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1071. The Economics of War

Author:
Jake Sherman
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Greed and grievance, or “need, creed and greed,” are all important sources of conflict, though the relative weight of each factor varies across cases and across time. Poverty, social inequality, rapid economic decline, large numbers of young unemployed males, and polarized identity politics may all provide the necessary catalyst for conflict, particularly when accompanied by repressive, illegal or extralegal behavior on the part of governments. Yet, as World Bank economist Paul Collier cautions, what motivates conflict and what makes it feasible are separate issues. In general, the existence of some form of grievance, whether economic, political, or social in nature, appears to be the most persuasive motivation for conflict. Greed, or, more broadly, economic motivations — whether the pursuit of resources for war-financing or for elite self-enrichment—appear more significant in sustaining, prolonging, and transforming conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations

1072. Kosovo in Limbo: State-Building and "Substantial Autonomy"

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Complex peace operations that involve state-building functions are difficult even when the political outcome is clear, as it is in East Timor. In situations such as Kosovo, where the final status of the territory under administration remains unclear, every aspect of state-building is more politically sensitive and more operationally complex. When this occurs in a highly militarized environment and in an unstable region, any departure from a supposedly “interim” solution becomes more difficult still. The Dayton Accords in Bosnia show the dangers of a difficult peace agreement evolving into a constitutional framework that is both unworkable and impossible to change. The conclusion of hostilities may provide the best incentive for belligerents to compromise, but it may subsequently become impossible to reopen such questions without the threat of renewed violence. Future peace agreements are therefore likely to contain state-building provisions that international institutions will assume the task of overseeing, in some situations without a clear political endpoint and exit strategy. In Kosovo, the elections slated for November 17, 2001, reflect a desire for measurable progress and an indication of when the mission will end. An April 2001 report by the UN Secretary-General on this topic was entitled “No exit without strategy”, warning that the UN has too often withdrawn or dramatically altered a peacekeeping operation, only to see the situation remain unstable or sink into renewed violence. Unfortunately, the attitude of lead actors within the Security Council is too often “no strategy without an exit”. State-building after a war will always take years, perhaps decades, and it is disingenuous to suggest otherwise to domestic publics. Elections and limited devolution notwithstanding, the international community will remain in Kosovo and Bosnia for the foreseeable future, certainly with a strong military presence and with at least a supervisory civilian authority. This is an undesirable outcome of what NATO styles as humanitarian interventions, but it is better than all the alternatives. The fact that UNMIK will remain in control of Kosovo for the foreseeable future raises the question of how it should govern. Within UNMIK, there is an increasing tension between those who regard respect for human rights and the rule of law as central to the institution-building aspect of UNMIK's mandate, and those who see this as secondary to the over-riding concerns of peace and security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, and Kosovo

1073. Managing Security Challenges in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding

Author:
Sheila Coutts and Kelvin Ong
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
While a functioning security sector provides the cornerstone for stable and democratic post-conflict societies, the record of the international community in establishing this critical function is mixed. Despite repeatedly having to manage the immediate post-conflict situation in various peace operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America, the international community still fails to take the state of the local security sector adequately into account when planning its own intervention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America

1074. The Challenges of Strategic Coordination: Containing Opposition and Sustaining Implementation of Peace Agreements in Civil Wars

Author:
Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
“Strategic coordination” is shorthand for efforts to respond to three common challenges facing thirdparty implementers of peace agreements: incoherence between the mediation and the implementation phases; conflicting approaches within a given phase; and fragmented, contradictory efforts to implement a given strategy. At worst, failure to deal with these challenges can undermine a peace process; at best, they add costs, reduce effectiveness, and slow success.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations

1075. Private Sector Actors in Zones of Conflict: Research Challenges and Policy Responses

Author:
Jake Sherman
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Increasing attention is being paid to the involvement and the relative influence of international private sector actors in the political economy of countries and regions experiencing violent conflict. This expert workshop was convened in order to assess the nature of business activity as it relates to violent conflict, to delineate areas where further research is needed, and to consider what policy responses may be needed to mitigate the potentially destabilizing effects of private sector activity in war-torn countries.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations

1076. Refashioning the Dialogue: Regional Perspectives on the Brahimi Report on UN Operations

Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
There is no single “developing world” perspective on UN peace operations — nor, indeed, a single perspective from each of the regions that took part in the consultation. Nevertheless, some broad themes emerged in the course of discussion, conditioned by particular regional experiences with such operations. Each of the meetings emphasized the importance of the Brahimi Report and took note of the timing and resource constraints that limited the scope of the Report essentially to peacekeeping. All meetings in the developing world, where people feel marginalized from UN decision-making, rued the lateness of the consultative process, noting that building a constituency for UN peace operations requires more extensive, deeper, and earlier consultation with a broad range of regional and local actors. At the New York meeting one permanent representative observed that, returning to the organization after a fifteen-year absence, he saw that the UN, too, was now being affected by the global demand for transparency and accountability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
New York

1077. Srebrenica: The Dutch Dabra and Shatilla

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
In the UN safe area of Srebrenica, 6-8,000 Bosnian Moslems were murdered in July 1995 by the Bosnian Serbs, making it the largest civilian massacre in Europe since the Holocaust. The United Nations leaders, those of their peace-keeping forces, and the Dutch government had known for some time that the enclave was not defensible and had not taken adequate protective measures. Although aware that Serbs were executing Bosnian Moslems, the Dutch UN forces fled the area. Before that, Dutch soldiers helped separate the Bosnian men from the women. No UN or Dutch political or military leaders have ever been held accountable for their failure to prevent these crimes.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

1078. Toward Smart Sanctions on Iraq

Author:
George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The United States should seek to limit Iraqi designs to develop weapons of mass destruction by supporting a UN-sponsored 'smart' sanctions mechanism. Smart sanctions would involve a tightened system of border monitoring and verification with an eye toward control of dual-use technologies. Financial controls through the UN escrow account should be retained to limit Iraq's purchasing abilities in the global marketplace. Private accounts of Iraqi elites should also be frozen to limit purchases of dual-use goods or expertise. The elimination of the blunt general trade sanctions, which are already leaking, would lift a considerable burden off the Iraqi people.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

1079. Brazil — IMF Agreement

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The real is stabilising against the dollar following the announcement of the latest draft agreement between Brazil and the IMF on August 3. The provision of additional resources by the Fund is designed to support the value of the real and prevent the Brazilian economy from sliding into recession.
Topic:
International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

1080. Afghanistan — Offensive Spring

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers yesterday began a visit to western Afghanistan to assess the country's deepening humanitarian crisis. Extreme drought and an intensification of the country's chronic war following a winter lull in fighting are likely to exacerbate famine and displacement of population. However, despite the emergence of a disaster which the international community will find difficult to ignore, UN sanctions against the Taliban, which controls 90% of the country, have done nothing either to curtail the movement's depredations against the population under its control or dampen its enthusiasm for a spring offensive. Peace for Afghanistan remains unrealistic as it enters its ninth year of civil war. Indeed, in the short term the total collapse of the country's agricultural system is likely to produce an influx of new recruits for this cycle of violence. However, evidence of a growing fractiousness within the Taliban could result in an emergence of a more moderate faction amenable both to dialogue with the international community and an accommodation with opposition forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia