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41. North Korea’s Public Relations Strategy, 2018

Author:
Eun A Jo
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Tension on the Korean Peninsula had reached a boiling point by the time Kim Jong-un delivered his New Year’s address—a tradition set by his grandfather that he had revived in 2013. Beyond the talk of a “nuclear button,” which triggered another round of fiery exchanges with Donald Trump, Kim devoted a considerable segment of his speech to calling for improved inter-Korean relations. Though signaling an ambiguous friendly overture to the South has become an annual exercise for Kim, this year’s speech was uncharacteristically specific in that he offered to send a delegation to South Korea’s highly anticipated Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. But sports diplomacy is hardly new to Kim; an avid sports fan himself, Kim is acutely aware of its propaganda value and utility as a channel for diplomacy. For Kim, the Pyeongchang Olympics presented a timely opportunity to remake the regime’s flailing image at home and abroad. In this chapter, the Pyeongchang Olympics are used as a case study to understand Kim’s public relations strategy. Before exploring the strategic intentions behind Kim’s diplomatic campaign, both the old and new features of his image-making efforts are examined, focusing in particular on his use of sports diplomacy. How Kim’s charm offensive in Pyeongchang is communicated internally and received externally is then analyzed, yielding important insights about the prospects of reconciliation between the two Koreas post-Olympics.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Public Relations, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

42. North Korea's Strategy in 2018

Author:
KEI
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
What does North Korea seek at a time of unprecedented sanctions and pressure against it and suddenly developing opportunity, as South Korea and four great powers explore diplomatic overtures? This set of four chapters completed at the height of anticipation for summits in 2018 approaches Pyongyang’s strategy from diverse angles: public relations—how it is striving to shape images of itself, beginning by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics; diplomacy—how it is engaging one state after another to forge an ideal diplomatic environment for securing maximum concessions; economy— how it is coping with sanctions and preparing to realize byungjin by boosting the economic side while deriving credit from the military side; and military—how it continues to develop threat capacities and prepare for contingencies. There is a lot that is unknown about what is driving Kim Jong-un’s behavior with some accentuating the strength achieved by building his threat capacity and others emphasizing the weakness exposed by draconian sanctions. These chapters explore the drivers behind his moves through the lens of strategic objectives, recognizing that the North Korean leader sees a mix of opportunities. This volume covers well into the spring of 2018—including the New Year’s Day address by Kim Jong-un that opened the door to a public relations blitz, the delegations sent to South Korea to kick-start “smile diplomacy” against the backdrop of the Winter Olympic Games, the personal diplomacy by Kim with South Korean officials followed by his outreach to Donald Trump and then a hurried visit to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, and finally the Panmunjom summit with Moon Jae-in in the last week of April. This whirlwind of public relations and diplomacy against diverse interpretations of their economic and military background captured the world’s attention. Yet, Kim’s strategic intentions largely remain a mystery. Does he expect to retain his missiles and nuclear weapons and be recognized as one of the nuclear powers on essentially equal footing with the world’s great military powers? Does he seek to cut a grand bargain, eliminating these threatening weapons in return for acceptance in the international community with guarantees of security and bountiful economic assistance? Is Kim Jong-un playing a multi-stage game with long-term objectives hidden as he capitalizes on differences among five countries to maneuver in ways still difficult to fathom? Much remains unknown, as we delve into his strategic choices.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Economy, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

43. Integrated Results Based Management in Botswana: Institutions, Documentation and Progress to Date

Author:
Gape Kaboyakgosi and Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
National and international pressure on governments to provide tangible and demonstrable results for public action has become a major preoccupation of many governments and international donors (Kettl, 1997; Norman, 2002; Moynihan, 2006; Mayne, 2007). The Integrated Results Based Management (IRBM) system has been found to be a very powerful instrument for achieving this aim (World Bank, 2001; Koshy and Thomas, 2007; OECD, 2009). This paper analyses Botswana’s efforts at implementing the IRBM system. IRBM is a way of reforming public sectors through helping governments focus on proper, well-timed achievement of relevant goals and objectives. Such reform is carried out through the utilisation of strategic planning, systematic implementation and resource usage, performance monitoring, measurement and reporting as well as systematic use of performance information to improve policy decision making and programme performance at all levels (Koshy and Thomas, 2007). IRBM is, therefore, a way of improving implementation by linking budgetary and human resources systems, and producing timely quality information that is linked through entire government organs.
Topic:
Governance, Institutions, Management, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

