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2991. Can the Somalia Crisis Be Contained?

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia has been drifting toward a new war since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was formed in late 2004 but the trend has recently accelerated dramatically. The stand-off between the TFG and its Ethiopian ally on the one hand, and the Islamic Courts, which now control Mogadishu, on the other, threatens to escalate into a wider conflict that would consume much of the south, destabilise peaceful territories like Somaliland and Puntland and possibly involve terrorist attacks in neighbouring countries unless urgent efforts are made by both sides and the international community to put together a government of national unity.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

2992. The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria's Delta Unrest

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A potent cocktail of poverty, crime and corruption is fuelling a militant threat to Nigeria's reliability as a major oil producer. Since January 2006, fighters from a new group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), have fought with government forces, sabotaged oil installations, taken foreign oil workers hostage and carried out two lethal car bombings. MEND demands the government withdraw troops, release imprisoned ethnic leaders and grant oil revenue concessions to Delta groups. The Nigerian government needs to forge far-reaching reforms to administration and its approach to revenue sharing, the oil companies to involve credible, community-based organisations in their development efforts and Western governments to pay immediate attention to improving their own development aid.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2993. Iraq and the Kurds: The Brewing Battle over Kirkuk?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As all eyes are turned toward efforts to stabilise Iraq, the conflict that has been percolating in Kirkuk remains dangerous and dangerously neglected. That struggle is equal parts street brawl over oil riches, ethnic competition over identity between Kurdish, Turkoman, Arab and Assyrian-Chaldean communities, and titanic clash between two nations, Arab and Kurd. Given the high stakes, the international community cannot afford to stand by, allowing the situation to slip into chaos by default. It needs to step in and propose a solution that addresses all sides' core concerns without crossing their existential red lines. The most viable negotiated outcome, which a special UN envoy should mediate between leaders of Kirkuk's communities as well as representatives of the federal government and the Kurdish federal region, would rest on the following provisions: Postponing the constitutionally-mandated referendum on Kirkuk's status which, in today's environment, would only exacerbate tensions; Designating Kirkuk governorate as a stand-alone federal region falling neither under the Kurdish federal region nor directly under the federal government for an interim period; Equitable power-sharing arrangements between Kirkuk's four principal communities; and continued reversal of past abuses, including managed return of those who were forcibly displaced by previous regimes; facilities and compensation for those brought by previous regimes (including their offspring) who agree to leave voluntarily; resolution of property disputes via the established mechanism; and a process by which former Kirkuk districts can either be restored to Kirkuk governorate or remain where they are.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Security
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Kurdistan, and Kirkuk

2994. The UN and Peacekeeping: taking the strain?

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The summer of 2006 was open season for political sniping at United Nations peace operations, bookended by wrangling over the Darfur conflict and the Israel/Hizbollah conflict in the Lebanon. In early June, a delegation of Security Council ambassadors visited Sudan to negotiate the deployment of around 15,000 troops to Darfur. They were promptly followed by the organisation's Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping, Jean-Marie Guéhenno. But a combined total of a month's negotiations failed to deliver any deal.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Sudan, Israel, and Lebanon

2995. East of the Middle East: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and U.S. security implications

Author:
Tim Murphy
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan represented an eastward shift in the United States' international focus. Previously concentrated on the Middle East, the United States has reconfigured its foreign policy directives to include interests east of the Middle East. The shift was long overdue. Central Asia is a rising regional security concern, and Chinese and Russian actions therein have cultivated robust political ties. Resulting cooperatives and agreements promote Chinese and Russian regional objectives. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) originally consisted of five Central Asian and Asian countries (the Shanghai Five), ostensibly to unify signatories on economic, social and political platforms. However, the SCO is often a proxy to advance Chinese and Russian interests.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2996. Iraqi Tribunal Imposes Death Sentence on Saddam Hussein

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The Iraqi High Tribunal (IHT), or Iraqi Higher Criminal Court, previously known as the Iraqi Special Tribunal (IST), announced Nov. 5, 2006, that it was sentencing former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein Al-Majeed to death by hanging. The verdict comes in the first prosecution Saddam has faced before the tribunal, for the 1982 mass killing of villagers in the Shia town of Dujayl and related atrocities. Bringing Saddam and his henchmen to justice has posed unique challenges to an Iraq that seeks to make a former totalitarian dictatorship subject to rule of law, and in the process respect rule of law by providing fair trials. Unclear is the extent to which efforts to establish an historical record of atrocities, and undertake national healing, would be thwarted by executing Saddam before he can be tried for additional incidents. Of added significance are concerns raised by some voices that the death penalty itself is immoral and inconsistent with rule of law.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2997. Afghan Update: Oct. 1 – Oct. 31, 2006

Author:
Thomas Keller
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
On Oct. 2 two U.S. and one Afghan soldier were killed in an insurgent attack in Kunar province. Three Americans were also wounded. A U.S. patrol was targeted by a suicide bomber in eastern Afghanistan on Oct. 7 – the five-year anniversary of the launch of Operation Enduring Freedom – no casualties were reported. Six men delivering aid from American forces were killed by a roadside bomb in eastern Afghanistan on Oct. 14. U.S.-led coalition and Afghan troops raided an insurgent hideout in Ghazni Province on Oct. 17; one soldier was wounded and three militants killed.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

2998. The Limits and Liabilities of Missile Defense

Author:
Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This analysis first appeared in the November 2006 issue of Current History. “The most effective route in dealing with nuclear and missile proliferation threats may be through creative diplomacy, not military technology.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation

2999. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1998-2005

Author:
Richard F. Grimmett
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This report is prepared annually to provide Congress with official, unclassified, quantitative data on conventional arms transfers to developing nations by the United States and foreign countries for the preceding eight calendar years for use in its various policy oversight functions. All agreement and delivery data in this report for the United States are government-to-government (FMS) transactions. Some general data are provided on worldwide conventional arms transfers by all suppliers, but the principal focus is the level of arms transfers by major weapons suppliers to nations in the developing world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

3000. Fear of China is overplayed

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
WASHINGTON -China is rapidly becoming, to many U.S. conservatives, the primary menace to U.S. national security. In fact, the attitude seems to be that China is the new Soviet bear. This mentality would have you believe that any gains by China are directly at the expense of the United States. But this attitude is unsubstantiated and based largely on racism -- which it would behoove the United States to drop immediately.
Topic:
Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia