Search

Begin New Search Topic Treaties and Agreements

601. Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A preliminary breakthrough in the two-decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a framework agreement on basic principles – may be within reach. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in substantial accord on principles first outlined by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group in 2005. A basic principles agreement, while only a foundation to build on, is crucial to maintain momentum for a peace deal. Important differences remain on specifics of a subsequent final deal. Movement toward Armenia-Turkey rapprochement after a century of hostility has brought opportunity also for ending the Nagorno-Karabakh stalemate. Sustainable regional peace requires compromises on all the quarrels, but there is backlash danger, especially in Armenia, where public discontent could derail the Nagorno-Karabakh framework agreement. Presidents Sarkisian (Armenia) and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) need to do more to prepare their publics. The U.S., Russia and France, Minsk Group co-chairs, have stepped up collective efforts, but more is needed to emphasise dangers in clinging to an untenable status quo.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia

602. Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem ? On 16 November 2008, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. When they meet in Pittsburgh, on 24 September 2009, they will have an opportunity to review that commitment and to decide how best to act on it. The advice they have received to date focuses on international monitoring and short-term responses to the global economic crisis. These measures do little to deal with the underlying causes of protectionism.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

603. Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers

Author:
Rory Medcalf and Amandeep Gill
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
To reduce the grave dangers posed by the continued existence and spread of nuclear weapons, and the risk that they will one day again be used, unconventional diplomacy is needed. Part of the problem is the way in which global agreements or pragmatic interim solutions are often obstructed by longstanding divisions among nations: nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members and nonmembers; Western states and the non-aligned. New partnerships and platforms for dialogue could cut across these stale categories, at least on some issues, and expand the space for agreement and new thinking. Australia and India could take the lead in crafting one such new partnership.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Australia/Pacific

604. Eurozone Unity Under Threat?

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ten years after the introduction of the euro, the onset of deep recession in the Eurozone has triggered concern that the single currency might impose intolerable strains upon some members. With some countries hit hard by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the euro and even the existence of the Eurozone. With the Eurozone economy forecast to contract by 3.1% this year, unemployment is starting to climb steeply and fiscal deficits are soaring. This has raised concerns about deteriorating public finances in a number of countries, leading to sharply wider spreads on government bonds and credit rating downgrades for Greece, Spain and Portugal, with Ireland maybe facing a similar fate soon. And repercussions from the growing economic crisis in Central and Eastern Europe are adding to the problem, with Austria particularly exposed. Rising bond spreads were always intended to be the mechanism that would restrain public spending by more profligate Eurozone countries. But the question now is whether the weaker economies can withstand the strains that a lengthy period of recession will impose and, at the same time, adopt credible medium-term spending plans to ward off the worst of the downturn and retain market confidence. With fiscal deficits already rising as a result of bank bailouts, fiscal packages and recession will push budget deficits far above the 3% of GDP target – Ireland, facing a deficit of 12% of GDP, and Spain will be worst hit. And with rising deficits and higher bond spreads pushing up the cost of debt, countries face a sharp rise in their level of indebtedness, with Greece and Italy seeing debt/GDP ratios around 100%. This deterioration could lead to a further downward spiral if the recession is prolonged and will be a test of countries' euro commitment, which has remained strong thus far despite rising social tensions in some countries. At this stage, the problems remain manageable and the risk of default or of countries leaving the euro is still very low. Bond spreads are still much lower than during much of the 1990s, when countries were striving to qualify for euro membership, and the currency risks attached to leaving the euro would be substantial. Moreover, EU countries that have been exposed to considerable currency strain over the past year are anxious to join the Eurozone as soon as possible, to take advantage of the benefits of a stable currency. While some smaller countries may experience financial difficulties, it seems inevitable that the larger Eurozone members would step in to stabilise the situation – failure to do so would risk contagion spreading to other countries, which in turn would cause even deeper problems for the euro. More policy action also seems likely to counter this threat – although the German government will probably remain reluctant to countenance the scale of expansionary fiscal policy really needed at this time. Current policies inevitably mean a long hard slog back towards fiscal rectitude in the years ahead, with monetary policy also tightening and growth slower than previously expected. Fiscal federalism may also have to be on the agenda. All this will undoubtedly lead to ongoing strains within the Eurozone. And any measures by governments that appear to be protectionist – such as the support for the French car industry – will only fuel these tensions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