44. Air Power Trends in Northeast Asia: Implications for Japan and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Mark Stokes and Oriana Skylar Mastro
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The shifting balance of aerospace power in Northeast Asia is creating an increasingly uncertain strategic environment for Japan. Japan is warily eyeing China’s growing military might while also vigilantly watching Russia’s airpower modernization efforts and North Korea’s bellicose actions to the north. The weight of these developments—how newfound and resurging military power will be employed in particular—are tilting and tipping the scale of regional aerospace power. Among these, China is drawing the most attention from Japanese long-term strategic planners as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rapidly advances its capacity to apply aerospace power for defense against perceived threats to national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Alliance, Strategic Planning, and Aerospace
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

45. Turkey's Strategy in the Changing World

Author:
Atilla Sandikli
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
At the last quarter of 20th century, Cold War ended and technological advances in general with significant progresses in communication in particular have generated the phenomenon of globalization. The developments in financial markets and in real economy not only spread through geographical boundaries of nation states but also influence economic, technologic, and socio-cultural spheres decisively. National and international spaces as well as local and global domains are increasingly intertwined. Further beyond the interdependencies among states there are emerging new fields of cooperation and of common interests between societies. Democratic values and awareness on human rights are becoming universally shared norms as their applications expand conspicuously. Pluralist democratic regimes that respect human rights and that achieve a just income distribution provide better welfare systems for their publics. These regimes, in the long term, contribute stability and peace at domestic, regional and international levels. Accordingly, geopolitical weight of the states maintaining such regimes increases.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

46. Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Clint Watts, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Vahid Brown
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
During the early 1990s, al-Qa’ida was beginning to coalesce as an organization, honing its operational techniques and dealing with its first internal conflicts. Its private deliberations during this period are revealed by a trove of documents captured in the course of operations supporting the Global War on Terror and maintained in the Department of Defense’s Harmony Database. Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa draws on recently declassified Harmony documents, predominately from the 1992-1994 time period, original field work by CTC personnel, and careful country studies. The Horn provides the backdrop for an intriguing tale of al-Qa’ida’s first efforts to expand beyond Afghanistan and Sudan. As recounted by its leaders and operatives, al- Qa’ida’s efforts to establish a presence in this region and use it as a base for attacks against Western targets elsewhere were largely a failure. Conventional wisdom suggests that Somalia, a failed state, would be an ideal safe haven for al-Qa’ida. Our analysis, however, indicates that weakly governed regions such as coastal Kenya, not failed states like Somalia, provide an environment more conducive to al-Qa’ida’s activities. In Somalia, al-Qa’ida’s members fell victim to many of the same challenges that plague Western interventions in the Horn. They were prone to extortion and betrayal, found themselves trapped in the middle of incomprehensible (to them) clan conflicts, faced suspicion from the indigenous population, had to overcome significant logistical constraints and were subject to the constant risk of Western military interdiction. This report assesses al-Qa’ida’s operations in the Horn of Africa by identifying the organizational challenges al-Qa’ida faced in managing the jihad in the Horn. We also examine the individual motivations of the Somali clans and people that largely resisted al-Qa’ida’s recruitment efforts in the region. After reviewing al-Qa`ida’s Horn operations from a theoretical standpoint, we analyze al-Qa`ida’s prospects in two key Horn countries: Somalia and Kenya. The nations composing the Horn of Africa are often aggregated into one overall counterterrorism strategy. However, each Horn country and even sub-regions within these countries present a unique set of socioeconomic, political and religious factors that create specific challenges and opportunities to both al-Qa’ida and to counterterrorism forces. We conclude this study by identifying concepts and techniques that may be applicable in other regions based upon al-Qa’ida’s experiences in the Horn. Our primary conclusion is that the U.S. and its coalition partners should prioritize counterterrorism efforts on weak states–not failed ones. Both types of states demand attention but require different policy solutions. Effective and sustainable counterterrorism in failed states requires engaging with sub-state authorities to give them the means and the motivation to resist foreign intrusion. In weak states, successful counterterrorism policies must address core institutional and governance problems that render such states unable or unwilling to fully deal with the threat. Perversely, U.S. support to state and local counterterrorism efforts can create incentives to tolerate low levels of terrorism, a problem best addressed by conditioning aid on counterterrorism effort rather than on the presence of a threat.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Leadership, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Somalia