his intention to call for general elections after a period of "stability."
Topic:
Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, Military, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

1190. Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education

Author:
Allan E. Goodman and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
For over a century, the United States has been the leading destination for international students. Unlike higher education systems elsewhere, the U.S. maintains a decentralized public and private tertiary education system where international students may apply and enroll at the state, city, and local levels. This annual brief presents key trends in academic mobility to the United States, comparing annual findings to our projections, and suggestions for campus planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in international students.
Topic:
Education, Higher Education, Students, and International Exchange
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America