605. Reclaiming Israeli-Syrian Talks

Author:
Ufuk Ulutaş
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Israeli-Syrian track has been an important component of the Arab-Israeli peace talks due to its integral role in reaching comprehensive peace in the Middle East. The latest round of indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria was initiated under the sponsorship of Turkey on May 21, 2008, and by the end of 2008 both sides were ready to start the direct talks. However, in protest of Israeli aerial and ground offensive in Gaza in December 2008, Syria halted the indirect talks with Israel. Several factors, including the lack of American endorsement; Olmert's weak prospect in Israel due to the ongoing corruption investigation; approaching early elections, and the rise of rightist parties in Israel, topped by the Israeli offensive in Gaza, rendered the conciliation efforts futile.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria

606. Partnerships for Women's Health: Striving for Best Practice within the UN Global Compact

Author:
Monika Kruesmann and Martina Timmermann
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Women represent the great majority of the world's poor. With this poverty comes a range of well-documented problems: low educational attainment; low income and earning potential; inferior social power, status and influence compared with men; and importantly, poor health outcomes for both women and their children. High rates of maternal mortality and morbidity remain apparently intractable problems in many countries, particularly developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that every minute, at least one woman dies from complications related to pregnancy and childbirth; and 20 more suffer injury, infection or disease.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Health, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

607. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: PARSING THE OPTIONS

Author:
Michael Dziedzic and Megan Chabalowski
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On June 25, 2009, USIP hosted a public forum, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Parsing the Options,” where various courses of action for U.S. policy toward Bosnia and its unfinished state-building were debated. At issue are Bosnia's current conditions and what to do about them: Is the country on a trajectory toward instability and violence, or is it making hesitant progress? What is needed to overcome ethnic tensions between Bosnia's political leaders and how can the international community induce them into productive negotiations over reforms? What should the U.S.'s role be in Bosnia's integration process into the EU?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

608. Agricultural Dumping Under NAFTA: Estimating the Costs of U.S. Agricultural Policies to Mexican Producers

Author:
Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
With the opening of the Mexican economy under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexican agriculture came under new competitive pressures from U.S. exports. It was widely recognized at the beginning of NAFTA that Mexico had geographically-based comparative advantages in supplying off-season fruits and vegetables to a hungry U.S. market. NAFTA's liberalization of agricultural trade produced the expected results, with more staple crops and meats flowing south and more seasonal fruits and vegetables flowing north. In agriculture, tariffs and quotas have now mostly been eliminated. Not so agricultural subsidies, which were left largely undisciplined by NAFTA. High U.S. farm subsidies for exported crops, which compete with Mexican products, have prompted charges that the level playing field NAFTA was supposed to create is in fact tilted heavily in favor of the United States.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and North America

609. The Judgement of the German Constitutional Court on the Lisbon Treaty

Author:
Michael Bothe
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By its judgment of 30 June 2009, the German Federal Constitutional Court cleared the way for the German ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The reasoning of the Court, however, contains fundamental holdings on the current legal character of the European Union and on constitutional limitations concerning its possible development.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

610. Eastern Partnership and Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Old Wine in New Skins?

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 7 May 2009 in Prague the European Union inaugurated its Eastern Partnership (EaP). The initiative is based on a Polish-Swedish proposal of May 2008, which was held in standby until 2009. It took a full-blown war for the EU to pull this proposal out of the closet, as the August 2008 Georgian-Russian conflict and the ensuing Russian recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia posed new challenges to European foreign policy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Georgia, and Sweden