The new 2009 defense budget has just been released. The more you look into the numbers, the more things become unclear, very unclear. Most of the numbers that have been released are inaccurate or incomplete, or both. Other numbers will change as the year progresses, but we do not know if they will go up or down.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Debt, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Until Dec. 27, the "success" of U.S. President George Bush's defiant rejection of the American public's repudiation of his Iraq and Afghanistan war policies – evidenced by the November 2006 congressional election – looked to be the most significant aspect of major armed conflicts around the world during 2007.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
The crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan is beyond the point where more troops will help. U.S. strategy must be to seek compromise with insurgents while addressing regional rivalries and insecurities.
The real decision-maker in Iran is Supreme Leader Khamenei not President Ahmadinejad. Blaming Iran's problems on President Ahmadinejad inaccurately suggests that Iran's problems will go away when Ahmadinejad does.
Police reform in Afghanistan is receiving more attention and resources than ever before, but such increased efforts are still yet to be matched by significant improvements in police effectiveness and public confidence. Too much emphasis has continued to be placed on using the police to fight the insurgency rather than crime. Corruption and political appointments are derailing attempts to professionalise the force. The government and the international community need to reinforce the International Policing Coordination Board (IPCB) as the central forum for prioritising efforts and drive forward with much greater unity of effort. Tangible steps such as appointing a career police commissioner and establishing community liaison boards will build professionalism and wider outreach. A national police force able to uphold the rule of law is crucial to state-building and would help tackle the root causes of alienation that drive the insurgency.
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A car belonging to an official believed to be a relative of Musa Medov, Ingushetia's Interior Minister, was blown up in Nazran on October 8. The opposition Ingushetia.org website reported that a powerful explosion took place 100 meters from the Interior Ministry building in Nazran while Itar-Tass quoted a source as saying that the explosion was an attempt on the life of Daud Medov, the deputy head of the Interior Ministry's vehicle maintenance department. According to Newsru.com, the blast was caused by an explosive device that was attached to the undercarriage of Medov's Lada Priora car and that the bomb went off when the car was parked outside his home and as Medov had left his home and gone outside. Neither Medov nor anyone else was hurt in the blast, but the car was burned out.
A fundamental shift is taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. The Doha process focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the negotiating agenda. The paper advances five propositions: (1) the traditional negotiating dynamic, driven by private-sector interests largely in the rich countries, is running out of steam; (2) the world economy is moving broadly from conditions of relative abundance to relative scarcity, and so economic security has become a paramount concern for consumers, workers, and ordinary citizens; (3) international economic integration can contribute to enhanced security; (4) addressing these new concerns-relating to food, energy, and economic security-requires a wider agenda of multilateral cooperation, involving not just the World Trade Organization but other multilateral institutions as well; and (5) despite shifts in economic power across countries, the commonality of interests and scope for give-and-take on these new issues make multilateral cooperation worth attempting.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Half a century after independence, African elites, at least those in conflict ridden countries, often live in constant fear for their life. Real or invented coup attempts, political assassinations, beatings of opposition leaders, the distribution of death lists, etc. have a profoundly traumatizing and self perpetuating effect. Purges, not least in the security apparatus, are not uncommon, particularly after changes in government, be they peaceful or violent. These purges come at a cost: the excluded elites are frequently tempted to use violence to come back into the “dining room”and the excluding government tries to prevent reentry by all means.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Central African Republic, and Ivory Coast
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A suicide bomber attacked the motorcade of Ingush Interior Minister Musa Medov on September 30. The Moscow Times reported on October 1 that the male bomber attempted to ram a Lada hatchback packed with explosives into Medov's convoyin downtown Nazran at 8:20 a.m., local time, but the car exploded before it collided with the minister's armored Mercedessedan. According to Gazeta.ru, Ingush prosecutors said Medov and his bodyguards were unharmed, while five by standers were wounded and several houses in the vicinity of the blast were damaged. Kommersant reported on October 1 that amongthe injured were a taxi driver and his passenger who were driving by when the bomb detonated and two women living in apartment buildings nearby.
The Honorable Thomas Ridge is President and CEO of Ridge Global LLC. From January 2003 to February 2005, he served as the nation's first Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Before becoming Secretary, he served as President Bush's Homeland Security Advisor, and in that capacity developed and coordinated a comprehensive national strategy to strengthen protections against terrorist threats in the United States in the wake of the September 11 attacks. Between 1995 and 2001, he was twice elected Governor of the State of Pennsylvania.