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101. Revisiting the 2007 Surge in Iraq

Author:
Anton Minkov and Peter Tikuisis
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The 2007 surge in Iraq is considered one of the most significant military events in recent history given that it coincided with a marked decrease in violent attacks. However, revisiting “significant activity” (SIGACT) data reveals that violence had generally peaked before the surge. This study presents also an examination of other factors that might explain the earlier decline in violence, before the surge was even announced. It is difficult to pinpoint the trends that were most prominent, but they all likely contributed to a shift in the momentum of the security situation in the fall of 2006, before the surge was even announced. Thus, our analysis suggests that the surge was an unnecessary gambit. This paper aims to caution strategic policy decision-makers against misinterpreting the efficacy of surge capability in a complex and dynamically changing security situation.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

102. Blurred Lines: Mexican Cartels and the Narco-Terrorism Debate

Author:
Alexander Salt
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Since 2006, well over 70 000 lives have been claimed by Cartel and narcotics related violence in Mexico. The sheer scale of this conflict has attracted considerable scholarly attention, particularly that which seeks to classify what type of violence this is, be it terrorism, insurgency or something else altogether. This paper addresses this issue by asking: Can Mexican Cartels be considered terrorist organizations? The paper explores the evolution of the Cartels in Mexico from 2006-present, analyzing their motivations, tactics and operations, organizational structures, and targets of violence. The paper concludes that Cartels should not be defined as terrorists as they lack political motives for their use of violence. However, Cartels can be said to have a dual nature; sometimes they act like terrorists in terms of their operational and tactical level behavior, and the rest of the time they act as illicit businessmen.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Violence, and Drugs
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

103. Global Peace Index 2017: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2017 GPI, this year’s report includes analysis of the Positive Peace factors that are most important for transitioning to higher levels of peace and how deteriorations in Positive Peace are linked to the rise of populism in Europe. The report also assesses the trends in peacekeeping and militarisation, including a cost/benefit analysis highlighting the positive economic benefits from early peacebuilding interventions.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Conflict Averted Without Anyone Firing a Shot: Subregional, Multilateral Action Helps Prevent Atrocities in The Gambia

Author:
Jaclyn Streitfeld-Hall
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The Gambia, the smallest country in mainland Africa, made big news in January 2017, when Adama Barrow became the nation’s third president after defeating incumbant Yahya Jammeh in the December 2016 elections. Jammeh initially refused to accept the results, which triggered a constitutional crisis and threat of mass conflict. Following is the story of how mass violence was averted was averted through multilateral regional intervention and peaceful transition of governance.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, History, Multilateralism, Violence, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

105. Refugee Flows Show Burundi Crisis Worsening

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
After two years the Burundi crisis continues to worsen. Despite government claims that the situation has normalized, facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, Burundi, and East Africa

106. Military Statecraft and the Use of Multinational Exercises in World Politics

Author:
Kyle J Wolfley
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
How do major powers use militaries to cope with diverse threats in a complex environment of costly conventional war, emerging power competition, as well as the persistent challenge of violent non-state actors? I argue that multinational military exercises provide a tool for major powers to reduce the unpredictability of non-state threats as well as to weaken other powers through balancing and regime-promotion. The number of multinational exercises has increased substantially since the Cold War, which is puzzling given the end of superpower rivalry and incentives to enjoy the peace dividend. Textual analysis and regressions of over a thousand multinational military exercises from 1980-2016 reveal that major powers reacted to an increase in strategic uncertainty by implementing exercises as a means to combat ambiguous non-state threats. Yet as major power competition becomes more intense, I expect major powers to leverage these same types of exercises to undermine one another.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, and Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

107. Women, Gender, and Terrorism: Understanding Cultural and Organizational Differences

Author:
Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Jeannette Gaudry
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:
As the idea that women can and should play pivotal roles in preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) gains greater traction, decision makers and scholars must keep striving toward a more nuanced understanding of the historical, cultural, and gendered contexts that enable extremist movements and organizations to grow. Without study, research, discussion, and stronger links with local actors and scholars to gain contextual understanding, U.S. analysts and policymakers risk creating a catalog of programs and policies internationally that include and empower women but fail to stem the tide of extremism and violence. Increasing women’s empowerment and strengthening their roles in community life, peace, and security are important steps, but even these can fail or backfire without deep cultural understanding.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Women, and Violence
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

108. Mixed, Perilous and Other Migrations: Do African Lives Matter?

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This is a trying period for anyone that pays attention to African migration. Migrants’ gruesome deaths while in transit are given more coverage. Of these, those in the Mediterranean Sea, and to a lesser extent, the Sahara Desert make it more into the news. But there are also deaths in places in-between. Some are reported. Others are not. One only gets glimpses of such deaths when repatriated migrants mention or lament them. There has been more coverage of Libyan “Slave auctions,” at least after CNN released taped evidence from such markets (Elbagir, Razek, Platt, & Jones, 2017). The African Union (AU) and selected African states, including Nigeria, (which by dint of its sheer population size in the African continent, has more citizens caught up in the movements of migrants intent on getting out of their countries to realize dreams of social, economic and political security elsewhere), belatedly responded (Ibuot & Okopie, 2017; Daily Nation, 2017; Busari, 2017). Some have not bothered to do so. It is amazing that Nigeria and other African countries have embassies and diplomatic representative in Libya, yet, there was no previous report, awareness, response, nor were any measures whatsoever taken to document, respond to, and correct the abuses of citizens and violation of their human rights. What then is the value and utility of diplomatic representation? How do African governments understand their responsibilities to citizens? What is the function of the media in these countries? What is the duty of the AU?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Human Rights, Migration, Media, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

109. Insight on Syria: A Quagmire of Warring Religious Groups? Why the Western View is Misguided

Author:
Melani Cammett
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
opular discourse, especially in the West, presents the current conflict in Syria as part of an age-old struggle between the Sunni and Shi’a communities within Islam. Despite the sectarian trappings of the conflict, these divisions are not the root cause of the war in Syria. Rather, the hyperpoliticization of sectarian identities is one of the outcomes—and an increasingly salient one as conflict progresses. The origins of the Syrian war lie in much more mundane political and economic grievances. Despite steady economic growth and an extensive public welfare infrastructure, the vast majority of the population was excluded from the fruits of development and faced thwarted aspirations for social mobility and political expression. Rising poverty rates, endemic corruption, the poor quality of social services and government repression—factors present to varying degrees elsewhere in the Middle East—constituted a critical background to the Syrian uprising, even if they do not predict precisely why and when individual protestors took to the streets. More proximately, the evolution of a peaceful uprising into a full-blown civil war was sparked by the regime’s response to the initial waves of demonstrations. On March 13, 2011, several teenagers in rural Dara’a in southern Syria spray-painted the slogan of the uprisings, al-sha’ab yurid isqat al-nizam, or “the people want the fall of the regime,” on walls in their town. Government security forces arrested the young men and tortured them, inciting peaceful demonstrations by family members calling for the boys’ release. Syrian forces then cracked down violently, spurring other protests across the country.
Topic:
Civil War, Religion, Sectarianism, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

110. Women, Gender and Terrorism: Understanding Cultural and Organizational Differences

Author:
Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Jeannette Gaudry
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:
As the idea that women can and should play pivotal roles in preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) gains greater traction, decision makers and scholars must keep striving toward a more nuanced understanding of the historical, cultural, and gendered contexts that enable extremist movements and organizations to grow.
Topic:
Political Violence, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Culture, Women, Violence, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Global Focus