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161. Inside Iranian Politics and Nuclear Strategy: A G-20 Briefing

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji and Stephen P. Rosen
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Studying the behavior of states with nuclear weapons may give some insight into what Iran would do if it acquires nuclear weapons capabilities. Every state that has nuclear weapons, with the exception of India, has shared the technology and the know-how -- not the weapons -- with other states: the United States shared technology with Great Britain and then, in the 1950s, provided nuclear weapons for German fighter jets on German bases flown by German pilots; Israel and France shared nuclear energy technology in the 1960s;China assisted Pakistan; North Korea aided Syria; and Pakistan assisted many countries through the A. Q.Khan network. In short, states transfer nuclear technology because it is easy to accomplish, difficult to track, and returns very high rewards.
Topic:
Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and North Korea

162. Quds Day in Iran: Velvet Revolution Trumps Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While the United States is concentrating on the G-20 summit and the October 1 meeting with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iranian attention has been focused on the potentially destabilizing protests planned for September 18, Quds Day. This critical difference of agenda -- with Iran focused more on its domestic turmoil than on simmering international issues -- will be a major complicating factor in negotiations between the international community and Iran in the coming weeks.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

163. Iran's Nuclear Program: Lessons from Pakistan

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Public anxiety about Iran's nuclear intentions is focused on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, which in many respects -- in both the public debate and the policy discussion -- resembles the situation in the 1980s when there was growing concern about Pakistan's Kahuta enrichment plant. The lessons that can be draw from that experience are not encouraging. The comparison is particularly appropriate because Iran uses the same high-speed centrifuge technology to enrich uranium as does Pakistan. Photos of Iranian centrifuges show some of them as identical to Pakistani designs developed by the disgraced A.Q. Khan. Iran also claims to be operating more advanced centrifuges using its own modifications.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East

164. A tighter net: strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative

Author:
Emma Belcher
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 of June 2009 puts extra sanctions on North Korea and encourages lawful interdictions. This adds credibility to the 95-member Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a US-initiated arrangement to promote interception of transfers of cargoes related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). South Korea's recent decision to join PSI is another positive step.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
North Korea and Australia/Pacific

165. Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers

Author:
Rory Medcalf and Amandeep Gill
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
To reduce the grave dangers posed by the continued existence and spread of nuclear weapons, and the risk that they will one day again be used, unconventional diplomacy is needed. Part of the problem is the way in which global agreements or pragmatic interim solutions are often obstructed by longstanding divisions among nations: nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members and nonmembers; Western states and the non-aligned. New partnerships and platforms for dialogue could cut across these stale categories, at least on some issues, and expand the space for agreement and new thinking. Australia and India could take the lead in crafting one such new partnership.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Australia/Pacific

166. Denmark and Modern Non-proliferation Assistance and Disarmament

Author:
Cindy Vestergaard
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Many countries address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by cooperatively allocating money, resources and expertise into projects. This DIIS Policy Brief outlines the specific areas where Denmark has the potential to expand on its already well-established expertise to develop a niche non-proliferation and disarmament programme.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

167. Modern Non-proliferation and Disarmament: Denmark and the G8 global partnership

Author:
Cindy Vestergaard
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was established at the 2002 G8 Summit with a total financial commitment of up to US$20 billion over ten years. Denmark's contributions to the initiative totalled over 18 million EUR, but no new commitments have been announced since 2004. Leading up to the 2010 G8 summit, Denmark has an opportunity to discuss its role in the newly expanded and extended Global Partnership (GP) and raise its international non-proliferation and disarmament profile. This report outlines how the history of non-proliferation and disarmament assistance has developed into its modern form, and the potential for future programming. It lays out the progress made in the GP's five priority project areas, contributions by donors, and the potential for Denmark to contribute to a global effort. The report makes ten recommendations for how Denmark can raise its non-proliferation profile and contribute to an expanded GP by tapping into areas where its unique and already-established expertise can be assembled into an effective niche assistance programme.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Denmark

168. Taking the Path of Delegitimization to Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Amandeep Singh Gill
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper describes a “base camp” on the path to the “summit” of nuclear elimination in which the current tradition of nuclear non-use has been strengthened significantly, so that nuclear use and nuclear threats are delegitimized as instruments of national power. Before describing this future world and the steps that could lead up to or beyond it, the paper presents some essential background information on nuclear delegitimization.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

169. Beyond Zero Enrichment: Suggestions for an Iranian Nuclear Deal

Author:
Matthew Bunn
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The United States and the other members of the P5+1 are struggling to launch the first in-depth negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program in which the United States has participated. The United States comes to the table with few good options. Sanctions have failed to change Iran's decisions about its nuclear program, and no feasible set of sanctions (given the limits of what China, Russia, and others will agree to) is likely to convince Iran to give up its enrichment program. Military strikes against Iran would probably not set back Iran's program for longer than a brief period and would greatly increase Iran's incentive to go straight to the bomb at covert sites (as Iraq did after Israel destroyed its facilities at Osiraq).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Middle East

170. An All Hazards Training Center for a Catastrophic Emergency

Author:
Xavier Stewart
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Since assuming command in 1998 of the first Civil Support Team (CST) Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Colonel Stewart witnessed and experienced dramatic changes in homeland security theory, policy, and practice. Understandably, the most significant changes have occurred since the horrific attacks on September 11, 2001, which violently demonstrated how turbulent today's world strategic environment is. Widely available chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, high yield explosive, and cyberspace security (CBRNE-C) materials, technologies, and equipment often have dual uses. Preventing rogue states and terrorist organizations from acquiring these materials is a necessary but formidable challenge. Additionally, the cyber domain has grown tremendously and may be used to target key infrastructure and resources. In addition to these threats, dramatic weather changes have caused unusual and devastating shifts in weather patterns, which in turn have triggered catastrophic events.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States