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291. War with Iraq?

Author:
Peter Van Ness, Hugh White, Stuart Harris, Amin Saikal, and Peter C. Gration
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
What curious path has brought us to this point? Just over a year ago, terrorists from the amorphous transnational Al Qaeda network killed thousands of Americans and other nationals by flying planes into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in Washington, and a field in Pennsylvania. Today, the United States is preparing to launch a war against the state of Iraq, emphasising the grave and imminent danger posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, but animated also by a long-standing goal of 'regime change'. What explains this 'statising' of the so-called 'war against terrorism'? What risks does it pose for regional and world order?
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

292. Consequence Management in the 1995 Sarin Attacks on the Japanese Subway System

Author:
Robyn Pangi
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In the early to mid 1990s, a group known as Aum Shinrikyo amassed, and used against innocent civilians, an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. A large body of literature details the evolution of Aum Shinrikyo, its shocking attacks on a housing complex in Matsumoto and on five subway lines in Tokyo using a chemical weapon, and Japanese society's reaction to the attacks. Not much analysis, however, has been done on the lessons learned about consequence management from the first significant terrorist attacks with weapons of mass destruction to occur in modern times. Recent events in the United States including the dispersal of anthrax spores through the mail and scores of hoaxes alleging use of anthrax have brought the issue of terrorism using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) closer to home. The handling of the Aum Shinrikyo attacks offers the opportunity for policymakers, emergency response personnel, and other relevant professionals to learn about WMD consequence management.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, and Matsumoto

293. A New Agenda for Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Ivo H Daalder and James M Lindsay
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
George W. Bush promised on the campaign trail “to leave the cold war behind” and “rethink the requirements for nuclear deterrence.” Last November, he unveiled an arms reduction proposal that purports to do just that. It would have the United States reduce its strategic nuclear arsenal over the next ten years from its current level of 7,200 warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads. Equally important, the United States would achieve that goal not by negotiating a new Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) agreement, but through unilateral action.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

294. Enhancing Nuclear Security in the Counter-Terrorism Struggle: India and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller and Rebecca Longsworth
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THIS PAPER REPORTS THE RESULTS OF A STUDY of the potential to apply the principles and practice of threat reduction cooperation to countries beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union. The study, which was funded by the MacArthur Foundation, focused on the application of concepts and tools used in the former Soviet Union to the region of South Asia. The research was designed to explore what might be done cooperatively to enhance the security of the nuclear assets of India and Pakistan, lest they fall into the hands of terrorists or leaders of rogue states who would use them to threaten other states or peoples.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

295. Building Leverage in the Long War: Ensuring Intelligence Community Creativity in the Fight against Terrorism

Author:
James W. Harris
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Intelligence is often cited as a critical element in the war against terrorism and, indeed, it is. The U.S. intelligence community has a golden opportunity to develop the capabilities that will make a decisive difference in a war that may last a generation or more. The adversary will not disappear as the campaign to root the al-Qaeda out of Afghanistan winds down. It is essential that intelligence make the transition to the longer-term fight, and the time to begin that transition is at hand.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

296. Why the United States Should Not Attack Iraq

Author:
Ivan Eland and Bernard Gourley
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
For months the Bush administration has been preparing the country for war with Iraq. The administration has argued that only a forcible regime change can neutralize the threat that Saddam Hussein is said to pose. But the assumptions that underlie the administration's policy range from cautiously pessimistic to outright fallacious. First, there is a prevalent belief that if Iraq is able to obtain nuclear weapons it will inevitably use them. Second, there is a notion that Hussein is totally irrational and cannot be trusted to act in a predictable manner; and, because of that, his leadership creates a substantial risk of instability in the Middle East. Finally, many people in the United States have come to believe that war in Iraq may be the only means of nullifying the threat posed by Iraq's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

297. The Empire Strikes Out: The "New Imperialism": and Its Fatal Flaws

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, several commentators have advanced the idea of security through empire. They claim that the best way to protect the United States in the 21st century is to emulate the British, Roman, and other empires of the past. The logic behind the idea is that if the United States can consolidate the international system under its enlightened hegemony, America will be both safer and more prosperous. Although the word “empire” is not used, the Bush administration's ambitious new National Security Strategy seems to embrace the notion of neoimperialism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

298. The Nuclear Dimension of U.S.-Russian Relations: Missile Defense, Arms Control and 'Loose Nukes'

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The United States and Russia are entering an important stage following the Presidential summit of May 2002. Since Presidents Bush and Putin first started getting to know one another last year, they have been declaring the onset of a fundamentally new relationship, based on a new framework for strategic cooperation. Both leaders have declared that the Cold War is over and that our two countries can exist as friends.
Topic:
Cold War, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

299. Key Judgments (from October 2002 NIE) - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. (See INR alternative view at the end of these Key Judgments.)
Topic:
International Relations, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

300. Maintaining the Effectiveness of the Chemical Weapons Convention

Author:
Jean Pascal Zanders, Frida Kuhlau, John Hart, and Ronald Sutherland
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 28 April 2003 a Special Conference of the States Parties to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will be convened to review the implementation of the 1993 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (Chemical Weapons Convention, CWC) and to take into account new, relevant, scientific and technological developments. Whatever specific points may be considered, this Conference needs to address two underlying issues: States Parties' long-term interests in continued participation in the OPCW regime; and how the treaty's effectiveness can be maintained and enhanced given the latest shifts in the security environment (including the new urgency of counter-terrorist efforts), current political and financial realities and the fast pace of technological change. These can best be tackled if the Conference focuses its attention on a small number of manageable, well-conceptualized issues. Otherwise there is a risk that the Conference could become bogged down in open-ended discussions on a myriad of unresolved operational implementation issues.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction